Compare Stocks › MS vs NOC

Morgan Stanley (MS) vs Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-06-21, MS is undervalued at $223, with a DCF intrinsic value of $298 and a margin of safety of 25%. NOC is fairly valued at $522, with an intrinsic value of $531 and a margin of safety of 2%. Of the two, MS has the wider margin of safety.

Morgan Stanley

$223.17

NOC

Northrop Grumman Corporation

$521.50

Rewards

★Gross margin of 87.4% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
★Morgan Stanley scores 80/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $3.56 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.

NOC

★Free cash flow has grown at a 31.1% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
★Trailing P/E of 16.3x is 26% below the historical average of 22.0x — potentially undervalued relative to its own history.

Risks

⚠Trailing P/E of 20.2x is 26% above the historical average of 16.1x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
⚠PEG ratio of 2.68 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
⚠Altman Z-Score of 0.29 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.

NOC

⚠Gross margin of 20.5% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
⚠PEG ratio of 3.88 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
⚠18 insider sales with no purchases over the past 12 months — a persistent pattern of insider selling.

Key Valuation Metrics

Learn more →

NOC

Valuation

N/A

Free Cash Flow

$3.31B

N/A

FCF Yield

4.46%

20.20

Trailing P/E

16.34

17.56

Forward P/E

17.30

Quality & Moat

3.38%

ROIC

11.28%

16.39%

ROE

28.51%

87.39%

Gross Margin

20.52%

2.68

PEG Ratio

3.88

Balance Sheet Safety

Net cash

Net Debt / Equity

0.90

N/A

Interest Coverage

N/A

Net Debt / EBITDA

2.12

1.79%

Dividend Yield

1.80%

MS: 3Ties: 3NOC: 3

MSNOC

Historical Fundamentals

Learn more →

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

NOC

$1 Retained Earnings Test

Learn more →

$6.65

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Exceptional Value Creator

Σ Retained

$20.84B

Δ Market Cap

+$138.59B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

NOC

$-0.38

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Market Cap Declined

Σ Retained

$6.82B

Δ Market Cap

$-2.60B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

Learn more →

25.0% Margin of Safety

Price is 25.0% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $223.17

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $297.53

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

NOC

1.8% Margin of Safety

Price is 1.8% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $521.50

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $531.22

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

Learn more →

Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

NOC

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $522?

+8.6%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +11.8%

The market implies +8.6% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +11.8%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

Learn more →

80/100

Wide Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

NOC

68/100

Narrow Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.

Forensic Accounting

Learn more →

-2.09

Possible Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

NOC

-2.45

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Ownership Breakdown

Learn more →

Insiders 24.3%Institutions 62.8%Retail & Other 12.9%

No. of Institutional Holders3,209

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

NOC

Insiders 0.2%Institutions 84.4%Retail & Other 15.4%

No. of Institutional Holders2,309

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

Learn more →

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

Total value (12M): $5,630

PETERSON DOUGLAS L

Director

$5,630

@ $156.39 · 2025-10-17

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

NOC

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

No open market insider purchases found.

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

Learn more →

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $70.42M

GROSSMAN ERIC F

Officer

$2.12M

@ $190.75 · 2026-04-20

SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A

President

$2.78M

@ $189.24 · 2026-04-17

CRAWLEY MANDELL L.

Officer

$3.04M

@ $188.22 · 2026-04-16

SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL

President

$9.74M

@ $188.59 · 2026-04-16

SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A

President

$6.02M

@ $182.61 · 2026-01-30

CRAWLEY MANDELL L.

Officer

$1.44M

@ $183.45 · 2026-01-20

YESHAYA SHARON

Chief Financial Officer

$2.94M

@ $185.77 · 2026-01-20

SMITH CHARLES AUBREY III

Officer

$1.55M

@ $182.08 · 2026-01-20

GROSSMAN ERIC F

Officer

$3.97M

@ $184.00 · 2026-01-20

PIZZI MICHAEL A

Officer

$3.69M

@ $184.55 · 2026-01-20

SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL

President

$5.57M

@ $183.62 · 2026-01-20

PICK EDWARD N.

Chief Executive Officer

$16.43M

@ $164.34 · 2025-10-31

SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A

President

$4.09M

@ $141.13 · 2025-07-17

SMITH CHARLES AUBREY III

Officer

$2.81M

@ $140.30 · 2025-07-17

GROSSMAN ERIC F

Officer

$1.69M

@ $141.12 · 2025-07-17

PIZZI MICHAEL A

Officer

$2.53M

@ $140.62 · 2025-07-17

SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A

President

$3.70M

@ $127.37 · 2025-05-12

HERZ ROBERT H

Director

$95,459

@ $119.32 · 2025-05-02

SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL

President

$4.80M

@ $120.00 · 2025-05-02

GROSSMAN ERIC F

Officer

$1.12M

@ $111.65 · 2025-04-15

CRAWLEY MANDELL L.

Officer

$1.15M

@ $138.06 · 2025-01-22

SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A

President

$5.00M

@ $136.61 · 2025-01-21

AKRAM RAJA

Chief Financial Officer

$2.38M

@ $136.01 · 2025-01-21

GROSSMAN ERIC F

Officer

$1.78M

@ $136.20 · 2025-01-21

PIZZI MICHAEL A

Officer

$2.52M

@ $136.92 · 2025-01-21

SAPERSTEIN ANDREW MICHAEL

President

$4.20M

@ $136.43 · 2025-01-21

CRAWLEY MANDELL L.

Officer

$368,375

@ $105.25 · 2024-07-26

AKRAM RAJA

Officer

$797,764

@ $106.37 · 2024-07-18

SIMKOWITZ DANIEL A

President

$4.26M

@ $106.54 · 2024-07-17

HERZ ROBERT H

Director

$106,621

@ $106.62 · 2024-07-17

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

NOC

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $26.77M

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$54,310

@ $571.68 · 2026-05-04

SIMPSON KATHRYN G.

General Counsel

$650,385

@ $745.00 · 2026-03-02

ROEDER ROSHAN S.

Officer

$1.26M

@ $720.00 · 2026-02-27

HARDESTY MICHAEL A

Officer

$107,748

@ $732.98 · 2026-02-19

ROEDER ROSHAN S.

Officer

$372,541

@ $727.62 · 2026-02-19

SIMPSON KATHRYN G.

General Counsel

$141,158

@ $727.62 · 2026-02-19

DAVIES BENJAMIN R

Officer

$1.58M

@ $719.62 · 2026-02-18

HARDESTY MICHAEL A

Officer

$501,609

@ $701.55 · 2026-02-17

ROEDER ROSHAN S.

Officer

$223,414

@ $702.56 · 2026-02-17

SIMPSON KATHRYN G.

General Counsel

$547,294

@ $702.56 · 2026-02-17

HARDESTY MICHAEL A

Officer

$550,411

@ $702.95 · 2026-02-13

WARDEN KATHY J

Chief Executive Officer

$14.18M

@ $708.82 · 2026-02-06

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$65,029

@ $684.52 · 2026-02-02

WARDEN KATHY J

Chief Executive Officer

$6.04M

@ $604.50 · 2026-01-06

ROEDER ROSHAN S.

Officer

$46,649

@ $555.35 · 2025-12-09

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$54,716

@ $564.08 · 2025-11-24

JONES THOMAS H.

Officer

$382,725

@ $525.00 · 2025-07-17

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$16,720

@ $506.67 · 2025-07-07

WARDEN KATHY J

Chief Executive Officer

$5.65M

@ $502.18 · 2025-06-13

JONES THOMAS H.

Officer

$368,706

@ $505.77 · 2025-06-13

FLEMING ROBERT J

Officer

$1.77M

@ $505.77 · 2025-06-13

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$16,120

@ $488.48 · 2025-06-05

ROEDER ROSHAN S.

Officer

$485,590

@ $490.00 · 2025-06-04

JONES THOMAS H.

Officer

$349,920

@ $480.00 · 2025-05-30

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$16,293

@ $493.73 · 2025-05-05

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$15,850

@ $480.30 · 2025-04-07

WARDEN KATHY J

Chief Executive Officer

$1.78M

@ $475.65 · 2025-03-06

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$15,631

@ $473.67 · 2025-03-05

DAVIES BENJAMIN R

Officer

$213,788

@ $460.75 · 2025-02-28

HARDESTY MICHAEL A

Officer

$875,873

@ $453.59 · 2025-02-24

SIMPSON KATHRYN G.

General Counsel

$444,098

@ $429.08 · 2025-02-20

DAVIES BENJAMIN R

Officer

$82,383

@ $429.08 · 2025-02-20

SIMPSON KATHRYN G.

General Counsel

$395,916

@ $445.35 · 2025-02-18

DAVIES BENJAMIN R

Officer

$130,488

@ $445.35 · 2025-02-18

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$15,843

@ $480.09 · 2025-02-05

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$15,072

@ $456.73 · 2025-01-06

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$15,886

@ $481.39 · 2024-12-05

DAVIES BENJAMIN R

Officer

$616,067

@ $532.93 · 2024-11-11

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$16,833

@ $510.09 · 2024-11-05

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$17,675

@ $535.61 · 2024-10-07

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$17,151

@ $519.73 · 2024-09-05

WELSH MARK A. III

Director

$17,546

@ $516.06 · 2024-08-29

JONES THOMAS H.

Officer

$695,000

@ $500.00 · 2024-08-02

JONES THOMAS H.

Officer

$1.30M

@ $469.25 · 2024-07-26

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

Learn more →

😏Greed(70/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

NOC

😨Fear(36/100)

"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

Learn more →

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (70)

NOC

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (36)

View MS Full Analysis View NOC Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: MS vs NOC

Is Morgan Stanley or Northrop Grumman Corporation more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, MS trades at a 25.0% margin of safety (intrinsic value $298 vs. price $223), compared to NOC's 1.8% margin of safety (intrinsic $531 vs. $522).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Morgan Stanley or Northrop Grumman Corporation?▼

MS scores 80/100 (Wide moat), while NOC scores 68/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is Morgan Stanley in financial distress?▼

MS's Altman Z-Score of 0.3 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. NOC scores 3.0 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Morgan Stanley or Northrop Grumman Corporation?▼

NOC earns 11.3% ROIC versus MS's 3.4%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Morgan Stanley's or Northrop Grumman Corporation's?▼

NOC's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to MS's 79/100 (Safe). NOC has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.