Compare Stocks › NOC vs UNH

Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) vs UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-06-19, NOC is fairly valued at $522, with a DCF intrinsic value of $531 and a margin of safety of 2%. UNH is fairly valued at $401, with an intrinsic value of $376 and a margin of safety of -7%. Of the two, NOC has the wider margin of safety.

NOC

Northrop Grumman Corporation

$521.50

UNH

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated

$400.96

Rewards

NOC

★Free cash flow has grown at a 31.1% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
★Trailing P/E of 16.3x is 26% below the historical average of 22.0x — potentially undervalued relative to its own history.

UNH

★UnitedHealth Group Incorporated scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.

Risks

NOC

⚠Gross margin of 20.5% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
⚠PEG ratio of 4.11 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
⚠18 insider sales with no purchases over the past 12 months — a persistent pattern of insider selling.

UNH

⚠ROIC has declined by 6.9 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
⚠Gross margin of 18.8% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 11.8% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.

Key Valuation Metrics

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NOC

UNH

Valuation

$3.31B

Free Cash Flow

$17.69B

4.46%

FCF Yield

4.86%

16.34

Trailing P/E

30.17

17.30

Forward P/E

19.18

Quality & Moat

11.28%

ROIC

15.60%

28.51%

ROE

12.18%

20.52%

Gross Margin

18.80%

4.11

PEG Ratio

1.41

Balance Sheet Safety

0.90

Net Debt / Equity

0.44

N/A

Interest Coverage

N/A

2.12

Net Debt / EBITDA

2.18

1.71%

Dividend Yield

2.21%

NOC: 4Ties: 2UNH: 6

NOCUNH

Historical Fundamentals

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NOC

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

UNH

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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NOC

$-0.38

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Market Cap Declined

Σ Retained

$6.82B

Δ Market Cap

$-2.60B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

UNH

$-7.37

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Market Cap Declined

Σ Retained

$26.63B

Δ Market Cap

$-196.16B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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NOC

1.8% Margin of Safety

Price is 1.8% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $521.50

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $531.22

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

UNH

6.6% Overvalued

Price is 6.6% above estimated fair value

Current Price: $400.96

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $376.14

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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NOC

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $522?

+8.6%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +11.8%

The market implies +8.6% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +11.8%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

UNH

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $401?

+14.1%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +9.8%

The market implies +14.1% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +9.8%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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NOC

68/100

Narrow Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

UNH

73/100

Wide Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Forensic Accounting

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NOC

-2.45

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

UNH

-2.45

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Ownership Breakdown

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NOC

Insiders 0.2%Institutions 84.4%Retail & Other 15.4%

No. of Institutional Holders2,307

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

UNH

Insiders 0.2%Institutions 85.9%Retail & Other 13.8%

No. of Institutional Holders4,020

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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NOC

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

No open market insider purchases found.

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

UNH

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

HEMSLEY STEPHEN J

Chief Executive Officer

$25.02M

@ $288.57 · 2025-05-16

REX JOHN F

President

$5.00M

@ $291.12 · 2025-05-16

GIL KRISTEN

Director

$1.00M

@ $271.17 · 2025-05-15

FLYNN TIMOTHY PATRICK

Director

$491,786

@ $320.80 · 2025-05-14

NOSEWORTHY JOHN H

Director

$93,647

@ $312.16 · 2025-05-14

FLYNN TIMOTHY PATRICK

Director

$511,575

@ $511.57 · 2025-01-17

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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NOC

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $26.77M

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$54,310

@ $571.68 · 2026-05-04

SIMPSON KATHRYN G.

General Counsel

$650,385

@ $745.00 · 2026-03-02

ROEDER ROSHAN S.

Officer

$1.26M

@ $720.00 · 2026-02-27

ROEDER ROSHAN S.

Officer

$372,541

@ $727.62 · 2026-02-19

SIMPSON KATHRYN G.

General Counsel

$141,158

@ $727.62 · 2026-02-19

HARDESTY MICHAEL A

Officer

$107,748

@ $732.98 · 2026-02-19

DAVIES BENJAMIN R

Officer

$1.58M

@ $719.62 · 2026-02-18

ROEDER ROSHAN S.

Officer

$223,414

@ $702.56 · 2026-02-17

SIMPSON KATHRYN G.

General Counsel

$547,294

@ $702.56 · 2026-02-17

HARDESTY MICHAEL A

Officer

$501,609

@ $701.55 · 2026-02-17

HARDESTY MICHAEL A

Officer

$550,411

@ $702.95 · 2026-02-13

WARDEN KATHY J

Chief Executive Officer

$14.18M

@ $708.82 · 2026-02-06

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$65,029

@ $684.52 · 2026-02-02

WARDEN KATHY J

Chief Executive Officer

$6.04M

@ $604.50 · 2026-01-06

ROEDER ROSHAN S.

Officer

$46,649

@ $555.35 · 2025-12-09

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$54,716

@ $564.08 · 2025-11-24

JONES THOMAS H.

Officer

$382,725

@ $525.00 · 2025-07-17

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$16,720

@ $506.67 · 2025-07-07

JONES THOMAS H.

Officer

$368,706

@ $505.77 · 2025-06-13

FLEMING ROBERT J

Officer

$1.77M

@ $505.77 · 2025-06-13

WARDEN KATHY J

Chief Executive Officer

$5.65M

@ $502.18 · 2025-06-13

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$16,120

@ $488.48 · 2025-06-05

ROEDER ROSHAN S.

Officer

$485,590

@ $490.00 · 2025-06-04

JONES THOMAS H.

Officer

$349,920

@ $480.00 · 2025-05-30

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$16,293

@ $493.73 · 2025-05-05

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$15,850

@ $480.30 · 2025-04-07

WARDEN KATHY J

Chief Executive Officer

$1.78M

@ $475.65 · 2025-03-06

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$15,631

@ $473.67 · 2025-03-05

DAVIES BENJAMIN R

Officer

$213,788

@ $460.75 · 2025-02-28

HARDESTY MICHAEL A

Officer

$875,873

@ $453.59 · 2025-02-24

SIMPSON KATHRYN G.

General Counsel

$444,098

@ $429.08 · 2025-02-20

DAVIES BENJAMIN R

Officer

$82,383

@ $429.08 · 2025-02-20

SIMPSON KATHRYN G.

General Counsel

$395,916

@ $445.35 · 2025-02-18

DAVIES BENJAMIN R

Officer

$130,488

@ $445.35 · 2025-02-18

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$15,843

@ $480.09 · 2025-02-05

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$15,072

@ $456.73 · 2025-01-06

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$15,886

@ $481.39 · 2024-12-05

DAVIES BENJAMIN R

Officer

$616,067

@ $532.93 · 2024-11-11

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$16,833

@ $510.09 · 2024-11-05

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$17,675

@ $535.61 · 2024-10-07

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$17,151

@ $519.73 · 2024-09-05

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$17,546

@ $516.06 · 2024-08-29

JONES THOMAS H.

Officer

$695,000

@ $500.00 · 2024-08-02

JONES THOMAS H.

Officer

$1.30M

@ $469.25 · 2024-07-26

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

UNH

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $284,000

CONWAY PATRICK HUGH M.D.

Officer

$284,000

@ $355.00 · 2026-04-23

CONWAY PATRICK HUGH M.D.

Chief Executive Officer

$179,645

@ $305.00 · 2025-06-10

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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NOC

😨Fear(36/100)

"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

UNH

😏Greed(68/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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NOC

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (36)

UNH

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (68)

View NOC Full Analysis View UNH Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: NOC vs UNH

Is Northrop Grumman Corporation or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, NOC trades at a 1.8% margin of safety (intrinsic value $531 vs. price $522), compared to UNH's -6.6% margin of safety (intrinsic $376 vs. $401).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Northrop Grumman Corporation or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated?▼

UNH scores 73/100 (Wide moat), while NOC scores 68/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is UnitedHealth Group Incorporated in financial distress?▼

UNH's Altman Z-Score of 2.9 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. NOC scores 3.0 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which company has better free cash flow, Northrop Grumman Corporation or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated?▼

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) generates a 4.9% free cash flow yield, compared to Northrop Grumman Corporation's 4.5%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Northrop Grumman Corporation or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated?▼

UNH earns 15.6% ROIC versus NOC's 11.3%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Northrop Grumman Corporation's or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's?▼

NOC's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to UNH's 84/100 (Very Safe). NOC has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.