Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) vs Oracle Corporation (ORCL): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-06-19, MPC is fairly valued at $243, with a DCF intrinsic value of $292 and a margin of safety of 17%. ORCL is undervalued at $184, with an intrinsic value of $285 and a margin of safety of 35%. Of the two, ORCL has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Share count has been reduced by 35% over the past 4 years through buybacks, increasing each share's claim on earnings.
- ★Oracle Corporation has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
- ★Gross margin of 65.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 3 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
Risks
- ⚠ROIC has declined by 17.3 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
- ⚠Gross margin of 10.7% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
- ⚠Buybacks have been poorly timed — 3 out of 4 years involved repurchases at relatively expensive valuations.
- ⚠Despite buyback spending, shares outstanding increased in 3 out of 4 years — stock-based compensation is offsetting repurchases.
- ⚠High leverage (2.89x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
- ⚠Insiders have sold $2.6M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $243?
The market implies +11.0% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +8.8%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Narrow moat with roic consistency as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.
Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving reinvestment efficiency would strengthen the moat.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: MPC vs ORCL
Is Marathon Petroleum Corporation or Oracle Corporation more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, ORCL trades at a 35.4% margin of safety (intrinsic value $285 vs. price $184), compared to MPC's 16.9% margin of safety (intrinsic $292 vs. $243).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Marathon Petroleum Corporation or Oracle Corporation?▼
ORCL scores 68/100 (Narrow moat), while MPC scores 54/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Is Oracle Corporation in financial distress?▼
ORCL's Altman Z-Score of 2.7 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. MPC scores 3.0 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.
Which company has better free cash flow, Marathon Petroleum Corporation or Oracle Corporation?▼
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) generates a 6.7% free cash flow yield, compared to Oracle Corporation's -3.8%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Marathon Petroleum Corporation or Oracle Corporation?▼
ORCL earns 9.7% ROIC versus MPC's 6.6%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, Marathon Petroleum Corporation's or Oracle Corporation's?▼
MPC's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to ORCL's 79/100 (Safe). MPC has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.