Compare Stocks › MS vs PAYX
Morgan Stanley (MS) vs Paychex, Inc. (PAYX)
MS
Morgan Stanley
$190.17
VS
PAYX
Paychex, Inc.
$93.02
Rewards
MS
- ★Gross margin of 87.4% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Morgan Stanley scores 80/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $3.11 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
PAYX
- ★Paychex, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★Gross margin of 67.2% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Paychex, Inc. scores 94/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with margin stability as the strongest competitive dimension.
Risks
MS
- ⚠High leverage (4.56x debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
- ⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.29 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
- ⚠Insiders have sold $17.7M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
PAYX
- ⚠PEG ratio of 2.26 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →MS
PAYX
Valuation
N/A
Free Cash Flow
N/A
N/A
FCF Yield
N/A
17.21
Trailing P/E
20.53
15.02
Forward P/E
15.77
Quality & Moat
3.75%
ROIC
15.41%
14.42%
ROE
41.29%
87.39%
Gross Margin
67.20%
0.54
PEG Ratio
2.26
Balance Sheet Safety
4.56
Debt / Equity
1.25
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
N/A
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.01
2.10%
Dividend Yield
4.64%
MS: 3Ties: 2PAYX: 4
MSPAYX
Historical Fundamentals
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Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
PAYX
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →MS
$6.65
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$20.84B
Δ Market Cap
+$138.59B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
PAYX
$-1.19
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Market Cap Declined
Σ Retained
$966.2M
Δ Market Cap
$-1.15B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →MS
31.0% Margin of Safety
Price is 31.0% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $190.17
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
Fair Value: $275.48
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
PAYX
5.5% Overvalued
Price is 5.5% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $93.02
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
Fair Value: $88.21
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →MS
Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.
PAYX
Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →MS
80/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None
Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.
Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
PAYX
94/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None
Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. Margin Stability is the standout factor.
Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →MS
-2.09
Possible Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
PAYX
-2.93
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
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Insiders 24.3%Institutions 63.0%Retail & Other 12.8%
No. of Institutional Holders3,167
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
PAYX
Insiders 10.4%Institutions 84.7%Retail & Other 5.0%
No. of Institutional Holders2,002
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →MS
0
Buys (3M)
1
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $5,630
PETERSON DOUGLAS L
Director
$5,630
@ $156.39 · 2025-10-17
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
PAYX
2
Buys (3M)
2
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $197,258
BONADIO THOMAS F
Director
$98,498
@ $98.50 · 2026-02-04
DOODY JOSEPH G
Director
$98,760
@ $98.76 · 2026-02-04
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →MS
4
Sells (3M)
17
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $74.11M
GROSSMAN ERIC F
Officer
$2.12M
@ $190.75 · 2026-04-20
SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A
President
$2.78M
@ $189.24 · 2026-04-17
CRAWLEY MANDELL L.
Officer
$3.04M
@ $188.22 · 2026-04-16
SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL
President
$9.74M
@ $188.59 · 2026-04-16
SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A
President
$6.02M
@ $182.61 · 2026-01-30
CRAWLEY MANDELL L.
Officer
$1.44M
@ $183.45 · 2026-01-20
YESHAYA SHARON
Chief Financial Officer
$2.94M
@ $185.77 · 2026-01-20
SMITH CHARLES AUBREY III
Officer
$1.55M
@ $182.08 · 2026-01-20
PIZZI MICHAEL A
Officer
$3.69M
@ $184.55 · 2026-01-20
SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL
President
$5.57M
@ $183.62 · 2026-01-20
GROSSMAN ERIC F
Officer
$3.97M
@ $184.00 · 2026-01-20
PICK EDWARD N.
Chief Executive Officer
$16.43M
@ $164.34 · 2025-10-31
SMITH CHARLES AUBREY III
Officer
$2.81M
@ $140.30 · 2025-07-17
PIZZI MICHAEL A
Officer
$2.53M
@ $140.62 · 2025-07-17
GROSSMAN ERIC F
Officer
$1.69M
@ $141.12 · 2025-07-17
SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A
President
$4.09M
@ $141.13 · 2025-07-17
SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A
President
$3.70M
@ $127.37 · 2025-05-12
SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL
President
$4.80M
@ $120.00 · 2025-05-02
HERZ ROBERT H
Director
$95,459
@ $119.32 · 2025-05-02
GROSSMAN ERIC F
Officer
$1.12M
@ $111.65 · 2025-04-15
CRAWLEY MANDELL L.
Officer
$1.15M
@ $138.06 · 2025-01-22
PIZZI MICHAEL A
Officer
$2.52M
@ $136.92 · 2025-01-21
SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL
President
$4.20M
@ $136.43 · 2025-01-21
GROSSMAN ERIC F
Officer
$1.78M
@ $136.20 · 2025-01-21
SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A
President
$5.00M
@ $136.61 · 2025-01-21
AKRAM RAJA
Chief Financial Officer
$2.38M
@ $136.01 · 2025-01-21
CRAWLEY MANDELL L.
Officer
$368,375
@ $105.25 · 2024-07-26
AKRAM RAJA
Officer
$797,764
@ $106.37 · 2024-07-18
HERZ ROBERT H
Director
$106,621
@ $106.62 · 2024-07-17
SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A
President
$4.26M
@ $106.54 · 2024-07-17
CRAWLEY MANDELL L.
Officer
$692,663
@ $99.61 · 2024-05-14
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
PAYX
0
Sells (3M)
4
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $16.62M
SCHRADER ROBERT L.
Chief Financial Officer
$444,391
@ $140.63 · 2025-07-16
SIMMONS CHRISTOPHER C
Officer and Treasurer
$259,826
@ $140.98 · 2025-07-16
GIBSON JOHN B JR
Chief Executive Officer
$1.76M
@ $141.92 · 2025-07-16
MUCCI MARTIN
Chairman of the Board
$14.16M
@ $145.17 · 2025-07-10
VELLI JOSEPH M
Director
$544,762
@ $149.25 · 2025-04-15
GIOJA MICHAEL E
Officer
$4.89M
@ $154.59 · 2025-04-03
BOTTINI MARK ANTHONY
Officer
$6.65M
@ $141.87 · 2024-10-16
SCHRADER ROBERT L.
Chief Financial Officer
$1.85M
@ $142.35 · 2024-10-15
GIOJA MICHAEL E
Officer
$3.67M
@ $139.03 · 2024-10-09
GIOJA MICHAEL E
Officer
$2.05M
@ $139.18 · 2024-10-04
DOODY JOSEPH G
Director
$1.13M
@ $130.69 · 2024-08-26
SIMMONS CHRISTOPHER C
Officer and Treasurer
$293,797
@ $125.34 · 2024-08-16
FLASCHEN DAVID J S
Director
$1.81M
@ $125.21 · 2024-08-05
FLASCHEN DAVID J S
Director
$1.21M
@ $125.60 · 2024-07-26
BOTTINI MARK ANTHONY
Officer
$1.11M
@ $123.60 · 2024-07-24
GIBSON JOHN B JR
Chief Executive Officer
$1.51M
@ $119.53 · 2024-07-15
MUCCI MARTIN
Chairman of the Board
$21.93M
@ $117.04 · 2024-07-02
FLASCHEN DAVID J S
Director
$2.45M
@ $124.55 · 2024-05-24
VELLI JOSEPH M
Director
$1.35M
@ $124.28 · 2024-05-17
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →MS
😏Greed(71/100)
"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"
Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
PAYX
😨Fear(38/100)
"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"
Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →MS
⚪Awaiting DCF Data
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (71)
PAYX
⚪Awaiting DCF Data
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (38)