UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) vs Vistra Corp. (VST): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-08-03, UNH is overvalued at $414, with a DCF intrinsic value of $371 and a margin of safety of -12%. VST is overvalued at $148, with an intrinsic value of $118 and a margin of safety of -26%. Of the two, UNH has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★UnitedHealth Group Incorporated scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★Share count has been reduced by 13% over the past 4 years through buybacks, increasing each share's claim on earnings.
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $4.93 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
- ★Trailing P/E of 24.7x is 27% below the historical average of 33.9x — potentially undervalued relative to its own history.
Risks
- ⚠ROIC has declined by 6.9 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
- ⚠Gross margin of 19.5% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
- ⚠FCF yield of 6.0% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.
- ⚠High leverage (3.55x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
- ⚠Altman Z-Score of 1.42 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
- ⚠6 insider sales totaling $9.3M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $414?
The market implies +14.4% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +6.6%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.
Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: UNH vs VST
Is UnitedHealth Group Incorporated or Vistra Corp. more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, UNH trades at a -11.7% margin of safety (intrinsic value $371 vs. price $414), compared to VST's -25.8% margin of safety (intrinsic $118 vs. $148).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, UnitedHealth Group Incorporated or Vistra Corp.?▼
UNH scores 73/100 (Wide moat), while VST scores 44/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Is Vistra Corp. in financial distress?▼
VST's Altman Z-Score of 1.4 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. UNH scores 2.9 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.
Which company has better free cash flow, UnitedHealth Group Incorporated or Vistra Corp.?▼
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) generates a 6.0% free cash flow yield, compared to Vistra Corp.'s -0.3%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, UnitedHealth Group Incorporated or Vistra Corp.?▼
VST earns 15.6% ROIC versus UNH's 14.1%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's or Vistra Corp.'s?▼
VST's dividend earns a safety score of 84/100 (Very Safe), compared to UNH's 84/100 (Very Safe). VST has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.