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AT&T Inc. (T) vs Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)

T
AT&T Inc.
$27.74
VS
UNP
Union Pacific Corporation
$234.18

Rewards

T
  • ★Free cash flow has grown at a 16.2% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
  • ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $1.91 of market value — management is creating shareholder value.
  • ★FCF yield of 9.9% is historically attractive — the business generates significant cash relative to its price.
UNP
  • ★Union Pacific Corporation has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
  • ★Union Pacific Corporation scores 80/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with margin stability as the strongest competitive dimension.
  • ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.

Risks

T
  • ⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.89 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
UNP
  • ⚠PEG ratio of 2.87 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.

Key Valuation Metrics

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T
UNP
Valuation
$19.44B
Free Cash Flow
$5.50B
9.89%
FCF Yield
3.96%
9.13
Trailing P/E
19.53
10.89
Forward P/E
17.34
Quality & Moat
6.35%
ROIC
15.44%
17.04%
ROE
38.65%
59.55%
Gross Margin
56.35%
N/A
PEG Ratio
2.87
Balance Sheet Safety
1.24
Debt / Equity
1.78
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
3.19
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.52
4.00%
Dividend Yield
2.36%
T: 7Ties: 1UNP: 3
TUNP

Historical Fundamentals

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T

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

UNP

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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T
$1.91
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Value Creator
Σ Retained
$22.78B
Δ Market Cap
+$43.59B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
UNP
$0.98
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Mediocre Allocator
Σ Retained
$10.64B
Δ Market Cap
+$10.42B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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T
53.1% Margin of Safety
Price is 53.1% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $27.74
Fair Value: $59.14
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
UNP
6.5% Overvalued
Price is 6.5% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $234.18
Fair Value: $219.93
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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T

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $28?

+4.2%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +5.8%

The market implies +4.2% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding +5.8%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

UNP

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $234?

+10.1%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +13.7%

The market implies +10.1% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +13.7%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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T
57/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with margin stability as the key competitive advantage. Improving roic consistency would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
UNP
80/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by margin stability. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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T
-2.78
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
UNP
-2.62
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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T
Insiders 0.1%Institutions 67.8%Retail & Other 32.1%
No. of Institutional Holders3,554
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
UNP
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 89.0%Retail & Other 10.8%
No. of Institutional Holders3,432
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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T
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
UNP
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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T
0
Sells (3M)
1
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $41,348
SABRINA SANDERS S
Officer
$41,348
@ $27.57 · 2025-05-28
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
UNP
0
Sells (3M)
0
Sells (12M)
RICHARDSON CRAIG V
Officer
$1.64M
@ $252.00 · 2025-01-27
WHITED ELIZABETH F.
President
$1.88M
@ $250.00 · 2025-01-24
WHITED ELIZABETH F.
President
$875,905
@ $246.59 · 2024-07-30
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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T
FearGreed
😐Neutral(59/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
UNP
FearGreed
😐Neutral(44/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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T
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (59)
UNP
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (44)
View T Full AnalysisView UNP Full Analysis
AT&T Inc. (T) vs Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) Stock Comparison | SafetyMargin.io