Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) vs Microsoft Corporation (MSFT): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-06-19, MPC is fairly valued at $243, with a DCF intrinsic value of $292 and a margin of safety of 17%. MSFT is fairly valued at $379, with an intrinsic value of $440 and a margin of safety of 14%. Of the two, MPC has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Share count has been reduced by 35% over the past 4 years through buybacks, increasing each share's claim on earnings.
- ★Microsoft Corporation has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★Gross margin of 68.3% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Microsoft Corporation scores 88/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
Risks
- ⚠ROIC has declined by 17.3 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
- ⚠Gross margin of 10.7% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
- ⚠Buybacks have been poorly timed — 3 out of 4 years involved repurchases at relatively expensive valuations.
- ⚠FCF yield of 2.5% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
- ⚠Insiders have sold $10.5M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $243?
The market implies +11.0% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.
Standard FCF implies a demanding +8.8%, reflecting heavy growth investment.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $379?
The market implies +12.4% Owner Earnings growth, roughly in line with history — reasonably priced.
Standard FCF implies +17.1%, reflecting ongoing growth investment.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Narrow moat with roic consistency as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.
Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: MPC vs MSFT
Is Marathon Petroleum Corporation or Microsoft Corporation more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, MPC trades at a 16.9% margin of safety (intrinsic value $292 vs. price $243), compared to MSFT's 13.7% margin of safety (intrinsic $440 vs. $379).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Marathon Petroleum Corporation or Microsoft Corporation?▼
MSFT scores 88/100 (Wide moat), while MPC scores 54/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Which company has better free cash flow, Marathon Petroleum Corporation or Microsoft Corporation?▼
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) generates a 6.7% free cash flow yield, compared to Microsoft Corporation's 2.5%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Marathon Petroleum Corporation or Microsoft Corporation?▼
MSFT earns 21.6% ROIC versus MPC's 6.6%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, Marathon Petroleum Corporation's or Microsoft Corporation's?▼
MSFT's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to MPC's 94/100 (Very Safe). MSFT has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.