Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) vs Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-06-19, TSLA is overvalued at $400, with a DCF intrinsic value of $131 and a margin of safety of -206%. ULTA is undervalued at $456, with an intrinsic value of $636 and a margin of safety of 28%. Of the two, ULTA has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Altman Z-Score of 19.94 indicates very low bankruptcy risk — the company is firmly in the safe zone.
- ★Net debt/EBITDA of -2.6x means the company holds more cash than debt — a net cash position.
- ★Ulta Beauty, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★Ulta Beauty, Inc. scores 77/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with reinvestment efficiency as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
Risks
- ⚠ROIC has declined by 21.5 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
- ⚠Gross margin of 19.1% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
- ⚠Share count has increased by 19% over the past 4 years, diluting existing shareholders.
- ⚠Beneish M-Score of -1.33 flags financial patterns consistent with potential earnings manipulation — warrants further investigation.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $400?
The market implies +50.2% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +45.1%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $456?
The market implies +6.9% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +9.2%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →No durable moat detected, though revenue predictability shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.
Wide moat driven primarily by reinvestment efficiency. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: TSLA vs ULTA
Is Tesla, Inc. or Ulta Beauty, Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, ULTA trades at a 28.3% margin of safety (intrinsic value $636 vs. price $456), compared to TSLA's -206.1% margin of safety (intrinsic $131 vs. $400).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Tesla, Inc. or Ulta Beauty, Inc.?▼
ULTA scores 77/100 (Wide moat), while TSLA scores 31/100 (None moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Which company has better free cash flow, Tesla, Inc. or Ulta Beauty, Inc.?▼
Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) generates a 5.0% free cash flow yield, compared to Tesla, Inc.'s 0.3%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Tesla, Inc. or Ulta Beauty, Inc.?▼
ULTA earns 29.1% ROIC versus TSLA's 3.2%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Does Ulta Beauty, Inc. have accounting red flags?▼
ULTA's Beneish M-Score of -1.3 flags it as a likely earnings manipulator (above the -1.78 threshold). By contrast, TSLA scores -2.9, within the normal range. The Beneish model detects aggressive accounting through eight financial ratios.