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Compare Stocks › ORCL vs TKO

Oracle Corporation (ORCL) vs TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-08-03, ORCL is undervalued at $136, with a DCF intrinsic value of $404 and a margin of safety of 66%. TKO is overvalued at $188, with an intrinsic value of $110 and a margin of safety of -71%. Of the two, ORCL has the wider margin of safety.

ORCL
Oracle Corporation
$136.37
VS
TKO
TKO Group Holdings, Inc.
$188.18

Rewards

ORCL
  • ★Gross margin of 65.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
  • ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $3.80 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
TKO
  • ★Free cash flow has grown at a 33.3% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
  • ★Insiders have bought $5.5M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant skin in the game.

Risks

ORCL
  • ⚠Despite buyback spending, shares outstanding increased in 3 out of 4 years — stock-based compensation is offsetting repurchases.
  • ⚠High leverage (3.15x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
  • ⚠Net debt/EBITDA of 4.4x indicates heavy leverage — it would take over 4 years of EBITDA to pay off net debt.
TKO
  • ⚠ROIC has declined by 6.3 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.

Key Valuation Metrics

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ORCL
TKO
Valuation
$-24.54B
Free Cash Flow
$1.16B
-6.25%
FCF Yield
3.22%
23.39
Trailing P/E
69.95
12.52
Forward P/E
49.16
Quality & Moat
9.15%
ROIC
6.29%
53.38%
ROE
6.74%
65.82%
Gross Margin
59.12%
0.73
PEG Ratio
1.28
Balance Sheet Safety
3.15
Net Debt / Equity
0.49
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
4.44
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.90
1.54%
Dividend Yield
1.71%
ORCL: 6Ties: 1TKO: 5
ORCLTKO

Historical Fundamentals

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ORCL

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

TKO

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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ORCL
$4.26
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$25.08B
Δ Market Cap
+$106.71B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
TKO
N/A
Net losses over 3 years — test not applicable
Company had negative cumulative retained earnings
Σ Retained
$-212.4M
Δ Market Cap
+$10.56B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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ORCL
66.2% Margin of Safety
Price is 66.2% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $136.37
Fair Value: $403.51
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
TKO
70.6% Overvalued
Price is 70.6% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $188.18
Fair Value: $110.33
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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ORCL

Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

TKO

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $188?

+24.7%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +15.2%

The market implies +24.7% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +15.2%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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ORCL
67/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving reinvestment efficiency would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
TKO
30/100
No Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

No durable moat detected, though reinvestment efficiency shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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ORCL
-2.58
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
TKO
-2.72
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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ORCL
Insiders 40.5%Institutions 43.9%Retail & Other 15.6%
No. of Institutional Holders4,502
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
TKO
Insiders 17.6%Institutions 103.2%
No. of Institutional Holders860
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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ORCL
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
FAIRHEAD RONA ALISON
Director
$112,258
@ $233.87 · 2025-07-07
MOORMAN CHARLES W IV
Director
$947,913
@ $172.35 · 2025-02-12
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
TKO
4
Buys (3M)
5
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $5.64M
KRAFT JONATHAN
Director
$987,797
@ $189.96 · 2026-05-14
EMANUEL ARIEL Z
Chief Executive Officer
$2.00M
@ $185.09 · 2026-05-13
SHAPIRO MARK S
President
$2.00M
@ $185.05 · 2026-05-13
SCHLEIMER ANDREW M
Chief Financial Officer
$499,953
@ $185.44 · 2026-05-13
BYNOE PETER C B
Director
$150,220
@ $203.00 · 2025-09-16
BYNOE PETER C B
Director
$166,198
@ $169.59 · 2025-06-05
SILVER LAKE WEST VOTECO, L.L.C.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$250.00M
@ $158.32 · 2025-06-03
ENDEAVOR GROUP HOLDINGS, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$250.00M
@ $158.32 · 2025-06-03
MEDINA SONYA E.
Director
$33,303
@ $142.93 · 2025-03-17
KRAFT JONATHAN
Director
$3.53M
@ $150.13 · 2025-03-07
EMANUEL ARIEL Z
Chief Executive Officer
$68.13M
@ $174.48 · 2025-02-12
WHITESELL PATRICK
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$68.13M
@ $174.48 · 2025-02-12
SILVER LAKE WEST HOLDCO, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$68.13M
@ $174.48 · 2025-02-12
EMANUEL ARIEL Z
Chief Executive Officer
$54.18M
@ $163.27 · 2025-02-07
WHITESELL PATRICK
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$54.18M
@ $163.27 · 2025-02-07
SILVER LAKE WEST HOLDCO, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$54.18M
@ $163.27 · 2025-02-07
EMANUEL ARIEL Z
Chief Executive Officer
$39.55M
@ $157.27 · 2025-02-04
WHITESELL PATRICK
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$39.55M
@ $157.27 · 2025-02-04
SILVER LAKE WEST HOLDCO, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$39.55M
@ $157.27 · 2025-02-04
EMANUEL ARIEL Z
Chief Executive Officer
$40.71M
@ $157.44 · 2025-01-30
SILVER LAKE WEST HOLDCO, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$40.71M
@ $157.44 · 2025-01-30
EMANUEL ARIEL Z
Chief Executive Officer
$48.00M
@ $152.27 · 2025-01-27
WHITESELL PATRICK
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$48.00M
@ $152.27 · 2025-01-27
EMANUEL ARIEL Z
Chief Executive Officer
$50.28M
@ $143.65 · 2025-01-22
WHITESELL PATRICK
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$50.28M
@ $143.65 · 2025-01-22
SILVER LAKE WEST HOLDCO, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$50.28M
@ $143.65 · 2025-01-22
EMANUEL ARIEL Z
Chief Executive Officer
$77.40M
@ $147.04 · 2024-12-17
WHITESELL PATRICK
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$77.40M
@ $147.04 · 2024-12-17
SILVER LAKE WEST HOLDCO, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$77.40M
@ $147.04 · 2024-12-17
EMANUEL ARIEL Z
Chief Executive Officer
$48.13M
@ $142.64 · 2024-12-13
WHITESELL PATRICK
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$48.13M
@ $142.64 · 2024-12-13
SILVER LAKE WEST HOLDCO, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$48.13M
@ $142.64 · 2024-12-13
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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ORCL
1
Sells (3M)
15
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $126.77M
HENLEY JEFFREY O
Officer and Director
$63.66M
@ $159.16 · 2026-06-24
LEVEY STUART A
Officer
$2.64M
@ $176.19 · 2026-04-16
MAGOUYRK CLAYTON M
Chief Executive Officer
$1.55M
@ $155.23 · 2026-02-09
KEHRING DOUGLAS A
Officer
$6.82M
@ $194.89 · 2026-01-15
HURA MARK
Officer
$2.95M
@ $196.89 · 2025-12-24
SELIGMAN NAOMI O
Director
$437,064
@ $196.61 · 2025-12-23
MAGOUYRK CLAYTON M
Chief Executive Officer
$1.93M
@ $192.52 · 2025-12-19
SMITH MARIA
Officer
$2.80M
@ $280.31 · 2025-10-23
MAGOUYRK CLAYTON M
Chief Executive Officer
$11.07M
@ $276.64 · 2025-10-21
LEVEY STUART A
Officer
$5.93M
@ $300.00 · 2025-10-10
SELIGMAN NAOMI O
Director
$641,958
@ $288.91 · 2025-09-26
SICILIA MICHAEL D
Officer
$10.87M
@ $321.16 · 2025-09-23
SICILIA MICHAEL D
Officer
$5.12M
@ $313.60 · 2025-09-16
MAGOUYRK CLAYTON M
President
$6.31M
@ $297.11 · 2025-09-12
SICILIA MICHAEL D
Officer
$4.04M
@ $254.48 · 2025-08-05
SELIGMAN NAOMI O
Director
$770,656
@ $233.32 · 2025-07-16
SMITH MARIA
Officer
$2.33M
@ $232.99 · 2025-07-03
CATZ SAFRA A
Chief Executive Officer
$267.24M
@ $212.01 · 2025-06-27
CATZ SAFRA A
Chief Executive Officer
$794.64M
@ $212.50 · 2025-06-26
CATZ SAFRA A
Chief Executive Officer
$764.01M
@ $206.77 · 2025-06-23
MAGOUYRK CLAYTON M
Officer
$3.21M
@ $214.10 · 2025-06-17
CONRADES GEORGE HENRY
Director
$1.74M
@ $213.49 · 2025-06-17
SELIGMAN NAOMI O
Director
$428,562
@ $149.53 · 2025-05-05
SELIGMAN NAOMI O
Director
$291,620
@ $145.81 · 2025-04-02
CATZ SAFRA A
Chief Executive Officer
$705.46M
@ $185.40 · 2025-01-24
SMITH MARIA
Officer
$1.04M
@ $165.00 · 2024-09-16
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
TKO
3
Sells (3M)
38
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $53.75M
KHAN NICHOLAS
Director
$4.20M
@ $182.18 · 2026-07-21
KHAN NICHOLAS
Director
$1.75M
@ $182.63 · 2026-07-13
KHAN NICHOLAS
Director
$1.99M
@ $207.56 · 2026-06-12
KHAN NICHOLAS
Director
$1.77M
@ $185.99 · 2026-05-04
KHAN NICHOLAS
Director
$1.89M
@ $198.59 · 2026-04-06
KAPRAL SHANE
Chief Financial Officer
$50,584
@ $199.15 · 2026-03-09
KHAN NICHOLAS
Director
$2.10M
@ $220.29 · 2026-03-03
KAPRAL SHANE
Chief Financial Officer
$136,697
@ $221.91 · 2026-03-03
KAPRAL SHANE
Chief Financial Officer
$129,360
@ $210.00 · 2026-02-23
KAPRAL SHANE
Officer
$128,134
@ $208.01 · 2026-02-17
KAPRAL SHANE
Officer
$130,309
@ $211.54 · 2026-02-09
KAPRAL SHANE
Officer
$124,457
@ $202.04 · 2026-02-02
KRAUSS SETH D
Officer
$455,802
@ $200.71 · 2026-01-27
KAPRAL SHANE
Chief Financial Officer
$124,671
@ $202.72 · 2026-01-27
SHAPIRO MARK S
President
$2.90M
@ $201.98 · 2026-01-22
KHAN NICHOLAS
Director
$1.56M
@ $201.98 · 2026-01-22
KHAN NICHOLAS
Director
$1.92M
@ $201.31 · 2026-01-22
KAPRAL SHANE
Chief Financial Officer
$374,962
@ $202.57 · 2026-01-22
SCHLEIMER ANDREW M
Chief Financial Officer
$2.42M
@ $201.98 · 2026-01-22
KRAUSS SETH D
Officer
$2.82M
@ $201.22 · 2026-01-21
KAPRAL SHANE
Officer
$148,924
@ $198.83 · 2026-01-12
KRAUSS SETH D
Officer
$1.14M
@ $200.39 · 2026-01-09
KAPRAL SHANE
Chief Financial Officer
$45,129
@ $201.47 · 2026-01-07
SHAPIRO MARK S
President
$6.54M
@ $204.08 · 2026-01-05
KHAN NICHOLAS
Director
$7.64M
@ $204.01 · 2026-01-05
KAPRAL SHANE
Chief Financial Officer
$397,385
@ $204.21 · 2026-01-05
SCHLEIMER ANDREW M
Chief Financial Officer
$1.17M
@ $204.08 · 2026-01-05
KRAUSS SETH D
Officer
$2.03M
@ $207.67 · 2026-01-02
KAPRAL SHANE
Officer
$109,115
@ $215.22 · 2025-12-29
KAPRAL SHANE
Chief Financial Officer
$52,436
@ $206.44 · 2025-12-15
KAPRAL SHANE
Chief Financial Officer
$51,412
@ $202.41 · 2025-12-08
KHAN NICHOLAS
Director
$1.86M
@ $195.16 · 2025-12-03
KAPRAL SHANE
Officer
$48,976
@ $192.82 · 2025-12-01
KAPRAL SHANE
Chief Financial Officer
$45,293
@ $178.32 · 2025-11-24
KAPRAL SHANE
Chief Financial Officer
$46,624
@ $183.56 · 2025-11-17
KHAN NICHOLAS
Director
$1.79M
@ $188.26 · 2025-11-03
KHAN NICHOLAS
Director
$1.88M
@ $197.82 · 2025-10-03
KHAN NICHOLAS
Director
$1.77M
@ $186.43 · 2025-09-03
KHAN NICHOLAS
Director
$9.31M
@ $170.22 · 2025-07-22
KHAN NICHOLAS
Director
$1.68M
@ $176.96 · 2025-07-03
KHAN NICHOLAS
Director
$1.51M
@ $158.46 · 2025-06-02
KRAUSS SETH D
Officer
$350,584
@ $143.80 · 2025-01-21
KAPRAL SHANE
Officer
$18,694
@ $143.80 · 2025-01-21
SCHLEIMER ANDREW M
Chief Financial Officer
$469,507
@ $143.80 · 2025-01-21
SHAPIRO MARK S
Officer and Director
$4.49M
@ $141.94 · 2025-01-03
KRAUSS SETH D
Officer
$576,986
@ $141.94 · 2025-01-03
KHAN NICHOLAS
Director
$3.90M
@ $141.94 · 2025-01-03
KAPRAL SHANE
Officer
$146,766
@ $141.94 · 2025-01-03
SCHLEIMER ANDREW M
Chief Financial Officer
$769,173
@ $141.94 · 2025-01-03
SHAPIRO MARK S
President
$3.56M
@ $114.76 · 2024-09-16
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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ORCL
FearGreed
😨Fear(36/100)

"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
TKO
FearGreed
😐Neutral(46/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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ORCL
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (36)
TKO
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (46)
View ORCL Full AnalysisView TKO Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: ORCL vs TKO

Is Oracle Corporation or TKO Group Holdings, Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, ORCL trades at a 66.2% margin of safety (intrinsic value $404 vs. price $136), compared to TKO's -70.6% margin of safety (intrinsic $110 vs. $188).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Oracle Corporation or TKO Group Holdings, Inc.?▼

ORCL scores 67/100 (Narrow moat), while TKO scores 30/100 (None moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is Oracle Corporation in financial distress?▼

ORCL's Altman Z-Score of 1.6 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. TKO scores 2.0 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which company has better free cash flow, Oracle Corporation or TKO Group Holdings, Inc.?▼

TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO) generates a 3.2% free cash flow yield, compared to Oracle Corporation's -6.2%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Oracle Corporation or TKO Group Holdings, Inc.?▼

ORCL earns 9.2% ROIC versus TKO's 6.3%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Oracle Corporation's or TKO Group Holdings, Inc.'s?▼

ORCL's dividend earns a safety score of 79/100 (Safe), compared to TKO's 45/100 (Borderline). ORCL has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.