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M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) vs UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-11-01, MTB is undervalued at $221, with a DCF intrinsic value of $469 and a margin of safety of 53%. UNH is overvalued at $407, with an intrinsic value of $367 and a margin of safety of -11%. Of the two, MTB has the wider margin of safety.

MTB
M&T Bank Corporation
$220.72
VS
UNH
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
$406.97

Rewards

MTB
  • ★M&T Bank Corporation scores 79/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with reinvestment efficiency as the strongest competitive dimension.
  • ★Share count has been reduced by 10% over the past 4 years through buybacks, increasing each share's claim on earnings.
  • ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $2.15 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
UNH
  • ★UnitedHealth Group Incorporated scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.

Risks

MTB
  • ⚠Gross margin of 0.0% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
  • ⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.28 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
  • ⚠Insiders have sold $5.5M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
UNH
  • ⚠ROIC has declined by 6.9 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
  • ⚠Gross margin of 20.0% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
  • ⚠FCF yield of 7.3% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.

Key Valuation Metrics

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MTB
UNH
Valuation
N/A
Free Cash Flow
$26.50B
N/A
FCF Yield
7.25%
11.53
Trailing P/E
23.23
10.47
Forward P/E
17.48
Quality & Moat
16.08%
ROIC
11.51%
10.60%
ROE
15.77%
0.00%
Gross Margin
20.05%
1.31
PEG Ratio
1.03
Balance Sheet Safety
N/A
Net Debt / Equity
0.43
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
N/A
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.58
2.72%
Dividend Yield
2.28%
MTB: 4Ties: 1UNH: 3
MTBUNH

Historical Fundamentals

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MTB

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

UNH

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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MTB
$1.18
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Value Creator
Σ Retained
$5.13B
Δ Market Cap
+$6.03B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
UNH
$-7.37
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Market Cap Declined
Σ Retained
$26.63B
Δ Market Cap
$-196.16B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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MTB
52.9% Margin of Safety
Price is 52.9% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $220.72
Fair Value: $468.73
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
UNH
10.8% Overvalued
Price is 10.8% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $406.97
Fair Value: $367.30
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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MTB

Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

UNH

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $407?

+14.2%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +4.2%

The market implies +14.2% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +4.2%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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MTB
79/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by reinvestment efficiency. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.
UNH
73/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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MTB
-2.42
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
UNH
-2.45
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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MTB
Insiders 0.3%Institutions 92.8%Retail & Other 6.9%
No. of Institutional Holders1,522
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
UNH
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 89.6%Retail & Other 10.1%
No. of Institutional Holders4,333
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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MTB
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
UNH
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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MTB
4
Sells (3M)
18
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $21.74M
PEARSON KEVIN J
Officer
$441,500
@ $220.75 · 2026-10-16
JONES RENE F.
Chief Executive Officer
$4.64M
@ $239.35 · 2026-09-14
SESERI RUDINA
Director
$150,171
@ $241.04 · 2026-08-21
TAYLOR JOHN R
Officer
$308,923
@ $253.84 · 2026-08-17
LEDGETT RICHARD H. JR.
Director
$212,178
@ $248.16 · 2026-08-03
PEARSON KEVIN J
Officer
$484,000
@ $242.00 · 2026-07-15
WOODROW TRACY S
Officer
$213,202
@ $242.00 · 2026-07-01
TAYLOR JOHN R
Officer
$256,087
@ $233.23 · 2026-06-15
PEARSON KEVIN J
Officer
$5.27M
@ $225.50 · 2026-06-09
PEARSON KEVIN J
Officer
$440,000
@ $220.00 · 2026-06-04
KAY CHRISTOPHER E
Officer
$672,232
@ $216.50 · 2026-05-07
WISLER MICHAEL A
Officer
$1.84M
@ $223.51 · 2026-02-26
WOODROW TRACY S
Officer
$246,623
@ $234.21 · 2026-02-11
BARNES JOHN P
Director
$5.00M
@ $235.85 · 2026-02-09
WALTERS KIRK W
Director
$206,676
@ $227.37 · 2026-02-03
TAYLOR JOHN R
Officer
$158,638
@ $225.34 · 2026-02-02
GEISEL GARY N
Director
$191,369
@ $215.99 · 2026-01-28
KAY CHRISTOPHER E
Officer
$1.01M
@ $191.70 · 2025-11-26
WOODROW TRACY S
Officer
$693,061
@ $202.12 · 2025-08-29
TAYLOR JOHN R
Officer
$89,502
@ $199.78 · 2025-08-26
D'ARCY PETER
Officer
$485,570
@ $197.31 · 2025-07-22
LEDGETT RICHARD H. JR.
Director
$252,178
@ $197.48 · 2025-07-21
KAY CHRISTOPHER E
Officer
$299,527
@ $172.34 · 2025-03-12
WOODROW TRACY S
Officer
$468,200
@ $220.74 · 2024-11-26
SALAMONE DENIS J
Director
$2.23M
@ $223.41 · 2024-11-25
WISLER MICHAEL A
Officer
$2.40M
@ $213.05 · 2024-11-14
TODARO MICHAEL J
Officer
$1.02M
@ $214.10 · 2024-11-12
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
UNH
2
Sells (3M)
3
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $944,910
CONWAY PATRICK HUGH
Officer
$455,910
@ $390.00 · 2026-08-21
CONWAY PATRICK HUGH
Officer
$205,000
@ $410.00 · 2026-08-05
CONWAY PATRICK HUGH
Officer
$284,000
@ $355.00 · 2026-04-23
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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MTB
FearGreed
😐Neutral(54/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
UNH
FearGreed
😏Greed(62/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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MTB
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (54)
UNH
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (62)
View MTB Full AnalysisView UNH Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: MTB vs UNH

Is M&T Bank Corporation or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, MTB trades at a 52.9% margin of safety (intrinsic value $469 vs. price $221), compared to UNH's -10.8% margin of safety (intrinsic $367 vs. $407).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, M&T Bank Corporation or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated?▼

MTB scores 79/100 (Wide moat), while UNH scores 73/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is M&T Bank Corporation in financial distress?▼

MTB's Altman Z-Score of 0.3 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. UNH scores 2.9 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, M&T Bank Corporation or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated?▼

MTB earns 16.1% ROIC versus UNH's 11.5%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, M&T Bank Corporation's or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's?▼

MTB's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to UNH's 84/100 (Very Safe). MTB has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.

MTB vs UNH: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026? | SafetyMargin.io