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Morgan Stanley (MS) vs Philip Morris International Inc. (PM)

MS
Morgan Stanley
$158.55
VS
PM
Philip Morris International Inc.
$163.37

Rewards

MS
  • ★Gross margin of 87.1% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $6.65 of market value — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
  • ★PEG ratio of 0.75 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate — paying less than 1x for each unit of earnings growth.
PM
  • ★Philip Morris International Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Gross margin of 67.1% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Philip Morris International Inc. scores 100/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.

Risks

MS
  • ⚠High leverage (4.56x debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
  • ⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.29 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
  • ⚠7 insider sales totaling $25.2M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
PM
  • ⚠5 insider sales totaling $27.7M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.

Key Valuation Metrics

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MS
PM
Valuation
N/A
Free Cash Flow
$8.94B
N/A
FCF Yield
3.51%
15.53
Trailing P/E
22.47
12.89
Forward P/E
17.76
Quality & Moat
3.43%
ROIC
21.33%
14.42%
ROE
N/A
87.06%
Gross Margin
67.12%
0.75
PEG Ratio
N/A
Balance Sheet Safety
4.56
Debt / Equity
N/A
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
N/A
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.39
2.52%
Dividend Yield
3.60%
MS: 3Ties: 1PM: 2
MSPM

Historical Fundamentals

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MS

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

PM

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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MS
$6.65
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$20.84B
Δ Market Cap
+$138.59B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
PM
$64.75
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$1.43B
Δ Market Cap
+$92.79B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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MS
45.5% Margin of Safety
Price is 45.5% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $158.55
Fair Value: $290.92
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
PM
16.7% Overvalued
Price is 16.7% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $163.37
Fair Value: $140.04
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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MS

Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

PM

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $163?

+11.5%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +14.7%

The market implies +11.5% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +14.7%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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MS
32/100
No Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

No durable moat detected, though revenue predictability shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
PM
100/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. ROIC Consistency is the standout factor.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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MS
-2.09
Possible Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
PM
-2.39
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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MS
Insiders 24.0%Institutions 62.7%Retail & Other 13.3%
No. of Institutional Holders3,182
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
PM
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 83.2%Retail & Other 16.6%
No. of Institutional Holders3,365
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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MS
0
Buys (3M)
1
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $5,630
PETERSON DOUGLAS L
Director
$5,630
@ $156.39 · 2025-10-17
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
PM
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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MS
7
Sells (3M)
16
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $62.45M
SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A
President
$6.02M
@ $182.61 · 2026-01-30
GROSSMAN ERIC F
Officer
$3.97M
@ $184.00 · 2026-01-20
CRAWLEY MANDELL L.
Officer
$1.44M
@ $183.45 · 2026-01-20
YESHAYA SHARON
Chief Financial Officer
$2.94M
@ $185.77 · 2026-01-20
SMITH CHARLES AUBREY III
Officer
$1.55M
@ $182.08 · 2026-01-20
PIZZI MICHAEL A
Officer
$3.69M
@ $184.55 · 2026-01-20
SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL
President
$5.57M
@ $183.62 · 2026-01-20
PICK EDWARD N.
Chief Executive Officer
$16.43M
@ $164.34 · 2025-10-31
GROSSMAN ERIC F
Officer
$1.69M
@ $141.12 · 2025-07-17
SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A
President
$4.09M
@ $141.13 · 2025-07-17
SMITH CHARLES AUBREY III
Officer
$2.81M
@ $140.30 · 2025-07-17
PIZZI MICHAEL A
Officer
$2.53M
@ $140.62 · 2025-07-17
SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A
President
$3.70M
@ $127.37 · 2025-05-12
HERZ ROBERT H
Director
$95,459
@ $119.32 · 2025-05-02
SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL
President
$4.80M
@ $120.00 · 2025-05-02
GROSSMAN ERIC F
Officer
$1.12M
@ $111.65 · 2025-04-15
CRAWLEY MANDELL L.
Officer
$1.15M
@ $138.06 · 2025-01-22
GROSSMAN ERIC F
Officer
$1.78M
@ $136.20 · 2025-01-21
SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A
President
$5.00M
@ $136.61 · 2025-01-21
AKRAM RAJA
Chief Financial Officer
$2.38M
@ $136.01 · 2025-01-21
PIZZI MICHAEL A
Officer
$2.52M
@ $136.92 · 2025-01-21
SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL
President
$4.20M
@ $136.43 · 2025-01-21
CRAWLEY MANDELL L.
Officer
$368,375
@ $105.25 · 2024-07-26
AKRAM RAJA
Officer
$797,764
@ $106.37 · 2024-07-18
SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A
President
$4.26M
@ $106.54 · 2024-07-17
HERZ ROBERT H
Director
$106,621
@ $106.62 · 2024-07-17
CRAWLEY MANDELL L.
Officer
$692,663
@ $99.61 · 2024-05-14
GORMAN JAMES P
Officer and Director
$9.02M
@ $90.21 · 2024-04-18
SMITH CHARLES AUBREY III
Officer
$1.01M
@ $90.09 · 2024-04-17
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
PM
5
Sells (3M)
5
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $27.72M
KENNEDY STACEY
Officer
$2.63M
@ $183.13 · 2026-02-20
BABEAU EMMANUEL
Officer
$6.14M
@ $181.61 · 2026-02-19
DE WILDE FREDERIC J
Officer
$3.65M
@ $182.58 · 2026-02-19
GUERIN YANN
Officer
$726,760
@ $181.69 · 2026-02-19
OLCZAK JACEK
Officer and Director
$14.57M
@ $182.18 · 2026-02-19
DAHLGREN LARS
Officer
$562,740
@ $152.96 · 2025-03-06
ANDOLINA MASSIMO
Officer
$2.73M
@ $156.05 · 2025-02-24
BABEAU EMMANUEL
Chief Financial Officer
$4.47M
@ $148.85 · 2025-02-20
BARTH WERNER
Officer
$1.49M
@ $148.67 · 2025-02-20
CALANTZOPOULOS ANDRE
Chairman of the Board
$6.06M
@ $149.06 · 2025-02-20
GUERIN YANN
General Counsel
$378,200
@ $151.28 · 2025-02-20
OLCZAK JACEK
Chief Executive Officer
$5.95M
@ $148.87 · 2025-02-20
DE WILDE FREDERIC J
Officer
$2.17M
@ $144.54 · 2025-02-07
VOLPETTI STEFANO
Officer
$1.32M
@ $132.48 · 2024-10-31
DE WILDE FREDERIC J
Officer
$3.27M
@ $130.96 · 2024-10-23
BARTH WERNER
Officer
$974,850
@ $129.98 · 2024-10-23
CALANTZOPOULOS ANDRE
Chairman of the Board
$13.23M
@ $129.85 · 2024-10-23
DE WILDE FREDERIC J
Officer
$2.39M
@ $119.30 · 2024-08-22
ANDOLINA MASSIMO
Officer
$1.04M
@ $115.35 · 2024-08-08
DE WILDE FREDERIC J
Officer
$2.26M
@ $113.01 · 2024-07-25
DE WILDE FREDERIC J
Officer
$1.93M
@ $96.42 · 2024-04-25
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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MS
FearGreed
😐Neutral(48/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
PM
FearGreed
😐Neutral(46/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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MS
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (48)
PM
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (46)
View MS Full AnalysisView PM Full Analysis