Compare Stocks › MS vs RSG

Morgan Stanley (MS) vs Republic Services, Inc. (RSG): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-11-01, MS is undervalued at $184, with a DCF intrinsic value of $314 and a margin of safety of 41%. RSG is overvalued at $244, with an intrinsic value of $131 and a margin of safety of -86%. Of the two, MS has the wider margin of safety.

Morgan Stanley

$184.30

RSG

Republic Services, Inc.

$244.04

Rewards

★Gross margin of 87.3% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
★Morgan Stanley scores 80/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $3.56 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.

RSG

★Republic Services, Inc. scores 89/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
★Free cash flow has grown at a 11.5% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $2.00 of earning power — management is creating shareholder value.

Risks

⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.29 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
⚠13 insider sales with no purchases over the past 12 months — a persistent pattern of insider selling.

RSG

⚠FCF yield of 2.7% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
⚠PEG ratio of 3.16 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.

Key Valuation Metrics

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RSG

Valuation

N/A

Free Cash Flow

$1.98B

N/A

FCF Yield

2.66%

14.62

Trailing P/E

33.80

13.50

Forward P/E

30.48

Quality & Moat

3.47%

ROIC

10.51%

13.84%

ROE

18.48%

87.31%

Gross Margin

43.02%

1.61

PEG Ratio

3.16

Balance Sheet Safety

Net cash

Net Debt / Equity

1.14

N/A

Interest Coverage

N/A

Net Debt / EBITDA

2.60

2.50%

Dividend Yield

1.10%

MS: 6Ties: 1RSG: 2

MSRSG

Historical Fundamentals

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Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

RSG

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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$6.65

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Exceptional Value Creator

Σ Retained

$20.84B

Δ Market Cap

+$138.59B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

RSG

$6.36

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Exceptional Value Creator

Σ Retained

$3.85B

Δ Market Cap

+$24.50B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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41.3% Margin of Safety

Price is 41.3% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $184.30

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $313.71

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

RSG

86.3% Overvalued

Price is 86.3% above estimated fair value

Current Price: $244.04

Strongly undervalued

Fairly valued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $130.97

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

RSG

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $244?

+17.3%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +18.6%

The market implies +17.3% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +18.6%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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80/100

Wide Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

RSG

89/100

Wide Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. Revenue Predictability is the standout factor.

Forensic Accounting

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-2.09

Possible Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

RSG

-2.74

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Ownership Breakdown

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Insiders 24.4%Institutions 63.5%Retail & Other 12.1%

No. of Institutional Holders3,458

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

RSG

Insiders 0.2%Institutions 99.5%Retail & Other 0.4%

No. of Institutional Holders1,828

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

PETERSON DOUGLAS L

Director

$5,630

@ $156.39 · 2025-10-17

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

RSG

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

Total value (12M): $1.58B

CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$129.31M

@ $222.63 · 2026-09-11

CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$159.59M

@ $221.41 · 2026-09-09

CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$164.70M

@ $223.99 · 2026-09-04

CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$119.10M

@ $223.04 · 2026-09-02

CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$122.37M

@ $221.52 · 2026-08-31

CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$123.51M

@ $220.52 · 2026-08-27

CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$127.03M

@ $222.42 · 2026-08-25

CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$88.18M

@ $220.30 · 2026-08-21

CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$83.40M

@ $220.08 · 2026-08-19

CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$76.64M

@ $215.26 · 2026-08-17

CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$78.33M

@ $215.81 · 2026-08-13

CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$108.15M

@ $215.57 · 2026-08-11

CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$101.84M

@ $208.69 · 2026-05-18

CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$100.53M

@ $201.40 · 2026-05-13

WEYMOUTH KATHARINE B

Director

$100,122

@ $209.46 · 2025-12-09

CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$1.00M

@ $234.91 · 2025-08-19

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $48.28M

SCHAPIRO MARY L

Director

$212,055

@ $212.06 · 2026-07-28

PIZZI MICHAEL A

Officer

$5.21M

@ $215.55 · 2026-07-17

GROSSMAN ERIC F

Officer

$2.12M

@ $190.75 · 2026-04-20

SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A

President

$2.78M

@ $189.24 · 2026-04-17

CRAWLEY MANDELL L.

Officer

$3.04M

@ $188.22 · 2026-04-16

SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL

President

$9.74M

@ $188.59 · 2026-04-16

SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A

President

$6.02M

@ $182.61 · 2026-01-30

YESHAYA SHARON

Chief Financial Officer

$2.94M

@ $185.77 · 2026-01-20

SMITH CHARLES AUBREY III

Officer

$1.55M

@ $182.08 · 2026-01-20

GROSSMAN ERIC F

Officer

$3.97M

@ $184.00 · 2026-01-20

CRAWLEY MANDELL L.

Officer

$1.44M

@ $183.45 · 2026-01-20

PIZZI MICHAEL A

Officer

$3.69M

@ $184.55 · 2026-01-20

SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL

President

$5.57M

@ $183.62 · 2026-01-20

PICK EDWARD N.

Chief Executive Officer

$16.43M

@ $164.34 · 2025-10-31

SMITH CHARLES AUBREY III

Officer

$2.81M

@ $140.30 · 2025-07-17

GROSSMAN ERIC F

Officer

$1.69M

@ $141.12 · 2025-07-17

SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A

President

$4.09M

@ $141.13 · 2025-07-17

PIZZI MICHAEL A

Officer

$2.53M

@ $140.62 · 2025-07-17

SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A

President

$3.70M

@ $127.37 · 2025-05-12

HERZ ROBERT H

Director

$95,459

@ $119.32 · 2025-05-02

SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL

President

$4.80M

@ $120.00 · 2025-05-02

GROSSMAN ERIC F

Officer

$1.12M

@ $111.65 · 2025-04-15

CRAWLEY MANDELL L.

Officer

$1.15M

@ $138.06 · 2025-01-22

GROSSMAN ERIC F

Officer

$1.78M

@ $136.20 · 2025-01-21

SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A

President

$5.00M

@ $136.61 · 2025-01-21

AKRAM RAJA

Chief Financial Officer

$2.38M

@ $136.01 · 2025-01-21

PIZZI MICHAEL A

Officer

$2.52M

@ $136.92 · 2025-01-21

SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL

President

$4.20M

@ $136.43 · 2025-01-21

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

RSG

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $77,877

CARLSEN ELYSE

Officer

$77,877

@ $216.32 · 2026-05-19

BRUMMER GREGG

Chief Operating Officer

$1.72M

@ $233.94 · 2025-08-22

CARLSEN ELYSE

Officer

$59,495

@ $253.17 · 2025-06-05

RICHARDSON LARSON

Officer

$525,954

@ $239.07 · 2025-03-03

BRUMMER GREGG

Chief Operating Officer

$1.44M

@ $228.20 · 2025-02-19

WEYMOUTH KATHARINE B

Director

$400,187

@ $215.27 · 2024-12-05

DELGHIACCIO BRIAN M

Chief Financial Officer

$1.07M

@ $210.02 · 2024-11-19

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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😐Neutral(49/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

RSG

😏Greed(70/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (49)

RSG

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (70)

View MS Full Analysis View RSG Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: MS vs RSG

Is Morgan Stanley or Republic Services, Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, MS trades at a 41.3% margin of safety (intrinsic value $314 vs. price $184), compared to RSG's -86.3% margin of safety (intrinsic $131 vs. $244).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Morgan Stanley or Republic Services, Inc.?▼

RSG scores 89/100 (Wide moat), while MS scores 80/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is Morgan Stanley in financial distress?▼

MS's Altman Z-Score of 0.3 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. RSG scores 3.0 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Morgan Stanley or Republic Services, Inc.?▼

RSG earns 10.5% ROIC versus MS's 3.5%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Morgan Stanley's or Republic Services, Inc.'s?▼

RSG's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to MS's 79/100 (Safe). RSG has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.