Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) vs Visa Inc. (V): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-09-17, SMCI is undervalued at $40, with a DCF intrinsic value of $170 and a margin of safety of 76%. V is overvalued at $370, with an intrinsic value of $316 and a margin of safety of -17%. Of the two, SMCI has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $3.99 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
- ★Trailing P/E of 12.3x is 24% below the historical average of 16.3x — potentially undervalued relative to its own history.
- ★PEG ratio of 0.91 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate — paying less than 1x for each unit of earnings growth.
- ★Visa Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★Gross margin of 97.7% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Visa Inc. scores 99/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
Risks
- ⚠ROIC has declined by 19.2 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
- ⚠Gross margin of 10.8% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
- ⚠Share count has increased by 24% over the past 4 years, diluting existing shareholders.
- ⚠FCF yield of 3.0% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
- ⚠9 insider sales totaling $44.9M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $370?
The market implies +15.3% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +15.0%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Narrow moat with reinvestment efficiency as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.
Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. ROIC Consistency is the standout factor.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"
"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: SMCI vs V
Is Super Micro Computer, Inc. or Visa Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, SMCI trades at a 76.5% margin of safety (intrinsic value $170 vs. price $40), compared to V's -16.9% margin of safety (intrinsic $316 vs. $370).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Super Micro Computer, Inc. or Visa Inc.?▼
V scores 99/100 (Wide moat), while SMCI scores 52/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Which company has better free cash flow, Super Micro Computer, Inc. or Visa Inc.?▼
Visa Inc. (V) generates a 3.0% free cash flow yield, compared to Super Micro Computer, Inc.'s -31.3%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Super Micro Computer, Inc. or Visa Inc.?▼
V earns 39.4% ROIC versus SMCI's 17.4%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Does Super Micro Computer, Inc. have accounting red flags?▼
SMCI's Beneish M-Score of 0.1 flags it as a likely earnings manipulator (above the -1.78 threshold). By contrast, V scores -2.5, within the normal range. The Beneish model detects aggressive accounting through eight financial ratios.