Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) vs Union Pacific Corporation (UNP): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-09-17, MRK is undervalued at $145, with a DCF intrinsic value of $596 and a margin of safety of 76%. UNP is overvalued at $281, with an intrinsic value of $220 and a margin of safety of -28%. Of the two, MRK has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Gross margin of 75.9% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $4.94 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
- ★Management has timed buybacks well — 2 out of 3 years showed value-accretive repurchases.
- ★Union Pacific Corporation has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
- ★Union Pacific Corporation scores 80/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with margin stability as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
Risks
- ⚠PEG ratio of 2.65 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
- ⚠7 insider sales totaling $30.0M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
- ⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 5.6% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.
- ⚠Each dollar of retained earnings has produced only $0.15 of earning power — shareholders may have been better served by dividends.
- ⚠FCF yield of 2.8% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
- ⚠PEG ratio of 2.83 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $145?
The market implies +7.9% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.
Standard FCF implies a more demanding +11.6%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $281?
The market implies +12.0% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +17.6%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.
Wide moat driven primarily by margin stability. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: MRK vs UNP
Is Merck & Co., Inc. or Union Pacific Corporation more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, MRK trades at a 75.7% margin of safety (intrinsic value $596 vs. price $145), compared to UNP's -27.6% margin of safety (intrinsic $220 vs. $281).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Merck & Co., Inc. or Union Pacific Corporation?▼
UNP scores 80/100 (Wide moat), while MRK scores 68/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Which company has better free cash flow, Merck & Co., Inc. or Union Pacific Corporation?▼
Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) generates a 4.2% free cash flow yield, compared to Union Pacific Corporation's 2.8%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Merck & Co., Inc. or Union Pacific Corporation?▼
UNP earns 15.9% ROIC versus MRK's -0.1%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, Merck & Co., Inc.'s or Union Pacific Corporation's?▼
UNP's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to MRK's 79/100 (Safe). UNP has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.