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Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP) Intrinsic Value & Margin of Safety | SafetyMargin.io

Consumer Defensive › Beverages - Brewers

Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP) Stock Overview

Market Cap: $8.35B

Molson Coors Beverage Company manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells beer and other malt beverage products in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It offers flavored malt beverages including hard seltzers, craft, spirits, and ready to drink beverages.

Mar 19, 2026$42.28

1Y -27.5%

Rewards

★Share count has been reduced by 12% over the past 4 years through buybacks, increasing each share's claim on earnings.
★6 insider purchases over the past 12 months with a buy/sell ratio above 3:1 — a sustained pattern of insider confidence.
★FCF yield of 12.8% is historically attractive — the business generates significant cash relative to its price.

Risks

⚠Altman Z-Score of 1.39 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.

TAP Key Valuation Metrics

Free Cash Flow

$1.07B

FCF Yield

12.79%

Trailing P/E

N/A

Forward P/E

8.36

ROIC

7.00%

ROE

-20.29%

Gross Margin

38.37%

PEG Ratio

N/A

Debt / Equity

0.62

Interest Coverage

N/A

Net Debt / EBITDA

2.34

Dividend Yield

4.54%

TAP Historical Fundamentals

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

TAP $1 Retained Earnings Test

N/A

Net losses over 3 years — test not applicable

Company had negative cumulative retained earnings

Σ Retained

$-1.17B

Δ Market Cap

$-2.24B

Δ Earning Power

$-21.83B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 retained, how much value did management create?
Market Value = market's verdict (mood-sensitive) · Earning Power = owner earnings / discount rate (mood-independent)

TAP Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

46.4% Margin of Safety

Price is 46.4% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $42.28

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $78.85

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Parameter	Min (Bear)Value	BaseValue	Max (Bull)Value
Initial Cash Flow
Growth Rate (Yr 1-5)	%	%	%
Growth Rate (Yr 6-10)	%	%	%
Terminal Growth Rate	%	%	%
Discount Rate	%	%	%
	Bear Case $55.57 Implied EV: $16.50B	Base Case $78.85 Implied EV: $21.10B	Bull Case $99.20 Implied EV: $25.12B

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $42?

+1.8%

Market-Implied FCF Growth Rate

Market below historical growth — potential opportunity.

TAP Economic Moat Score

50/100

Narrow Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with reinvestment efficiency as the key competitive advantage. Improving roic consistency would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

TAP Forensic Accounting

-3.34

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

TAP Management & Board

Ms. Tracey I. Joubert

Chief Financial Officer · Age 58

$1.94M

total pay

Ms. Natalie Maciolek

Chief Legal & Government Affairs Officer and Secretary · Age 46

$1.18M

total pay

Mr. Rahul Goyal

President, CEO and Director · Age 48

Ms. Roxanne M. Stelter

VP, Controller, Chief Accounting Officer & Principal Accounting Officer · Age 48

Mr. Darrin Vohs

Chief Information Officer

Ms. Traci Mangini

Vice President of Investor Relations · Age 55

Ms. Sofia Colucci

Chief Marketing Officer

Mr. Dave Osswald

Chief People & Culture Officer

Mr. Kevin Doyle

President of U.S. Sales & Distributor Operations

Mr. Brian Erhardt

Chief Supply Chain Officer of Molson Coors North America

TAP Ownership

Insiders 13.2%Institutions 98.1%

No. of Institutional Holders924

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

TAP Insider Buying Activity

2

Buys (3M)

6

Buys (12M)

Total value (12M): $561,910

MOLSON ANDREW THOMAS

Director

$93,338

@ $46.67 · 2026-03-09

WINNEFELD JAMES A. JR.

Director

$4,901

@ $49.01 · 2026-02-20

COCKS CHRISTIAN P

Director

$2,123

@ $47.18 · 2025-11-26

MOLSON ANDREW THOMAS

Director

$350,924

@ $46.79 · 2025-11-10

COORS DAVID S

Director

$99,824

@ $44.47 · 2025-11-05

WINNEFELD JAMES A. JR.

Director

$10,800

@ $54.00 · 2025-05-09

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

TAP Insider Selling Activity

0

Sells (3M)

1

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $75,036

MOLSON GEOFFREY E

Director

$75,036

@ $56.29 · 2025-05-21

WHITEHEAD PHILIP MARK

Chief Executive Officer

$208,099

@ $59.61 · 2025-03-13

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

TAP 🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

🥶Extreme Fear(20/100)

"Mr. Market is panicking — potential buying opportunity if fundamentals are strong"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

TAP ⚖️ Buffett Signal

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Extreme Fear (20)

TAP Investment Checklist & Notes

Do I understand this business?

Does it have a durable competitive advantage (moat)?

Is management honest and competent?

Is management allocating capital rationally?

Is the price reasonable (margin of safety)?

Is this within my circle of competence?

Auto-saved • Last updated: 3/20/2026, 4:30:09 AM

TAP Insider Buying Activity

2

Buys (3M)

6

Buys (12M)

Total value (12M): $561,910

MOLSON ANDREW THOMAS

Director

$93,338

@ $46.67 · 2026-03-09

WINNEFELD JAMES A. JR.

Director

$4,901

@ $49.01 · 2026-02-20

COCKS CHRISTIAN P

Director

$2,123

@ $47.18 · 2025-11-26

MOLSON ANDREW THOMAS

Director

$350,924

@ $46.79 · 2025-11-10

COORS DAVID S

Director

$99,824

@ $44.47 · 2025-11-05

WINNEFELD JAMES A. JR.

Director

$10,800

@ $54.00 · 2025-05-09

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

TAP Insider Selling Activity

0

Sells (3M)

1

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $75,036

MOLSON GEOFFREY E

Director

$75,036

@ $56.29 · 2025-05-21

WHITEHEAD PHILIP MARK

Chief Executive Officer

$208,099

@ $59.61 · 2025-03-13

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

TAP Investment Checklist & Notes

Do I understand this business?

Does it have a durable competitive advantage (moat)?

Is management honest and competent?

Is management allocating capital rationally?

Is the price reasonable (margin of safety)?

Is this within my circle of competence?

Auto-saved • Last updated: 3/20/2026, 4:30:09 AM