SafetyMargin.ioSafetyMargin.io
BlogWatchlistCompare
Compare Stocks › MPC vs PFE

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) vs Pfizer, Inc. (PFE): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-08-03, MPC is fairly valued at $316, with a DCF intrinsic value of $292 and a margin of safety of -8%. PFE is undervalued at $25, with an intrinsic value of $127985960274 and a margin of safety of 100%. Of the two, PFE has the wider margin of safety.

MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corporation
$316.47
VS
PFE
Pfizer, Inc.
$25.01

Rewards

MPC
  • ★Share count has been reduced by 35% over the past 4 years through buybacks, increasing each share's claim on earnings.
PFE
  • ★Gross margin of 74.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Trailing P/E of 19.1x is 37% below the historical average of 30.4x — potentially undervalued relative to its own history.

Risks

MPC
  • ⚠ROIC has declined by 17.3 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
  • ⚠Gross margin of 10.7% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
  • ⚠Buybacks have been poorly timed — 3 out of 4 years involved repurchases at relatively expensive valuations.
PFE
  • ⚠ROIC has declined by 15.9 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
  • ⚠PEG ratio of 2.94 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
  • ⚠Altman Z-Score of 1.38 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.

Key Valuation Metrics

Learn more →
MPC
PFE
Valuation
$4.77B
Free Cash Flow
$12.38B
5.16%
FCF Yield
N/A
20.83
Trailing P/E
19.09
11.40
Forward P/E
8.85
Quality & Moat
6.61%
ROIC
10.19%
27.46%
ROE
8.31%
10.74%
Gross Margin
74.80%
1.57
PEG Ratio
2.94
Balance Sheet Safety
1.37
Net Debt / Equity
0.57
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
3.14
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.03
1.26%
Dividend Yield
6.88%
MPC: 2Ties: 1PFE: 8
MPCPFE

Historical Fundamentals

Learn more →
MPC

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

PFE

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

Learn more →
MPC
$-0.36
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Market Cap Declined
Σ Retained
$13.62B
Δ Market Cap
$-4.93B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
PFE
N/A
Net losses over 3 years — test not applicable
Company had negative cumulative retained earnings
Σ Retained
$-10.61B
Δ Market Cap
$-26.34
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

Learn more →
MPC
210.2% Overvalued
Price is 210.2% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $316.47
Fair Value: $102.01
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
PFE
100.0% Margin of Safety
Price is 100.0% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $25.01
Fair Value: $127985960274.09
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

Learn more →
MPC

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $316?

+13.6%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +11.3%

The market implies +13.6% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +11.3%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

PFE

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $25?

-14.2%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies -15.0%

The market implies -14.2% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding -15.0%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

Learn more →
MPC
54/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with roic consistency as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
PFE
35/100
No Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

No durable moat detected, though reinvestment efficiency shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

Learn more →
MPC
-2.87
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
PFE
-2.53
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

Learn more →
MPC
Insiders 0.3%Institutions 78.4%Retail & Other 21.3%
No. of Institutional Holders2,362
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
PFE
Insiders 0.1%Institutions 69.5%Retail & Other 30.4%
No. of Institutional Holders3,661
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

Learn more →
MPC
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
HESSLING RICKY D.
Officer
$269,440
@ $134.72 · 2025-03-11
BAYH B EVAN III
Director
$133,700
@ $133.70 · 2025-03-05
CAMPBELL JEFFREY C
Director
$897,644
@ $149.61 · 2024-12-04
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
PFE
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
BLAYLOCK RONALD E
Director
$499,072
@ $25.65 · 2025-02-13
GOTTLIEB SCOTT
Director
$28,240
@ $28.24 · 2024-10-30
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

Learn more →
MPC
2
Sells (3M)
6
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $5.81M
HENSCHEN MICHAEL A II
Officer
$1.70M
@ $268.82 · 2026-06-04
HESSLING RICKY D.
Officer
$250,000
@ $250.00 · 2026-05-13
HESSLING RICKY D.
Officer
$371,021
@ $228.18 · 2026-03-13
HESSLING RICKY D.
Officer
$644,401
@ $226.34 · 2026-03-12
HENSCHEN MICHAEL A II
Officer
$1.07M
@ $202.32 · 2026-02-12
BENSON MOLLY R.
Officer
$1.77M
@ $163.00 · 2025-08-15
RUCKER KIM K. W.
Director
$1.29M
@ $175.00 · 2025-07-03
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
PFE
1
Sells (3M)
1
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $51,400
DAMICO JENNIFER B.
Officer
$51,400
@ $25.70 · 2026-06-09
DAMICO JENNIFER B.
Officer
$64,825
@ $25.93 · 2025-03-04
DAMICO JENNIFER B.
Officer
$147,714
@ $28.66 · 2024-08-13
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

Learn more →
MPC
FearGreed
😏Greed(68/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
PFE
FearGreed
😐Neutral(52/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

Learn more →
MPC
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (68)
PFE
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (52)
View MPC Full AnalysisView PFE Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: MPC vs PFE

Is Marathon Petroleum Corporation or Pfizer, Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, PFE trades at a 100.0% margin of safety (intrinsic value $127985960274 vs. price $25), compared to MPC's -8.3% margin of safety (intrinsic $292 vs. $316).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Marathon Petroleum Corporation or Pfizer, Inc.?▼

MPC scores 54/100 (Narrow moat), while PFE scores 35/100 (None moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is Pfizer, Inc. in financial distress?▼

PFE's Altman Z-Score of 1.4 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. MPC scores 3.0 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Marathon Petroleum Corporation or Pfizer, Inc.?▼

PFE earns 10.2% ROIC versus MPC's 6.6%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Marathon Petroleum Corporation's or Pfizer, Inc.'s?▼

MPC's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to PFE's 24/100 (Unsafe). MPC has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.