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Compare Stocks › MPC vs UNH

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) vs UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)

MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corporation
$246.15
VS
UNH
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
$368.78

Rewards

MPC
  • ★Share count has been reduced by 35% over the past 4 years through buybacks, increasing each share's claim on earnings.
  • ★PEG ratio of 0.05 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate — paying less than 1x for each unit of earnings growth.
UNH
  • ★Dividend yield of 2.40% with a consistent or growing payout over the past 4 years.

Risks

MPC
  • ⚠ROIC has declined by 18.1 percentage points over the observed period, which may signal competitive erosion.
  • ⚠Gross margin of 10.3% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
  • ⚠Buybacks have been poorly timed — 3 out of 4 years involved repurchases at relatively expensive valuations.
UNH
  • ⚠ROIC has declined by 7.9 percentage points over the observed period, which may signal competitive erosion.
  • ⚠Gross margin of 18.8% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
  • ⚠FCF yield of 5.3% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.

Key Valuation Metrics

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MPC
UNH
Valuation
$4.77B
Free Cash Flow
$17.69B
6.58%
FCF Yield
5.28%
18.62
Trailing P/E
27.85
11.98
Forward P/E
17.77
Quality & Moat
11.32%
ROIC
15.60%
16.80%
ROE
11.45%
10.31%
Gross Margin
18.80%
0.05
PEG Ratio
39.79
Balance Sheet Safety
1.43
Debt / Equity
0.74
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
3.24
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.18
1.59%
Dividend Yield
2.40%
MPC: 5Ties: 1UNH: 6
MPCUNH

Historical Fundamentals

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MPC

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

UNH

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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MPC
$-0.36
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Market Cap Declined
Σ Retained
$13.62B
Δ Market Cap
$-4.93B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
UNH
$-7.37
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Market Cap Declined
Σ Retained
$26.63B
Δ Market Cap
$-196.16B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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MPC
131.8% Overvalued
Price is 131.8% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $246.15
Fair Value: $106.18
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
UNH
9.6% Overvalued
Price is 9.6% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $368.78
Fair Value: $336.33
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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MPC

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $246?

+11.0%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +8.8%

The market implies +11.0% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +8.8%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

UNH

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $369?

+13.9%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +8.7%

The market implies +13.9% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +8.7%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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MPC
35/100
No Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

No durable moat detected, though reinvestment efficiency shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
UNH
64/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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MPC
-2.87
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
UNH
-2.45
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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MPC
Insiders 0.3%Institutions 77.2%Retail & Other 22.4%
No. of Institutional Holders2,210
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
UNH
Insiders 0.8%Institutions 84.7%Retail & Other 14.5%
No. of Institutional Holders4,077
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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MPC
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
HESSLING RICKY D.
Officer
$269,440
@ $134.72 · 2025-03-11
BAYH B EVAN III
Director
$133,700
@ $133.70 · 2025-03-05
CAMPBELL JEFFREY C
Director
$897,644
@ $149.61 · 2024-12-04
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
UNH
0
Buys (3M)
5
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $31.61M
HEMSLEY STEPHEN J
Chief Executive Officer
$25.02M
@ $288.57 · 2025-05-16
REX JOHN F
President
$5.00M
@ $291.12 · 2025-05-16
GIL KRISTEN
Director
$1.00M
@ $271.17 · 2025-05-15
NOSEWORTHY JOHN H
Director
$93,647
@ $312.16 · 2025-05-14
FLYNN TIMOTHY PATRICK
Director
$491,786
@ $320.80 · 2025-05-14
FLYNN TIMOTHY PATRICK
Director
$511,575
@ $511.57 · 2025-01-17
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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MPC
3
Sells (3M)
5
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $5.15M
HESSLING RICKY D.
Officer
$371,021
@ $228.18 · 2026-03-13
HESSLING RICKY D.
Officer
$644,401
@ $226.34 · 2026-03-12
HENSCHEN MICHAEL A II
Officer
$1.07M
@ $202.32 · 2026-02-12
BENSON MOLLY R.
Officer
$1.77M
@ $163.00 · 2025-08-15
RUCKER KIM K. W.
Director
$1.29M
@ $175.00 · 2025-07-03
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
UNH
1
Sells (3M)
2
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $463,645
CONWAY PATRICK HUGH M.D.
Officer
$284,000
@ $355.00 · 2026-04-23
CONWAY PATRICK HUGH M.D.
Chief Executive Officer
$179,645
@ $305.00 · 2025-06-10
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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MPC
FearGreed
😏Greed(66/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
UNH
FearGreed
😏Greed(65/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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MPC
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (66)
UNH
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (65)
View MPC Full AnalysisView UNH Full Analysis
MPC vs UNH: Which Is the Better Buy? | SafetyMargin.io