Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) vs UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-11-01, PAYX is fairly valued at $112, with a DCF intrinsic value of $105 and a margin of safety of -7%. UNH is overvalued at $407, with an intrinsic value of $367 and a margin of safety of -11%. Of the two, PAYX has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Paychex, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★Gross margin of 74.4% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Paychex, Inc. scores 92/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with margin stability as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★UnitedHealth Group Incorporated scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
Risks
- ⚠PEG ratio of 2.09 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
- ⚠ROIC has declined by 6.9 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
- ⚠Gross margin of 20.0% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
- ⚠FCF yield of 7.3% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $112?
The market implies +9.1% Owner Earnings growth, roughly in line with history — reasonably priced.
Standard FCF implies +9.7%, reflecting ongoing growth investment.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $407?
The market implies +14.2% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +4.2%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. Margin Stability is the standout factor.
Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: PAYX vs UNH
Is Paychex, Inc. or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, PAYX trades at a -7.3% margin of safety (intrinsic value $105 vs. price $112), compared to UNH's -10.8% margin of safety (intrinsic $367 vs. $407).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Paychex, Inc. or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated?▼
PAYX scores 92/100 (Wide moat), while UNH scores 73/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Is UnitedHealth Group Incorporated in financial distress?▼
UNH's Altman Z-Score of 2.9 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. PAYX scores 3.1 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.
Which company has better free cash flow, Paychex, Inc. or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated?▼
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) generates a 7.3% free cash flow yield, compared to Paychex, Inc.'s 4.7%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Paychex, Inc. or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated?▼
PAYX earns 24.1% ROIC versus UNH's 11.5%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, Paychex, Inc.'s or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's?▼
UNH's dividend earns a safety score of 84/100 (Very Safe), compared to PAYX's 49/100 (Borderline). UNH has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.