NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) vs Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-09-17, NVDA is overvalued at $220, with a DCF intrinsic value of $163 and a margin of safety of -35%. STX is undervalued at $788, with an intrinsic value of $1054 and a margin of safety of 25%. Of the two, STX has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★NVIDIA Corporation has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
- ★Gross margin of 74.7% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Free cash flow has grown at a 193.9% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
- ★Free cash flow has grown at a 70.5% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $12.33 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
- ★PEG ratio of 0.46 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate — paying less than 1x for each unit of earnings growth.
Risks
- ⚠FCF yield of 1.8% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
- ⚠Beneish M-Score of -1.06 flags financial patterns consistent with potential earnings manipulation — warrants further investigation.
- ⚠19 insider sales with no purchases over the past 12 months — a persistent pattern of insider selling.
- ⚠FCF yield of 1.7% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
- ⚠33 insider sales totaling $370.9M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $220?
The market implies +18.4% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.
Standard FCF implies a more demanding +21.4%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $788?
The market implies +22.0% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.
Standard FCF implies a more demanding +22.3%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Narrow moat with roic consistency as the key competitive advantage. Improving revenue predictability would strengthen the moat.
Narrow moat with reinvestment efficiency as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: NVDA vs STX
Is NVIDIA Corporation or Seagate Technology Holdings plc more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, STX trades at a 25.2% margin of safety (intrinsic value $1054 vs. price $788), compared to NVDA's -34.7% margin of safety (intrinsic $163 vs. $220).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, NVIDIA Corporation or Seagate Technology Holdings plc?▼
NVDA scores 69/100 (Narrow moat), while STX scores 41/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Which company has better free cash flow, NVIDIA Corporation or Seagate Technology Holdings plc?▼
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) generates a 1.8% free cash flow yield, compared to Seagate Technology Holdings plc's 1.7%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, NVIDIA Corporation or Seagate Technology Holdings plc?▼
STX earns 68.4% ROIC versus NVDA's 59.2%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, NVIDIA Corporation's or Seagate Technology Holdings plc's?▼
NVDA's dividend earns a safety score of 91/100 (Very Safe), compared to STX's 85/100 (Very Safe). NVDA has raised its dividend for 2 consecutive years.
Does NVIDIA Corporation have accounting red flags?▼
NVDA's Beneish M-Score of -1.1 flags it as a likely earnings manipulator (above the -1.78 threshold). By contrast, STX scores -2.2, within the normal range. The Beneish model detects aggressive accounting through eight financial ratios.