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Compare Stocks › SYF vs UNH

Synchrony Financial (SYF) vs UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-11-01, SYF is undervalued at $75, with a DCF intrinsic value of $264 and a margin of safety of 71%. UNH is overvalued at $407, with an intrinsic value of $367 and a margin of safety of -11%. Of the two, SYF has the wider margin of safety.

SYF
Synchrony Financial
$75.35
VS
UNH
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
$406.97

Rewards

SYF
  • ★Free cash flow has grown at a 13.7% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
  • ★Share count has been reduced by 21% over the past 4 years through buybacks, increasing each share's claim on earnings.
  • ★PEG ratio of 0.93 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate — paying less than 1x for each unit of earnings growth.
UNH
  • ★UnitedHealth Group Incorporated scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.

Risks

SYF
  • ⚠Gross margin of 0.0% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
  • ⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.58 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
UNH
  • ⚠ROIC has declined by 6.9 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
  • ⚠Gross margin of 20.0% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
  • ⚠FCF yield of 7.3% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.

Key Valuation Metrics

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SYF
UNH
Valuation
N/A
Free Cash Flow
$26.50B
N/A
FCF Yield
7.25%
7.87
Trailing P/E
23.23
7.18
Forward P/E
17.48
Quality & Moat
22.63%
ROIC
11.51%
19.83%
ROE
15.77%
0.00%
Gross Margin
20.05%
0.93
PEG Ratio
1.03
Balance Sheet Safety
N/A
Net Debt / Equity
0.43
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
N/A
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.58
1.80%
Dividend Yield
2.28%
SYF: 5Ties: 1UNH: 2
SYFUNH

Historical Fundamentals

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SYF

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

UNH

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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SYF
$1.86
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Value Creator
Σ Retained
$7.86B
Δ Market Cap
+$14.58B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
UNH
$-7.37
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Market Cap Declined
Σ Retained
$26.63B
Δ Market Cap
$-196.16B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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SYF
71.4% Margin of Safety
Price is 71.4% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $75.35
Fair Value: $263.56
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
UNH
10.8% Overvalued
Price is 10.8% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $406.97
Fair Value: $367.30
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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SYF

Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

UNH

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $407?

+14.2%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +4.2%

The market implies +14.2% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +4.2%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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SYF
65/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving reinvestment efficiency would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
UNH
73/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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SYF
-2.74
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
UNH
-2.45
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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SYF
Insiders 0.4%Institutions 113.8%
No. of Institutional Holders1,434
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
UNH
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 89.6%Retail & Other 10.1%
No. of Institutional Holders4,333
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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SYF
1
Buys (3M)
1
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $887.00
COVIELLO ARTHUR W JR
Director
$887.00
@ $80.64 · 2026-08-17
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
UNH
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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SYF
1
Sells (3M)
27
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $47.67M
CASELLAS ALBERTO B
Officer
$436,480
@ $80.00 · 2026-08-13
GENTLEMAN COURTNEY
Officer
$55,322
@ $76.73 · 2026-08-03
OWENS DARRELL
Officer
$46,805
@ $76.73 · 2026-08-03
COVIELLO ARTHUR W JR
Director
$308,680
@ $77.17 · 2026-08-03
MOTHNER JONATHAN S
Officer
$3.65M
@ $71.23 · 2026-05-15
CASELLAS ALBERTO B
Officer
$443,531
@ $76.55 · 2026-05-01
HOWSE CURTIS
Officer
$645,776
@ $76.55 · 2026-05-01
COVIELLO ARTHUR W JR
Director
$306,200
@ $76.55 · 2026-05-01
WENZEL BRIAN J SR.
Chief Financial Officer
$4.49M
@ $67.32 · 2026-03-03
CASELLAS ALBERTO B
Officer
$974,956
@ $67.71 · 2026-03-02
HOWSE CURTIS
Officer
$533,690
@ $67.71 · 2026-03-02
GENTLEMAN COURTNEY
Officer
$293,726
@ $67.71 · 2026-03-02
JUEL CAROL D
Chief Technology Officer
$1.14M
@ $67.71 · 2026-03-02
SCHALLER BARTON W
Officer
$878,876
@ $67.71 · 2026-03-02
OWENS DARRELL
Officer
$261,699
@ $67.71 · 2026-03-02
DOUBLES BRIAN D
Chief Executive Officer
$14.94M
@ $68.68 · 2026-03-02
CASELLAS ALBERTO B
Officer
$2.93M
@ $70.60 · 2026-02-17
GENTLEMAN COURTNEY
Officer
$850,377
@ $70.60 · 2026-02-17
JUEL CAROL D
Chief Operating Officer
$3.14M
@ $70.60 · 2026-02-17
SCHALLER BARTON W
Officer
$2.49M
@ $70.60 · 2026-02-17
OWENS DARRELL
Officer
$727,462
@ $70.60 · 2026-02-17
HOWSE CURTIS
Officer
$3.80M
@ $72.32 · 2026-02-02
COVIELLO ARTHUR W JR
Director
$289,280
@ $72.32 · 2026-02-02
MOTHNER JONATHAN S
Officer
$2.33M
@ $72.80 · 2025-11-17
HOWSE CURTIS
Officer
$894,606
@ $74.02 · 2025-11-03
OWENS DARRELL
Officer
$221,246
@ $74.02 · 2025-11-03
COVIELLO ARTHUR W JR
Director
$591,440
@ $73.93 · 2025-11-03
WENZEL BRIAN J SR.
Chief Financial Officer
$595,980
@ $70.00 · 2025-08-05
NAYLOR JEFFREY G
Director
$1.38M
@ $68.75 · 2025-08-05
OWENS DARRELL
Officer
$40,770
@ $67.95 · 2025-08-04
GENTLEMAN COURTNEY
Officer
$48,177
@ $67.95 · 2025-08-04
HOWSE CURTIS
Officer
$739,700
@ $65.00 · 2025-06-24
NAYLOR JEFFREY G
Director
$650,000
@ $65.00 · 2025-06-24
MOTHNER JONATHAN S
Officer
$2.44M
@ $60.07 · 2025-05-19
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
UNH
2
Sells (3M)
3
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $944,910
CONWAY PATRICK HUGH
Officer
$455,910
@ $390.00 · 2026-08-21
CONWAY PATRICK HUGH
Officer
$205,000
@ $410.00 · 2026-08-05
CONWAY PATRICK HUGH
Officer
$284,000
@ $355.00 · 2026-04-23
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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SYF
FearGreed
😐Neutral(51/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
UNH
FearGreed
😏Greed(62/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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SYF
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (51)
UNH
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (62)
View SYF Full AnalysisView UNH Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: SYF vs UNH

Is Synchrony Financial or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, SYF trades at a 71.4% margin of safety (intrinsic value $264 vs. price $75), compared to UNH's -10.8% margin of safety (intrinsic $367 vs. $407).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Synchrony Financial or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated?▼

UNH scores 73/100 (Wide moat), while SYF scores 65/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is Synchrony Financial in financial distress?▼

SYF's Altman Z-Score of 0.6 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. UNH scores 2.9 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Synchrony Financial or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated?▼

SYF earns 22.6% ROIC versus UNH's 11.5%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Synchrony Financial's or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's?▼

SYF's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to UNH's 84/100 (Very Safe). SYF has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.