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ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) vs Oracle Corporation (ORCL): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-11-01, ON is undervalued at $72, with a DCF intrinsic value of $337 and a margin of safety of 79%. ORCL is undervalued at $131, with an intrinsic value of $385 and a margin of safety of 66%. Of the two, ON has the wider margin of safety.

ON
ON Semiconductor Corporation
$71.67
VS
ORCL
Oracle Corporation
$130.67

Rewards

ON
  • ★Trailing P/E of 46.2x is 21% below the historical average of 58.6x — potentially undervalued relative to its own history.
  • ★PEG ratio of 0.16 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate — paying less than 1x for each unit of earnings growth.
  • ★Altman Z-Score of 4.70 indicates very low bankruptcy risk — the company is firmly in the safe zone.
ORCL
  • ★Gross margin of 64.0% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
  • ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $3.80 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.

Risks

ON
  • ⚠ROIC has declined by 17.0 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
  • ⚠FCF yield of 5.9% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.
  • ⚠8 insider sales with no purchases over the past 12 months — a persistent pattern of insider selling.
ORCL
  • ⚠Despite buyback spending, shares outstanding increased in 3 out of 4 years — stock-based compensation is offsetting repurchases.
  • ⚠High leverage (1.97x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
  • ⚠Altman Z-Score of 1.57 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.

Key Valuation Metrics

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ON
ORCL
Valuation
$1.66B
Free Cash Flow
$-45.85B
5.94%
FCF Yield
-11.58%
46.24
Trailing P/E
20.48
15.75
Forward P/E
11.84
Quality & Moat
8.00%
ROIC
8.55%
8.31%
ROE
41.19%
42.78%
Gross Margin
63.96%
0.16
PEG Ratio
0.73
Balance Sheet Safety
0.12
Net Debt / Equity
1.97
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
0.40
Net Debt / EBITDA
3.84
0.00%
Dividend Yield
1.53%
ON: 5Ties: 1ORCL: 6
ONORCL

Historical Fundamentals

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ON

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

ORCL

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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ON
$-1.41
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Market Cap Declined
Σ Retained
$3.88B
Δ Market Cap
$-5.46B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
ORCL
$3.60
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$25.08B
Δ Market Cap
+$90.30B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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ON
19.2% Margin of Safety
Price is 19.2% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $71.67
Fair Value: $88.71
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
ORCL
66.0% Margin of Safety
Price is 66.0% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $130.67
Fair Value: $384.55
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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ON

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $72?

+23.1%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +5.8%

The market implies +23.1% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +5.8%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

ORCL

Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

Economic Moat Score

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ON
41/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with roic consistency as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
ORCL
67/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving reinvestment efficiency would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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ON
-3.04
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
ORCL
-2.58
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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ON
Insiders 0.3%Institutions 106.1%
No. of Institutional Holders1,396
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
ORCL
Insiders 38.4%Institutions 43.5%Retail & Other 18.1%
No. of Institutional Holders4,494
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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ON
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
ORCL
1
Buys (3M)
1
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $3.48M
RUSCKOWSKI STEPHEN H
Director
$3.48M
@ $139.35 · 2026-09-29
FAIRHEAD RONA ALISON
Director
$112,258
@ $233.87 · 2025-07-07
MOORMAN CHARLES W IV
Director
$947,913
@ $172.35 · 2025-02-12
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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ON
0
Sells (3M)
8
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $20.06M
THAD TRENT
Chief Financial Officer
$5.79M
@ $96.50 · 2026-04-24
THAD TRENT
Chief Financial Officer
$2.40M
@ $80.00 · 2026-04-16
GOPALSWAMY SUDHIR
Officer
$358,708
@ $58.67 · 2026-03-13
KEETON SIMON
Officer
$3.51M
@ $71.75 · 2026-02-17
EL KHOURY HASSANE
Chief Executive Officer
$1.46M
@ $73.02 · 2026-02-12
THAD TRENT
Chief Financial Officer
$4.27M
@ $71.22 · 2026-02-12
KEETON SIMON
Officer
$1.17M
@ $55.72 · 2025-12-04
THAD TRENT
Chief Financial Officer
$1.10M
@ $55.05 · 2025-12-03
EL KHOURY HASSANE
Chief Executive Officer
$768,260
@ $51.22 · 2025-08-13
CAMPBELL ALAN
Director
$274,780
@ $51.16 · 2025-06-12
CAMPBELL ALAN
Director
$432,257
@ $43.23 · 2025-03-12
KEETON SIMON
Officer
$1.92M
@ $68.56 · 2024-12-17
GOPALSWAMY SUDHIR
Officer
$1.43M
@ $67.64 · 2024-12-17
EL KHOURY HASSANE
Chief Executive Officer
$105,000
@ $70.00 · 2024-12-17
EL KHOURY HASSANE
Chief Executive Officer
$106,500
@ $71.00 · 2024-11-25
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
ORCL
3
Sells (3M)
10
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $85.34M
SMITH MARIA
Officer
$399,123
@ $151.70 · 2026-09-22
SICILIA MICHAEL D
Chief Executive Officer
$3.42M
@ $151.59 · 2026-09-22
SICILIA MICHAEL D
Chief Executive Officer
$1.52M
@ $139.94 · 2026-09-16
HENLEY JEFFREY O
Officer and Director
$63.66M
@ $159.16 · 2026-06-24
LEVEY STUART A
Officer
$2.64M
@ $176.19 · 2026-04-16
MAGOUYRK CLAYTON M
Chief Executive Officer
$1.55M
@ $155.23 · 2026-02-09
KEHRING DOUGLAS A
Officer
$6.82M
@ $194.89 · 2026-01-15
HURA MARK
Officer
$2.95M
@ $196.89 · 2025-12-24
SELIGMAN NAOMI O
Director
$437,064
@ $196.61 · 2025-12-23
MAGOUYRK CLAYTON M
Chief Executive Officer
$1.93M
@ $192.52 · 2025-12-19
SMITH MARIA
Officer
$2.80M
@ $280.31 · 2025-10-23
MAGOUYRK CLAYTON M
Chief Executive Officer
$11.07M
@ $276.64 · 2025-10-21
LEVEY STUART A
Officer
$5.93M
@ $300.00 · 2025-10-10
SELIGMAN NAOMI O
Director
$641,958
@ $288.91 · 2025-09-26
SICILIA MICHAEL D
Officer
$10.87M
@ $321.16 · 2025-09-23
SICILIA MICHAEL D
Officer
$5.12M
@ $313.60 · 2025-09-16
MAGOUYRK CLAYTON M
President
$6.31M
@ $297.11 · 2025-09-12
SICILIA MICHAEL D
Officer
$4.04M
@ $254.48 · 2025-08-05
SELIGMAN NAOMI O
Director
$770,656
@ $233.32 · 2025-07-16
SMITH MARIA
Officer
$2.33M
@ $232.99 · 2025-07-03
CATZ SAFRA A
Chief Executive Officer
$267.24M
@ $212.01 · 2025-06-27
CATZ SAFRA A
Chief Executive Officer
$794.64M
@ $212.50 · 2025-06-26
CATZ SAFRA A
Chief Executive Officer
$764.01M
@ $206.77 · 2025-06-23
MAGOUYRK CLAYTON M
Officer
$3.21M
@ $214.10 · 2025-06-17
CONRADES GEORGE HENRY
Director
$1.74M
@ $213.49 · 2025-06-17
SELIGMAN NAOMI O
Director
$428,562
@ $149.53 · 2025-05-05
SELIGMAN NAOMI O
Director
$291,620
@ $145.81 · 2025-04-02
CATZ SAFRA A
Chief Executive Officer
$705.46M
@ $185.40 · 2025-01-24
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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ON
FearGreed
😨Fear(29/100)

"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
ORCL
FearGreed
😨Fear(33/100)

"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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ON
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (29)
ORCL
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (33)
View ON Full AnalysisView ORCL Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: ON vs ORCL

Is ON Semiconductor Corporation or Oracle Corporation more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, ON trades at a 78.7% margin of safety (intrinsic value $337 vs. price $72), compared to ORCL's 66.0% margin of safety (intrinsic $385 vs. $131).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, ON Semiconductor Corporation or Oracle Corporation?▼

ORCL scores 67/100 (Narrow moat), while ON scores 41/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is Oracle Corporation in financial distress?▼

ORCL's Altman Z-Score of 1.6 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. ON scores 4.7 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which company has better free cash flow, ON Semiconductor Corporation or Oracle Corporation?▼

ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON) generates a 5.9% free cash flow yield, compared to Oracle Corporation's -11.6%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, ON Semiconductor Corporation or Oracle Corporation?▼

ORCL earns 8.5% ROIC versus ON's 8.0%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

ON vs ORCL: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026? | SafetyMargin.io