Compare Stocks › PG vs UNP

Procter & Gamble Company (The) (PG) vs Union Pacific Corporation (UNP): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-08-03, PG is undervalued at $144, with a DCF intrinsic value of $220753045647 and a margin of safety of 100%. UNP is overvalued at $292, with an intrinsic value of $215 and a margin of safety of -36%. Of the two, PG has the wider margin of safety.

Procter & Gamble Company (The)

$144.49

UNP

Union Pacific Corporation

$292.13

Rewards

★Procter & Gamble Company (The) has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
★Procter & Gamble Company (The) scores 94/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.

UNP

★Union Pacific Corporation has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
★Union Pacific Corporation scores 80/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with margin stability as the strongest competitive dimension.
★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.

Risks

⚠PEG ratio of 5.57 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
⚠28 insider sales with no purchases over the past 12 months — a persistent pattern of insider selling.

UNP

⚠Each dollar of retained earnings has produced only $0.15 of earning power — shareholders may have been better served by dividends.
⚠FCF yield of 2.7% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
⚠PEG ratio of 3.23 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.

Key Valuation Metrics

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UNP

Valuation

$12.84B

Free Cash Flow

$4.72B

N/A

FCF Yield

2.72%

21.83

Trailing P/E

23.64

19.50

Forward P/E

20.69

Quality & Moat

15.19%

ROIC

15.87%

30.29%

ROE

39.70%

50.68%

Gross Margin

56.28%

5.57

PEG Ratio

3.23

Balance Sheet Safety

0.45

Net Debt / Equity

1.41

N/A

Interest Coverage

N/A

1.02

Net Debt / EBITDA

2.26

3.01%

Dividend Yield

1.94%

PG: 6Ties: 2UNP: 3

PGUNP

Historical Fundamentals

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Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

UNP

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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$-0.00

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Market Cap Declined

Σ Retained

$17.32B

Δ Market Cap

$-8.25

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

UNP

$0.98

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Mediocre Allocator

Σ Retained

$10.64B

Δ Market Cap

+$10.42B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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100.0% Margin of Safety

Price is 100.0% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $144.49

Strongly undervalued

Fairly valued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $220753045647.21

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

UNP

35.6% Overvalued

Price is 35.6% above estimated fair value

Current Price: $292.13

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $215.49

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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What growth rate is the market pricing in at $144?

-29.9%

Market-Implied FCF Growth Rate

Market below historical growth — potential opportunity.

UNP

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $292?

+12.5%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +18.1%

The market implies +12.5% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +18.1%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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94/100

Wide Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. Revenue Predictability is the standout factor.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.

UNP

80/100

Wide Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by margin stability. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Forensic Accounting

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-2.54

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

UNP

-2.61

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Ownership Breakdown

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Insiders 0.1%Institutions 71.8%Retail & Other 28.2%

No. of Institutional Holders4,993

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

UNP

Insiders 0.1%Institutions 90.8%Retail & Other 9.2%

No. of Institutional Holders3,523

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

No open market insider purchases found.

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

UNP

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

No open market insider purchases found.

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $78.99M

FRANCISCO MA. FATIMA

Officer

$917,199

@ $165.29 · 2026-02-27

WHALEY SUSAN STREET

Officer

$288,454

@ $159.45 · 2026-02-19

AGUILAR MOSES VICTOR JAVIER

Officer

$2.46M

@ $162.28 · 2026-02-13

COOMBE GARY A

Officer

$5.86M

@ $162.33 · 2026-02-12

MOELLER JON R

Officer and Director

$28.12M

@ $162.29 · 2026-02-12

PURUSHOTHAMAN BALAJI

Officer

$2.06M

@ $160.31 · 2026-02-11

FRANCISCO MA. FATIMA

Officer

$1.26M

@ $158.00 · 2026-02-04

PRITCHARD MARC S

Officer

$14.50M

@ $151.15 · 2026-01-23

JANZARUK MATTHEW W.

Officer

$108,438

@ $149.57 · 2025-10-30

COOMBE GARY A

Officer

$538,139

@ $152.23 · 2025-10-02

MOELLER JON R

Chief Executive Officer

$1.78M

@ $152.23 · 2025-10-02

DAVIS JENNIFER L

Officer

$491,252

@ $152.23 · 2025-10-02

PURUSHOTHAMAN BALAJI

Officer

$74,594

@ $152.23 · 2025-10-02

WHALEY SUSAN STREET

Officer

$366,574

@ $152.23 · 2025-10-02

JEJURIKAR SHAILESH

Chief Operating Officer

$606,796

@ $152.23 · 2025-10-02

SCHULTEN ANDRE

Chief Financial Officer

$647,289

@ $152.23 · 2025-10-02

WHALEY SUSAN STREET

Officer

$156,835

@ $156.84 · 2025-08-29

COOMBE GARY A

Officer

$1.61M

@ $158.16 · 2025-08-21

RAMAN SUNDAR G.

Officer

$1.51M

@ $158.16 · 2025-08-21

MOELLER JON R

Chief Executive Officer

$6.31M

@ $157.27 · 2025-08-19

PRITCHARD MARC S

Officer

$1.55M

@ $157.27 · 2025-08-19

JANZARUK MATTHEW W.

Officer

$50,170

@ $157.27 · 2025-08-19

DAVIS JENNIFER L

Officer

$1.35M

@ $157.27 · 2025-08-19

PURUSHOTHAMAN BALAJI

Officer

$95,308

@ $157.27 · 2025-08-19

WHALEY SUSAN STREET

Officer

$969,908

@ $157.27 · 2025-08-19

JEJURIKAR SHAILESH

Chief Operating Officer

$2.05M

@ $157.27 · 2025-08-19

FRANCISCO MA. FATIMA

Officer

$1.43M

@ $157.27 · 2025-08-19

SCHULTEN ANDRE

Chief Financial Officer

$1.83M

@ $157.27 · 2025-08-19

AGUILAR MOSES VICTOR JAVIER

Officer

$1.67M

@ $158.67 · 2025-05-05

DAVIS JENNIFER L

Officer

$161,384

@ $161.38 · 2025-04-29

COOMBE GARY A

Officer

$6.08M

@ $173.68 · 2025-02-28

COOMBE GARY A

Officer

$3.09M

@ $171.66 · 2025-02-25

PRITCHARD MARC S

Officer

$14.82M

@ $163.84 · 2025-01-23

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

UNP

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $9.25M

GEHRINGER ERIC J.

Officer

$789,504

@ $263.96 · 2026-06-03

ROCKER KENYATTA G.

Officer

$7.44M

@ $271.76 · 2026-04-24

HAMANN JENNIFER L

Chief Financial Officer

$549,400

@ $274.70 · 2026-04-24

GEHRINGER ERIC J.

Officer

$469,625

@ $234.93 · 2026-03-20

RICHARDSON CRAIG V

Officer

$1.64M

@ $252.00 · 2025-01-27

WHITED ELIZABETH F.

President

$1.88M

@ $250.00 · 2025-01-24

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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😐Neutral(48/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

UNP

😐Neutral(59/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (48)

UNP

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (59)

View PG Full Analysis View UNP Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: PG vs UNP

Is Procter & Gamble Company (The) or Union Pacific Corporation more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, PG trades at a 100.0% margin of safety (intrinsic value $220753045647 vs. price $144), compared to UNP's -35.6% margin of safety (intrinsic $215 vs. $292).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Procter & Gamble Company (The) or Union Pacific Corporation?▼

PG scores 94/100 (Wide moat), while UNP scores 80/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is Procter & Gamble Company (The) in financial distress?▼

PG's Altman Z-Score of 2.6 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. UNP scores 3.8 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Procter & Gamble Company (The) or Union Pacific Corporation?▼

UNP earns 15.9% ROIC versus PG's 15.2%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.