Chevron Corporation (CVX) vs UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-08-03, CVX is overvalued at $197, with a DCF intrinsic value of $139 and a margin of safety of -42%. UNH is overvalued at $414, with an intrinsic value of $371 and a margin of safety of -12%. Of the two, UNH has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★PEG ratio of 0.80 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate — paying less than 1x for each unit of earnings growth.
- ★UnitedHealth Group Incorporated scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
Risks
- ⚠ROIC has declined by 11.0 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
- ⚠Buybacks have been poorly timed — 3 out of 4 years involved repurchases at relatively expensive valuations.
- ⚠Trailing P/E of 18.9x is 25% above the historical average of 15.2x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
- ⚠ROIC has declined by 6.9 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
- ⚠Gross margin of 19.5% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
- ⚠FCF yield of 6.0% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $414?
The market implies +14.4% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +6.6%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving roic consistency would strengthen the moat.
Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: CVX vs UNH
Is Chevron Corporation or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, UNH trades at a -11.7% margin of safety (intrinsic value $371 vs. price $414), compared to CVX's -41.8% margin of safety (intrinsic $139 vs. $197).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Chevron Corporation or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated?▼
UNH scores 73/100 (Wide moat), while CVX scores 43/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Is UnitedHealth Group Incorporated in financial distress?▼
UNH's Altman Z-Score of 2.9 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. CVX scores 3.0 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Chevron Corporation or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated?▼
CVX earns 15.5% ROIC versus UNH's 14.1%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, Chevron Corporation's or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's?▼
UNH's dividend earns a safety score of 84/100 (Very Safe), compared to CVX's 30/100 (Unsafe). UNH has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.