Compare Stocks › COST vs ORCL

Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) vs Oracle Corporation (ORCL): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-08-03, COST is overvalued at $952, with a DCF intrinsic value of $452 and a margin of safety of -111%. ORCL is undervalued at $130, with an intrinsic value of $404 and a margin of safety of 68%. Of the two, ORCL has the wider margin of safety.

COST

Costco Wholesale Corporation

$951.89

ORCL

Oracle Corporation

$129.87

Rewards

COST

★Costco Wholesale Corporation has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
★Costco Wholesale Corporation scores 96/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
★Free cash flow has grown at a 30.8% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.

ORCL

★Gross margin of 65.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $3.80 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.

Risks

COST

⚠Gross margin of 12.9% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
⚠Despite buyback spending, shares outstanding increased in 3 out of 4 years — stock-based compensation is offsetting repurchases.
⚠FCF yield of 1.6% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.

ORCL

⚠Despite buyback spending, shares outstanding increased in 3 out of 4 years — stock-based compensation is offsetting repurchases.
⚠High leverage (3.15x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
⚠Net debt/EBITDA of 4.4x indicates heavy leverage — it would take over 4 years of EBITDA to pay off net debt.

Key Valuation Metrics

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COST

ORCL

Valuation

$6.95B

Free Cash Flow

$-24.54B

1.65%

FCF Yield

-6.56%

47.86

Trailing P/E

22.28

42.03

Forward P/E

11.93

Quality & Moat

31.32%

ROIC

9.15%

29.15%

ROE

53.38%

12.88%

Gross Margin

65.82%

4.62

PEG Ratio

0.73

Balance Sheet Safety

Net cash

Net Debt / Equity

3.15

N/A

Interest Coverage

N/A

-0.07

Net Debt / EBITDA

4.44

0.62%

Dividend Yield

1.54%

COST: 5Ties: 1ORCL: 6

COSTORCL

Historical Fundamentals

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COST

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

ORCL

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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COST

$19.41

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Exceptional Value Creator

Σ Retained

$9.28B

Δ Market Cap

+$180.14B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

ORCL

$3.51

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Exceptional Value Creator

Σ Retained

$25.08B

Δ Market Cap

+$87.99B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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COST

110.8% Overvalued

Price is 110.8% above estimated fair value

Current Price: $951.89

Strongly undervalued

Fairly valued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $451.66

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

ORCL

67.8% Margin of Safety

Price is 67.8% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $129.87

Strongly undervalued

Fairly valued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $403.51

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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COST

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $952?

+20.8%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +22.9%

The market implies +20.8% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +22.9%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

ORCL

Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

Economic Moat Score

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COST

96/100

Wide Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. ROIC Consistency is the standout factor.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

ORCL

67/100

Narrow Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving reinvestment efficiency would strengthen the moat.

Forensic Accounting

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COST

-2.65

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

ORCL

-2.58

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Ownership Breakdown

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COST

Insiders 0.2%Institutions 73.8%Retail & Other 26.0%

No. of Institutional Holders5,145

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

ORCL

Insiders 40.5%Institutions 43.9%Retail & Other 15.6%

No. of Institutional Holders4,502

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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COST

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

No open market insider purchases found.

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

ORCL

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

FAIRHEAD RONA ALISON

Director

$112,258

@ $233.87 · 2025-07-07

MOORMAN CHARLES W IV

Director

$947,913

@ $172.35 · 2025-02-12

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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COST

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $15.13M

DENMAN KENNETH D

Director

$847,345

@ $957.45 · 2026-06-23

FRATES CATON

Officer

$695,100

@ $993.00 · 2026-04-01

ADAMO CLAUDINE

Officer

$732,205

@ $1003.02 · 2026-03-09

JONES TERESA A

Officer

$838,318

@ $986.26 · 2026-01-21

DECKER SUSAN LYNNE

Director

$437,390

@ $955.00 · 2026-01-16

KLAUER JAMES C

Officer

$1.41M

@ $939.00 · 2026-01-14

POLIT JAVIER

Officer

$2.26M

@ $866.38 · 2025-12-30

WILCOX WILLIAM RICHARD

Officer

$2.23M

@ $930.13 · 2025-11-07

ADAMO CLAUDINE

Officer

$2.53M

@ $935.68 · 2025-10-24

BARBRE TIFFANY MARIE

Divisional Officer

$1.16M

@ $934.91 · 2025-10-24

FRATES CATON

Officer

$1.40M

@ $910.02 · 2025-09-29

JONES TERESA A

Officer

$595,230

@ $992.05 · 2025-08-20

RUBANENKO YORAM B.

Officer

$3.90M

@ $974.96 · 2025-07-14

DECKER SUSAN LYNNE

Director

$536,058

@ $980.00 · 2025-06-18

CALLANS PATRICK J

Officer

$3.01M

@ $1002.77 · 2025-06-09

RIEL PIERRE

Officer

$2.03M

@ $1014.15 · 2025-06-06

KLAUER JAMES C

Officer

$3.92M

@ $981.07 · 2025-04-17

MILLERCHIP GARY

Officer

$1.03M

@ $940.01 · 2025-03-27

ADAMO CLAUDINE

Officer

$830,304

@ $922.56 · 2025-03-24

FRATES CATON

Officer

$765,213

@ $900.25 · 2025-03-18

VACHRIS ROLAND MICHAEL

Chief Executive Officer

$3.35M

@ $931.00 · 2025-03-11

GALANTI RICHARD ALAN

Officer and Director

$1.27M

@ $894.97 · 2024-10-24

JONES TERESA A

Officer

$717,236

@ $896.54 · 2024-10-23

RIEL PIERRE

Officer

$1.79M

@ $896.71 · 2024-10-15

FRATES CATON

Officer

$1.50M

@ $883.35 · 2024-09-30

CALLANS PATRICK J

Officer

$2.23M

@ $893.94 · 2024-09-30

ADAMO CLAUDINE

Officer

$2.84M

@ $888.99 · 2024-09-30

DECKER SUSAN LYNNE

Director

$543,430

@ $876.50 · 2024-08-15

GALANTI RICHARD ALAN

Officer and Director

$868,962

@ $868.96 · 2024-08-15

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

ORCL

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $126.77M

HENLEY JEFFREY O

Officer and Director

$63.66M

@ $159.16 · 2026-06-24

LEVEY STUART A

Officer

$2.64M

@ $176.19 · 2026-04-16

MAGOUYRK CLAYTON M

Chief Executive Officer

$1.55M

@ $155.23 · 2026-02-09

KEHRING DOUGLAS A

Officer

$6.82M

@ $194.89 · 2026-01-15

HURA MARK

Officer

$2.95M

@ $196.89 · 2025-12-24

SELIGMAN NAOMI O

Director

$437,064

@ $196.61 · 2025-12-23

MAGOUYRK CLAYTON M

Chief Executive Officer

$1.93M

@ $192.52 · 2025-12-19

SMITH MARIA

Officer

$2.80M

@ $280.31 · 2025-10-23

MAGOUYRK CLAYTON M

Chief Executive Officer

$11.07M

@ $276.64 · 2025-10-21

LEVEY STUART A

Officer

$5.93M

@ $300.00 · 2025-10-10

SELIGMAN NAOMI O

Director

$641,958

@ $288.91 · 2025-09-26

SICILIA MICHAEL D

Officer

$10.87M

@ $321.16 · 2025-09-23

SICILIA MICHAEL D

Officer

$5.12M

@ $313.60 · 2025-09-16

MAGOUYRK CLAYTON M

President

$6.31M

@ $297.11 · 2025-09-12

SICILIA MICHAEL D

Officer

$4.04M

@ $254.48 · 2025-08-05

SELIGMAN NAOMI O

Director

$770,656

@ $233.32 · 2025-07-16

SMITH MARIA

Officer

$2.33M

@ $232.99 · 2025-07-03

CATZ SAFRA A

Chief Executive Officer

$267.24M

@ $212.01 · 2025-06-27

CATZ SAFRA A

Chief Executive Officer

$794.64M

@ $212.50 · 2025-06-26

CATZ SAFRA A

Chief Executive Officer

$764.01M

@ $206.77 · 2025-06-23

MAGOUYRK CLAYTON M

Officer

$3.21M

@ $214.10 · 2025-06-17

CONRADES GEORGE HENRY

Director

$1.74M

@ $213.49 · 2025-06-17

SELIGMAN NAOMI O

Director

$428,562

@ $149.53 · 2025-05-05

SELIGMAN NAOMI O

Director

$291,620

@ $145.81 · 2025-04-02

CATZ SAFRA A

Chief Executive Officer

$705.46M

@ $185.40 · 2025-01-24

SMITH MARIA

Officer

$1.04M

@ $165.00 · 2024-09-16

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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COST

😐Neutral(56/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

ORCL

😨Fear(33/100)

"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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COST

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (56)

ORCL

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (33)

View COST Full Analysis View ORCL Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: COST vs ORCL

Is Costco Wholesale Corporation or Oracle Corporation more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, ORCL trades at a 67.8% margin of safety (intrinsic value $404 vs. price $130), compared to COST's -110.8% margin of safety (intrinsic $452 vs. $952).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Costco Wholesale Corporation or Oracle Corporation?▼

COST scores 96/100 (Wide moat), while ORCL scores 67/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is Oracle Corporation in financial distress?▼

ORCL's Altman Z-Score of 1.6 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. COST scores 9.2 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which company has better free cash flow, Costco Wholesale Corporation or Oracle Corporation?▼

Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) generates a 1.6% free cash flow yield, compared to Oracle Corporation's -6.6%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Costco Wholesale Corporation or Oracle Corporation?▼

COST earns 31.3% ROIC versus ORCL's 9.2%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Costco Wholesale Corporation's or Oracle Corporation's?▼

COST's dividend earns a safety score of 85/100 (Very Safe), compared to ORCL's 79/100 (Safe). COST has raised its dividend for 0 consecutive years.