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Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC) vs Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)

NSC
Norfolk Southern Corporation
$278.19
VS
UNP
Union Pacific Corporation
$234.18

Rewards

NSC
  • ★Norfolk Southern Corporation has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
  • ★Norfolk Southern Corporation scores 71/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
  • ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $2.35 of market value — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
UNP
  • ★Union Pacific Corporation has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
  • ★Union Pacific Corporation scores 80/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with margin stability as the strongest competitive dimension.
  • ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.

Risks

NSC
    UNP
    • ⚠PEG ratio of 2.88 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.

    Key Valuation Metrics

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    NSC
    UNP
    Valuation
    $2.16B
    Free Cash Flow
    $5.50B
    3.45%
    FCF Yield
    3.96%
    21.84
    Trailing P/E
    19.56
    20.52
    Forward P/E
    17.34
    Quality & Moat
    8.98%
    ROIC
    15.44%
    18.48%
    ROE
    38.65%
    45.95%
    Gross Margin
    56.35%
    N/A
    PEG Ratio
    2.88
    Balance Sheet Safety
    1.15
    Debt / Equity
    1.78
    N/A
    Interest Coverage
    N/A
    2.91
    Net Debt / EBITDA
    2.52
    1.90%
    Dividend Yield
    2.33%
    NSC: 1Ties: 1UNP: 9
    NSCUNP

    Historical Fundamentals

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    NSC

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

    UNP

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

    $1 Retained Earnings Test

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    NSC
    $2.35
    created per $1 retained over 3 years
    Exceptional Value Creator
    Σ Retained
    $3.66B
    Δ Market Cap
    +$8.59B
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
    UNP
    $0.98
    created per $1 retained over 3 years
    Mediocre Allocator
    Σ Retained
    $10.64B
    Δ Market Cap
    +$10.42B
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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    NSC
    0.5% Overvalued
    Price is 0.5% above estimated fair value
    Current Price: $278.19
    Fair Value: $276.75
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued
    UNP
    6.5% Overvalued
    Price is 6.5% above estimated fair value
    Current Price: $234.18
    Fair Value: $219.93
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued

    Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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    NSC

    What growth rate is the market pricing in at $278?

    +12.0%
    Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
    Standard FCF implies +15.9%

    The market implies +12.0% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

    Standard FCF implies a demanding +15.9%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

    UNP

    What growth rate is the market pricing in at $234?

    +10.1%
    Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
    Standard FCF implies +13.7%

    The market implies +10.1% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

    Standard FCF implies a demanding +13.7%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

    Economic Moat Score

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    NSC
    71/100
    Wide Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
    UNP
    80/100
    Wide Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    Wide moat driven primarily by margin stability. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

    Forensic Accounting

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    NSC
    -2.63
    Unlikely Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
    UNP
    -2.62
    Unlikely Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Ownership Breakdown

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    NSC
    Insiders 0.1%Institutions 78.3%Retail & Other 21.7%
    No. of Institutional Holders2,270
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
    UNP
    Insiders 0.2%Institutions 89.0%Retail & Other 10.8%
    No. of Institutional Holders3,432
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    Insider Buying Activity

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    NSC
    0
    Buys (3M)
    3
    Buys (12M)
    Total value (12M): $1.26M
    CLYBURN WILLIAM JR.
    Director
    $60,137
    @ $294.79 · 2025-12-05
    FAHMY, SAMEH
    Director
    $466,900
    @ $282.97 · 2025-11-05
    ANDERSON RICHARD H
    Director
    $732,823
    @ $281.86 · 2025-10-27
    LAMPHERE GILBERT H
    Director
    $157,735
    @ $259.86 · 2025-01-31
    ANDERSON RICHARD H
    Director
    $99,459
    @ $248.65 · 2024-12-13
    CLYBURN WILLIAM JR.
    Director
    $49,930
    @ $248.41 · 2024-12-13
    FAHMY, SAMEH
    Director
    $87,280
    @ $249.37 · 2024-12-12
    GEORGE MARK R.
    Chief Executive Officer
    $49,967
    @ $249.84 · 2024-12-11
    ANDERSON RICHARD H
    Director
    $257,850
    @ $257.85 · 2024-10-24
    FAHMY, SAMEH
    Director
    $255,000
    @ $255.00 · 2024-10-24
    FAHMY, SAMEH
    Director
    $244,097
    @ $244.10 · 2024-08-02
    ANDERSON RICHARD H
    Director
    $494,960
    @ $247.48 · 2024-07-29
    FAHMY, SAMEH
    Director
    $438,500
    @ $219.25 · 2024-06-14
    FAHMY, SAMEH
    Director
    $444,355
    @ $222.18 · 2024-06-03
    KELLEHER THOMAS COLM
    Director
    $501,958
    @ $219.96 · 2024-05-30
    HUFFARD JOHN C JR
    Director
    $747,288
    @ $219.92 · 2024-05-30
    LAMPHERE GILBERT H
    Director
    $149,446
    @ $219.77 · 2024-05-29
    MONGEAU CLAUDE
    Director
    $1.25M
    @ $221.00 · 2024-05-29
    ANDERSON RICHARD H
    Director
    $221,000
    @ $221.00 · 2024-05-29
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
    UNP
    0
    Buys (3M)
    0
    Buys (12M)
    No open market insider purchases found.
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

    Insider Selling Activity

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    NSC
    0
    Sells (3M)
    1
    Sells (12M)
    Total value (12M): $253,442
    BHATT ANIL
    Chief Technology Officer
    $253,442
    @ $281.60 · 2025-11-19
    SHAW ALAN H
    Former
    $13.14M
    @ $255.98 · 2024-09-13
    NAG NABANITA C
    Officer
    $88,530
    @ $249.38 · 2024-07-29
    ELKINS CLAUDE E
    Officer
    $1.90M
    @ $228.43 · 2024-05-10
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
    UNP
    0
    Sells (3M)
    0
    Sells (12M)
    RICHARDSON CRAIG V
    Officer
    $1.64M
    @ $252.00 · 2025-01-27
    WHITED ELIZABETH F.
    President
    $1.88M
    @ $250.00 · 2025-01-24
    WHITED ELIZABETH F.
    President
    $875,905
    @ $246.59 · 2024-07-30
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

    🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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    NSC
    FearGreed
    😐Neutral(47/100)

    "Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
    UNP
    FearGreed
    😐Neutral(44/100)

    "Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    ⚖️ Buffett Signal

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    NSC
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (47)
    UNP
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (44)
    View NSC Full AnalysisView UNP Full Analysis