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Compare Stocks › MS vs SJM

Morgan Stanley (MS) vs The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM)

MS
Morgan Stanley
$158.55
VS
SJM
The J. M. Smucker Company
$100.41

Rewards

MS
  • ★Gross margin of 87.1% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $6.65 of market value — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
  • ★PEG ratio of 0.75 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate — paying less than 1x for each unit of earnings growth.
SJM
  • ★Dividend yield of 4.38% with a consistent or growing payout over the past 4 years.
  • ★FCF yield of 8.3% is historically attractive — the business generates significant cash relative to its price.

Risks

MS
  • ⚠High leverage (4.56x debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
  • ⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.29 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
  • ⚠7 insider sales totaling $25.2M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
SJM
  • ⚠Altman Z-Score of 1.36 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.

Key Valuation Metrics

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MS
SJM
Valuation
N/A
Free Cash Flow
$884.46M
N/A
FCF Yield
8.26%
15.53
Trailing P/E
N/A
12.89
Forward P/E
9.95
Quality & Moat
3.43%
ROIC
10.40%
14.42%
ROE
-23.51%
87.06%
Gross Margin
34.21%
0.75
PEG Ratio
N/A
Balance Sheet Safety
4.56
Debt / Equity
1.43
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
N/A
Net Debt / EBITDA
3.96
2.52%
Dividend Yield
4.38%
MS: 2Ties: 1SJM: 4
MSSJM

Historical Fundamentals

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MS

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

SJM

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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MS
$6.65
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$20.84B
Δ Market Cap
+$138.59B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
SJM
N/A
Net losses over 3 years — test not applicable
Company had negative cumulative retained earnings
Σ Retained
$-1.90B
Δ Market Cap
$-6.46B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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MS
45.5% Margin of Safety
Price is 45.5% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $158.55
Fair Value: $290.92
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
SJM
34.8% Margin of Safety
Price is 34.8% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $100.41
Fair Value: $153.98
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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MS

Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

SJM

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $100?

+8.1%
Market-Implied FCF Growth Rate

Market above historical growth — verify catalysts.

Economic Moat Score

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MS
32/100
No Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

No durable moat detected, though revenue predictability shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
SJM
51/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving roic consistency would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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MS
-2.09
Possible Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
SJM
-3.33
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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MS
Insiders 24.0%Institutions 62.7%Retail & Other 13.3%
No. of Institutional Holders3,182
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
SJM
Insiders 2.2%Institutions 95.2%Retail & Other 2.6%
No. of Institutional Holders1,123
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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MS
0
Buys (3M)
1
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $5,630
PETERSON DOUGLAS L
Director
$5,630
@ $156.39 · 2025-10-17
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
SJM
1
Buys (3M)
2
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $200,695
AMIN TARANG P
Director
$99,801
@ $113.41 · 2026-03-02
AMIN TARANG P
Director
$100,894
@ $96.09 · 2025-06-12
AMIN TARANG P
Director
$100,511
@ $114.87 · 2025-03-11
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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MS
7
Sells (3M)
16
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $62.45M
SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A
President
$6.02M
@ $182.61 · 2026-01-30
GROSSMAN ERIC F
Officer
$3.97M
@ $184.00 · 2026-01-20
CRAWLEY MANDELL L.
Officer
$1.44M
@ $183.45 · 2026-01-20
YESHAYA SHARON
Chief Financial Officer
$2.94M
@ $185.77 · 2026-01-20
SMITH CHARLES AUBREY III
Officer
$1.55M
@ $182.08 · 2026-01-20
PIZZI MICHAEL A
Officer
$3.69M
@ $184.55 · 2026-01-20
SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL
President
$5.57M
@ $183.62 · 2026-01-20
PICK EDWARD N.
Chief Executive Officer
$16.43M
@ $164.34 · 2025-10-31
GROSSMAN ERIC F
Officer
$1.69M
@ $141.12 · 2025-07-17
SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A
President
$4.09M
@ $141.13 · 2025-07-17
SMITH CHARLES AUBREY III
Officer
$2.81M
@ $140.30 · 2025-07-17
PIZZI MICHAEL A
Officer
$2.53M
@ $140.62 · 2025-07-17
SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A
President
$3.70M
@ $127.37 · 2025-05-12
HERZ ROBERT H
Director
$95,459
@ $119.32 · 2025-05-02
SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL
President
$4.80M
@ $120.00 · 2025-05-02
GROSSMAN ERIC F
Officer
$1.12M
@ $111.65 · 2025-04-15
CRAWLEY MANDELL L.
Officer
$1.15M
@ $138.06 · 2025-01-22
GROSSMAN ERIC F
Officer
$1.78M
@ $136.20 · 2025-01-21
SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A
President
$5.00M
@ $136.61 · 2025-01-21
AKRAM RAJA
Chief Financial Officer
$2.38M
@ $136.01 · 2025-01-21
PIZZI MICHAEL A
Officer
$2.52M
@ $136.92 · 2025-01-21
SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL
President
$4.20M
@ $136.43 · 2025-01-21
CRAWLEY MANDELL L.
Officer
$368,375
@ $105.25 · 2024-07-26
AKRAM RAJA
Officer
$797,764
@ $106.37 · 2024-07-18
SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A
President
$4.26M
@ $106.54 · 2024-07-17
HERZ ROBERT H
Director
$106,621
@ $106.62 · 2024-07-17
CRAWLEY MANDELL L.
Officer
$692,663
@ $99.61 · 2024-05-14
GORMAN JAMES P
Officer and Director
$9.02M
@ $90.21 · 2024-04-18
SMITH CHARLES AUBREY III
Officer
$1.01M
@ $90.09 · 2024-04-17
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
SJM
0
Sells (3M)
4
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $2.81M
MARSHALL TUCKER H
Chief Financial Officer
$1.20M
@ $108.12 · 2025-09-30
SMUCKER MARK TIMOTHY
Chief Executive Officer
$715,000
@ $110.00 · 2025-09-24
PENROSE JILL R
Officer
$594,902
@ $116.26 · 2025-03-28
KNUDSEN JEANNETTE L
Officer
$298,485
@ $110.55 · 2025-03-21
MARSHALL TUCKER H
Chief Financial Officer
$569,974
@ $113.36 · 2025-03-13
MARSHALL TUCKER H
Chief Financial Officer
$112,322
@ $113.00 · 2024-12-17
SMUCKER MARK TIMOTHY
Chief Executive Officer
$1.10M
@ $110.16 · 2024-06-21
KNUDSEN JEANNETTE L
Officer
$399,264
@ $124.77 · 2024-03-27
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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MS
FearGreed
😐Neutral(48/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
SJM
FearGreed
😨Fear(36/100)

"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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MS
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (48)
SJM
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (36)
View MS Full AnalysisView SJM Full Analysis