Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) vs Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-06-21, MSFT is fairly valued at $379, with a DCF intrinsic value of $440 and a margin of safety of 14%. ROK is overvalued at $474, with an intrinsic value of $215 and a margin of safety of -120%. Of the two, MSFT has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Microsoft Corporation has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★Gross margin of 68.3% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Microsoft Corporation scores 88/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★Rockwell Automation, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
- ★Free cash flow has grown at a 25.8% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
- ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
Risks
- ⚠FCF yield of 2.5% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
- ⚠Insiders have sold $10.5M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
- ⚠FCF yield of 2.6% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
- ⚠Trailing P/E of 49.3x is 39% above the historical average of 35.6x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
- ⚠PEG ratio of 2.06 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $379?
The market implies +12.4% Owner Earnings growth, roughly in line with history — reasonably priced.
Standard FCF implies +17.1%, reflecting ongoing growth investment.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $474?
The market implies +21.8% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +17.6%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.
Narrow moat with reinvestment efficiency as the key competitive advantage. Improving revenue predictability would strengthen the moat.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"
"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: MSFT vs ROK
Is Microsoft Corporation or Rockwell Automation, Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, MSFT trades at a 13.7% margin of safety (intrinsic value $440 vs. price $379), compared to ROK's -120.2% margin of safety (intrinsic $215 vs. $474).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Microsoft Corporation or Rockwell Automation, Inc.?▼
MSFT scores 88/100 (Wide moat), while ROK scores 69/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Which company has better free cash flow, Microsoft Corporation or Rockwell Automation, Inc.?▼
Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK) generates a 2.6% free cash flow yield, compared to Microsoft Corporation's 2.5%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Microsoft Corporation or Rockwell Automation, Inc.?▼
MSFT earns 21.6% ROIC versus ROK's 18.9%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, Microsoft Corporation's or Rockwell Automation, Inc.'s?▼
MSFT's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to ROK's 84/100 (Very Safe). MSFT has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.