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Compare Stocks › MPC vs VLO

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) vs Valero Energy Corporation (VLO): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-06-19, MPC is fairly valued at $243, with a DCF intrinsic value of $292 and a margin of safety of 17%. VLO is undervalued at $236, with an intrinsic value of $376 and a margin of safety of 37%. Of the two, VLO has the wider margin of safety.

MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corporation
$242.91
VS
VLO
Valero Energy Corporation
$236.30

Rewards

MPC
  • ★Share count has been reduced by 35% over the past 4 years through buybacks, increasing each share's claim on earnings.
VLO
  • ★Share count has been reduced by 20% over the past 4 years through buybacks, increasing each share's claim on earnings.
  • ★Altman Z-Score of 4.64 indicates very low bankruptcy risk — the company is firmly in the safe zone.

Risks

MPC
  • ⚠ROIC has declined by 17.3 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
  • ⚠Gross margin of 10.7% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
  • ⚠Buybacks have been poorly timed — 3 out of 4 years involved repurchases at relatively expensive valuations.
VLO
  • ⚠ROIC has declined by 24.6 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
  • ⚠Gross margin of 14.6% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
  • ⚠FCF yield of 6.8% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.

Key Valuation Metrics

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MPC
VLO
Valuation
$4.77B
Free Cash Flow
$4.79B
6.72%
FCF Yield
6.82%
16.00
Trailing P/E
17.25
10.00
Forward P/E
11.06
Quality & Moat
6.61%
ROIC
14.66%
27.46%
ROE
15.85%
10.74%
Gross Margin
14.56%
1.24
PEG Ratio
4.08
Balance Sheet Safety
1.37
Net Debt / Equity
0.21
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
3.14
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.63
1.60%
Dividend Yield
1.97%
MPC: 4Ties: 3VLO: 5
MPCVLO

Historical Fundamentals

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MPC

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

VLO

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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MPC
$-0.36
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Market Cap Declined
Σ Retained
$13.62B
Δ Market Cap
$-4.93B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
VLO
$0.15
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Value Destroyer
Σ Retained
$9.71B
Δ Market Cap
+$1.46B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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MPC
138.1% Overvalued
Price is 138.1% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $242.91
Fair Value: $102.01
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
VLO
5.8% Overvalued
Price is 5.8% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $236.30
Fair Value: $223.44
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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MPC

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $243?

+11.0%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +8.8%

The market implies +11.0% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +8.8%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

VLO

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $236?

+4.8%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +4.5%

The market implies +4.8% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +4.5%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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MPC
54/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with roic consistency as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
VLO
46/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with reinvestment efficiency as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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MPC
-2.87
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
VLO
-2.93
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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MPC
Insiders 0.3%Institutions 78.5%Retail & Other 21.2%
No. of Institutional Holders2,342
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
VLO
Insiders 0.4%Institutions 87.9%Retail & Other 11.7%
No. of Institutional Holders2,367
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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MPC
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
HESSLING RICKY D.
Officer
$269,440
@ $134.72 · 2025-03-11
BAYH B EVAN III
Director
$133,700
@ $133.70 · 2025-03-05
CAMPBELL JEFFREY C
Director
$897,644
@ $149.61 · 2024-12-04
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
VLO
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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MPC
2
Sells (3M)
7
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $7.11M
HENSCHEN MICHAEL A II
Officer
$1.70M
@ $268.82 · 2026-06-04
HESSLING RICKY D.
Officer
$250,000
@ $250.00 · 2026-05-13
HESSLING RICKY D.
Officer
$371,021
@ $228.18 · 2026-03-13
HESSLING RICKY D.
Officer
$644,401
@ $226.34 · 2026-03-12
HENSCHEN MICHAEL A II
Officer
$1.07M
@ $202.32 · 2026-02-12
BENSON MOLLY R.
Officer
$1.77M
@ $163.00 · 2025-08-15
RUCKER KIM K. W.
Director
$1.29M
@ $175.00 · 2025-07-03
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
VLO
1
Sells (3M)
2
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $3.62M
FISHER ERIC A
Officer
$1.89M
@ $251.61 · 2026-05-18
FRASER JASON W.
Chief Financial Officer
$1.73M
@ $174.02 · 2025-11-21
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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MPC
FearGreed
😐Neutral(56/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
VLO
FearGreed
😐Neutral(55/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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MPC
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (56)
VLO
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (55)
View MPC Full AnalysisView VLO Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: MPC vs VLO

Is Marathon Petroleum Corporation or Valero Energy Corporation more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, VLO trades at a 37.1% margin of safety (intrinsic value $376 vs. price $236), compared to MPC's 16.9% margin of safety (intrinsic $292 vs. $243).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Marathon Petroleum Corporation or Valero Energy Corporation?▼

MPC scores 54/100 (Narrow moat), while VLO scores 46/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Which company has better free cash flow, Marathon Petroleum Corporation or Valero Energy Corporation?▼

Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) generates a 6.8% free cash flow yield, compared to Marathon Petroleum Corporation's 6.7%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Marathon Petroleum Corporation or Valero Energy Corporation?▼

VLO earns 14.7% ROIC versus MPC's 6.6%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Marathon Petroleum Corporation's or Valero Energy Corporation's?▼

MPC's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to VLO's 84/100 (Very Safe). MPC has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.