Compare Stocks › MS vs ORLY

Morgan Stanley (MS) vs O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-06-21, MS is undervalued at $223, with a DCF intrinsic value of $298 and a margin of safety of 25%. ORLY is overvalued at $87, with an intrinsic value of $64 and a margin of safety of -35%. Of the two, MS has the wider margin of safety.

Morgan Stanley

$223.17

ORLY

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.

$86.84

Rewards

★Gross margin of 87.4% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
★Morgan Stanley scores 80/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $3.56 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.

ORLY

★O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
★O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. scores 89/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
★Altman Z-Score of 4.08 indicates very low bankruptcy risk — the company is firmly in the safe zone.

Risks

⚠Trailing P/E of 20.2x is 26% above the historical average of 16.1x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
⚠PEG ratio of 2.68 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.29 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.

ORLY

⚠FCF yield of 1.8% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
⚠5 insider sales totaling $9.8M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 14.9% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.

Key Valuation Metrics

Learn more →

ORLY

Valuation

N/A

Free Cash Flow

$1.33B

N/A

FCF Yield

1.85%

20.20

Trailing P/E

28.29

17.56

Forward P/E

24.01

Quality & Moat

3.38%

ROIC

30.40%

16.39%

ROE

N/A

87.39%

Gross Margin

51.63%

2.68

PEG Ratio

1.85

Balance Sheet Safety

Net cash

Net Debt / Equity

N/A

Interest Coverage

N/A

Net Debt / EBITDA

2.08

1.79%

Dividend Yield

0.00%

MS: 4Ties: 1ORLY: 2

MSORLY

Historical Fundamentals

Learn more →

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

ORLY

$1 Retained Earnings Test

Learn more →

$6.65

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Exceptional Value Creator

Σ Retained

$20.84B

Δ Market Cap

+$138.59B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

ORLY

$3.32

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Exceptional Value Creator

Σ Retained

$7.27B

Δ Market Cap

+$24.16B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

Learn more →

25.0% Margin of Safety

Price is 25.0% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $223.17

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $297.53

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

ORLY

24.5% Overvalued

Price is 24.5% above estimated fair value

Current Price: $86.84

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $69.74

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

Learn more →

Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

ORLY

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $87?

+14.0%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +22.8%

The market implies +14.0% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +22.8%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

Learn more →

80/100

Wide Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

ORLY

89/100

Wide Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. Revenue Predictability is the standout factor.

Forensic Accounting

Learn more →

-2.09

Possible Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

ORLY

-2.49

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Ownership Breakdown

Learn more →

Insiders 24.3%Institutions 62.8%Retail & Other 12.9%

No. of Institutional Holders3,209

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

ORLY

Insiders 0.5%Institutions 89.3%Retail & Other 10.2%

No. of Institutional Holders2,230

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

Learn more →

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

Total value (12M): $5,630

PETERSON DOUGLAS L

Director

$5,630

@ $156.39 · 2025-10-17

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

ORLY

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

No open market insider purchases found.

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

Learn more →

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $70.42M

GROSSMAN ERIC F

Officer

$2.12M

@ $190.75 · 2026-04-20

SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A

President

$2.78M

@ $189.24 · 2026-04-17

CRAWLEY MANDELL L.

Officer

$3.04M

@ $188.22 · 2026-04-16

SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL

President

$9.74M

@ $188.59 · 2026-04-16

SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A

President

$6.02M

@ $182.61 · 2026-01-30

CRAWLEY MANDELL L.

Officer

$1.44M

@ $183.45 · 2026-01-20

YESHAYA SHARON

Chief Financial Officer

$2.94M

@ $185.77 · 2026-01-20

SMITH CHARLES AUBREY III

Officer

$1.55M

@ $182.08 · 2026-01-20

GROSSMAN ERIC F

Officer

$3.97M

@ $184.00 · 2026-01-20

PIZZI MICHAEL A

Officer

$3.69M

@ $184.55 · 2026-01-20

SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL

President

$5.57M

@ $183.62 · 2026-01-20

PICK EDWARD N.

Chief Executive Officer

$16.43M

@ $164.34 · 2025-10-31

SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A

President

$4.09M

@ $141.13 · 2025-07-17

SMITH CHARLES AUBREY III

Officer

$2.81M

@ $140.30 · 2025-07-17

GROSSMAN ERIC F

Officer

$1.69M

@ $141.12 · 2025-07-17

PIZZI MICHAEL A

Officer

$2.53M

@ $140.62 · 2025-07-17

SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A

President

$3.70M

@ $127.37 · 2025-05-12

HERZ ROBERT H

Director

$95,459

@ $119.32 · 2025-05-02

SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL

President

$4.80M

@ $120.00 · 2025-05-02

GROSSMAN ERIC F

Officer

$1.12M

@ $111.65 · 2025-04-15

CRAWLEY MANDELL L.

Officer

$1.15M

@ $138.06 · 2025-01-22

SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A

President

$5.00M

@ $136.61 · 2025-01-21

AKRAM RAJA

Chief Financial Officer

$2.38M

@ $136.01 · 2025-01-21

GROSSMAN ERIC F

Officer

$1.78M

@ $136.20 · 2025-01-21

PIZZI MICHAEL A

Officer

$2.52M

@ $136.92 · 2025-01-21

SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL

President

$4.20M

@ $136.43 · 2025-01-21

CRAWLEY MANDELL L.

Officer

$368,375

@ $105.25 · 2024-07-26

AKRAM RAJA

Officer

$797,764

@ $106.37 · 2024-07-18

SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A

President

$4.26M

@ $106.54 · 2024-07-17

HERZ ROBERT H

Director

$106,621

@ $106.62 · 2024-07-17

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

ORLY

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $20.22M

HENDRICKSON THOMAS T

Director

$105,984

@ $88.32 · 2026-05-29

DUMAS ROBERT ALLEN

Officer

$7.83M

@ $92.60 · 2026-05-20

MURPHY JOHN RAYMOND

Director

$230,099

@ $88.67 · 2026-05-18

BECKHAM BRAD WALTER

Chief Executive Officer

$1.30M

@ $95.00 · 2026-05-08

HOPPER PHILIP M

Officer

$350,038

@ $94.60 · 2026-05-07

SASTRE MARIA AMALIA

Director

$92,681

@ $92.68 · 2026-02-27

MANCINI CHRISTOPHER ANDREW

Officer

$238,585

@ $101.31 · 2025-11-26

HOPPER PHILIP M

Officer

$354,361

@ $101.25 · 2025-11-26

FLETCHER JEREMY ADAM

Chief Financial Officer

$379,500

@ $100.00 · 2025-11-18

WILBANKS CARL DAVID

Officer

$9.07M

@ $102.54 · 2025-08-13

SASTRE MARIA AMALIA

Director

$60,877

@ $102.31 · 2025-08-13

REAVES SHARI LYNNE

Officer

$207,613

@ $103.81 · 2025-08-06

ODEMS RAMON PARISES

Officer

$2.72M

@ $1360.45 · 2025-05-30

MONTELLANO NAJERA JOSE A

Officer

$25,686

@ $1351.89 · 2025-05-29

MURPHY JOHN RAYMOND

Director

$275,800

@ $1379.00 · 2025-05-19

MANCINI CHRISTOPHER ANDREW

Officer

$2.11M

@ $1354.01 · 2025-02-27

REAVES SHARI LYNNE

Officer

$115,611

@ $1344.31 · 2025-02-27

CONN TAMARA F

General Counsel

$2.02M

@ $1326.78 · 2025-02-26

TARRANT JASON LEE

Officer

$2.67M

@ $1339.10 · 2025-02-25

HENSLEE GREGORY L

Chairman of the Board

$11.88M

@ $1319.95 · 2025-02-25

WEISS ANDREA M

Director

$325,184

@ $1311.23 · 2025-02-24

BECKHAM BRAD WALTER

Chief Executive Officer

$1.08M

@ $1300.00 · 2025-02-19

DUMAS ROBERT ALLEN

Officer

$6.67M

@ $1334.09 · 2025-02-13

ROGERS CHARLES FRANCIS

Officer

$4.62M

@ $1335.31 · 2025-02-13

MERZ MARK JOSEPH

Officer

$662,500

@ $1325.00 · 2025-02-12

SASTRE MARIA AMALIA

Director

$326,410

@ $1316.17 · 2025-02-12

CONN TAMARA F

General Counsel

$2.18M

@ $1245.36 · 2024-11-29

LOAFMAN JEFFERY THOMAS

Officer

$769,042

@ $1240.39 · 2024-11-25

WEISS ANDREA M

Director

$734,442

@ $1224.07 · 2024-11-22

O'REILLY DAVID E

Officer and Director

$6.15M

@ $1230.00 · 2024-11-11

KALE JUSTIN CHRISTOPHER

Officer

$119,229

@ $1157.56 · 2024-11-05

MANCINI CHRISTOPHER ANDREW

Officer

$1.75M

@ $1125.00 · 2024-08-27

CONN TAMARA F

General Counsel

$2.27M

@ $1135.00 · 2024-08-15

WILBANKS CARL DAVID

Officer

$5.63M

@ $1125.38 · 2024-08-14

PERLMAN DANA N

Director

$53,268

@ $1109.75 · 2024-08-07

JOHNSON GREGORY DALE

Director

$17.46M

@ $1136.16 · 2024-07-31

MERZ MARK JOSEPH

Officer

$462,560

@ $1120.00 · 2024-07-30

HOPPER PHILIP M

Officer

$1.15M

@ $1122.75 · 2024-07-30

HENSLEE GREGORY L

Chairman of the Board

$20.59M

@ $1127.55 · 2024-07-30

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

Learn more →

😏Greed(70/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

ORLY

😐Neutral(44/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

Learn more →

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (70)

ORLY

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (44)

View MS Full Analysis View ORLY Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: MS vs ORLY

Is Morgan Stanley or O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, MS trades at a 25.0% margin of safety (intrinsic value $298 vs. price $223), compared to ORLY's -35.0% margin of safety (intrinsic $64 vs. $87).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Morgan Stanley or O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.?▼

ORLY scores 89/100 (Wide moat), while MS scores 80/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is Morgan Stanley in financial distress?▼

MS's Altman Z-Score of 0.3 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. ORLY scores 4.1 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Morgan Stanley or O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.?▼

ORLY earns 30.4% ROIC versus MS's 3.4%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.