SafetyMargin.io

Blog Watchlist Compare

SafetyMargin.io

Blog Watchlist Compare

Basic Materials › Building Materials

Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM) Stock Overview

Market Cap: $37.06B

Martin Marietta Materials, Inc., a natural resource-based building materials company, supplies aggregates and heavy-side building materials to the construction industry in the United States and internationally. It operates through East Group and West Group segments.

May 1, 2026$614.49

1Y +17.5%

Rewards

★Free cash flow has grown at a 24.3% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
★PEG ratio of 0.03 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate — paying less than 1x for each unit of earnings growth.
★Altman Z-Score of 3.81 indicates very low bankruptcy risk — the company is firmly in the safe zone.

Risks

⚠Each dollar of retained earnings has produced only $0.33 of earning power — shareholders may have been better served by dividends.
⚠FCF yield of 2.3% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
⚠Trailing P/E of 38.5x is 54% above the historical average of 24.9x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.

MLM Key Valuation Metrics

Free Cash Flow

$841.75M

FCF Yield

2.27%

Trailing P/E

38.45

Forward P/E

26.49

ROIC

3.75%

ROE

10.06%

Gross Margin

29.75%

PEG Ratio

0.03

Debt / Equity

0.50

Interest Coverage

N/A

Net Debt / EBITDA

2.57

Dividend Yield

0.54%

MLM Historical Fundamentals

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

MLM $1 Retained Earnings Test

Market Value

$4.43

created per $1 retained

Exceptional Value Creator

Earning Power

$3.37

created per $1 retained

Exceptional Value Creator

Σ Retained

$3.74B

Δ Market Cap

+$16.56B

Δ Earning Power

+$3.36B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 retained, how much value did management create?
Market Value = market's verdict (mood-sensitive) · Earning Power = owner earnings / discount rate (mood-independent)

MLM Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

29.0% Overvalued

Price is 29.0% above estimated fair value

Current Price: $614.49

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $476.27

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Parameter	Min (Bear)Value	BaseValue	Max (Bull)Value
Initial Cash Flow
Growth Rate (Yr 1-5)	%	%	%
Growth Rate (Yr 6-10)	%	%	%
Terminal Growth Rate	%	%	%
Discount Rate	%	%	%
	Bear Case $241.32 Implied EV: $19.97B	Base Case $476.27 Implied EV: $34.14B	Bull Case $743.98 Implied EV: $50.29B

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $614?

+20.3%

Market-Implied FCF Growth Rate

Market above historical growth — verify catalysts.

MLM Economic Moat Score

43/100

Narrow Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with margin stability as the key competitive advantage. Improving roic consistency would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.

MLM Forensic Accounting

-2.67

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

MLM Management & Board

Mr. C. Howard Nye J.D.

Chairman, CEO, President, President of Aggregates Business & Chair of Magnesia Specialties Business · Age 62

$4.25M

total pay

Mr. Michael J. Petro

Senior VP & CFO · Age 40

$1.39M

total pay

Mr. Robert J. Cardin

Senior VP, Controller & Chief Accounting Officer · Age 62

$1.78M

total pay

Mr. Jason P. Flynn

Senior VP & Chief Information Officer · Age 44

$749,802

total pay

Mr. Donald A. McCunniff

Executive VP & Chief Human Resources Officer · Age 68

$2.03M

total pay

MLM Ownership

Insiders 0.8%Institutions 101.3%

No. of Institutional Holders1,461

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

MLM Insider Buying Activity

0

Buys (3M)

0

Buys (12M)

PETRO MICHAEL J

Officer

$249,904

@ $454.37 · 2025-03-04

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

MLM Insider Selling Activity

0

Sells (3M)

1

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $636,626

PEREZ LAREE E

Director

$636,626

@ $613.32 · 2025-08-08

MCCUNNIFF DONALD A

Officer

$632,700

@ $475.00 · 2025-03-05

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

MLM 🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

😐Neutral(49/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

MLM ⚖️ Buffett Signal

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (49)

MLM Investment Checklist & Notes

Do I understand this business?

Does it have a durable competitive advantage (moat)?

Is management honest and competent?

Is management allocating capital rationally?

Is the price reasonable (margin of safety)?

Is this within my circle of competence?

Auto-saved • Last updated: 5/4/2026, 7:44:09 AM

MLM Insider Buying Activity

0

Buys (3M)

0

Buys (12M)

PETRO MICHAEL J

Officer

$249,904

@ $454.37 · 2025-03-04

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

MLM Insider Selling Activity

0

Sells (3M)

1

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $636,626

PEREZ LAREE E

Director

$636,626

@ $613.32 · 2025-08-08

MCCUNNIFF DONALD A

Officer

$632,700

@ $475.00 · 2025-03-05

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

MLM Investment Checklist & Notes

Do I understand this business?

Does it have a durable competitive advantage (moat)?

Is management honest and competent?

Is management allocating capital rationally?

Is the price reasonable (margin of safety)?

Is this within my circle of competence?

Auto-saved • Last updated: 5/4/2026, 7:44:09 AM

Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM) Intrinsic Value & Margin of Safety | SafetyMargin.io