Chevron Corporation (CVX) vs Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-11-01, CVX is overvalued at $236, with a DCF intrinsic value of $148 and a margin of safety of -60%. MRK is undervalued at $150, with an intrinsic value of $596 and a margin of safety of 75%. Of the two, MRK has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Gross margin of 76.9% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $4.94 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
- ★Management has timed buybacks well — 2 out of 3 years showed value-accretive repurchases.
Risks
- ⚠ROIC has declined by 11.0 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
- ⚠Buybacks have been poorly timed — 3 out of 4 years involved repurchases at relatively expensive valuations.
- ⚠5 insider sales totaling $80.5M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
- ⚠PEG ratio of 2.82 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
- ⚠7 insider sales totaling $30.0M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
- ⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 5.6% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.
Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving roic consistency would strengthen the moat.
Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"
"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: CVX vs MRK
Is Chevron Corporation or Merck & Co., Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, MRK trades at a 74.9% margin of safety (intrinsic value $596 vs. price $150), compared to CVX's -59.5% margin of safety (intrinsic $148 vs. $236).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Chevron Corporation or Merck & Co., Inc.?▼
MRK scores 68/100 (Narrow moat), while CVX scores 43/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Chevron Corporation or Merck & Co., Inc.?▼
MRK earns 22.9% ROIC versus CVX's 13.8%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, Chevron Corporation's or Merck & Co., Inc.'s?▼
MRK's dividend earns a safety score of 79/100 (Safe), compared to CVX's 30/100 (Unsafe). MRK has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.