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The Mosaic Company (MOS) vs UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-06-19, MOS is undervalued at $23, with a DCF intrinsic value of $108 and a margin of safety of 79%. UNH is fairly valued at $401, with an intrinsic value of $376 and a margin of safety of -7%. Of the two, MOS has the wider margin of safety.

MOS
The Mosaic Company
$22.90
VS
UNH
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
$400.96

Rewards

MOS
    UNH
    • ★UnitedHealth Group Incorporated scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.

    Risks

    MOS
    • ⚠ROIC has declined by 19.3 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
    • ⚠Gross margin of 13.3% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
    • ⚠The Mosaic Company scores only 15/100 on the Economic Moat Score, suggesting limited durable competitive advantages.
    UNH
    • ⚠ROIC has declined by 6.9 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
    • ⚠Gross margin of 18.8% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
    • ⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 11.8% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.

    Key Valuation Metrics

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    MOS
    UNH
    Valuation
    $-289.79M
    Free Cash Flow
    $17.69B
    -3.98%
    FCF Yield
    4.86%
    163.57
    Trailing P/E
    30.17
    12.48
    Forward P/E
    19.18
    Quality & Moat
    0.44%
    ROIC
    15.60%
    0.59%
    ROE
    12.18%
    13.31%
    Gross Margin
    18.80%
    2.02
    PEG Ratio
    1.41
    Balance Sheet Safety
    0.46
    Net Debt / Equity
    0.44
    N/A
    Interest Coverage
    N/A
    2.75
    Net Debt / EBITDA
    2.18
    4.06%
    Dividend Yield
    2.21%
    MOS: 2Ties: 2UNH: 8
    MOSUNH

    Historical Fundamentals

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    MOS

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    UNH

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    $1 Retained Earnings Test

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    MOS
    $-7.39
    created per $1 retained over 3 years
    Market Cap Declined
    Σ Retained
    $977.8M
    Δ Market Cap
    $-7.23B
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
    UNH
    $-7.37
    created per $1 retained over 3 years
    Market Cap Declined
    Σ Retained
    $26.63B
    Δ Market Cap
    $-196.16B
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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    MOS
    78.9% Margin of Safety
    Price is 78.9% below estimated fair value
    Current Price: $22.90
    Fair Value: $108.48
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued
    UNH
    6.6% Overvalued
    Price is 6.6% above estimated fair value
    Current Price: $400.96
    Fair Value: $376.14
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued

    Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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    MOS

    Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.

    UNH

    What growth rate is the market pricing in at $401?

    +14.1%
    Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
    Standard FCF implies +9.8%

    The market implies +14.1% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

    Standard FCF implies a demanding +9.8%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

    Economic Moat Score

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    MOS
    15/100
    No Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    No durable moat detected, though reinvestment efficiency shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
    UNH
    73/100
    Wide Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

    Forensic Accounting

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    MOS
    -2.70
    Unlikely Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
    UNH
    -2.45
    Unlikely Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Ownership Breakdown

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    MOS
    Insiders 0.3%Institutions 94.3%Retail & Other 5.4%
    No. of Institutional Holders983
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
    UNH
    Insiders 0.2%Institutions 85.9%Retail & Other 13.8%
    No. of Institutional Holders4,020
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    Insider Buying Activity

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    MOS
    0
    Buys (3M)
    1
    Buys (12M)
    Total value (12M): $17,488
    KUZENKO JODY LYNNE MARY
    Director
    $17,488
    @ $25.53 · 2025-11-11
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
    UNH
    0
    Buys (3M)
    0
    Buys (12M)
    HEMSLEY STEPHEN J
    Chief Executive Officer
    $25.02M
    @ $288.57 · 2025-05-16
    REX JOHN F
    President
    $5.00M
    @ $291.12 · 2025-05-16
    GIL KRISTEN
    Director
    $1.00M
    @ $271.17 · 2025-05-15
    FLYNN TIMOTHY PATRICK
    Director
    $491,786
    @ $320.80 · 2025-05-14
    NOSEWORTHY JOHN H
    Director
    $93,647
    @ $312.16 · 2025-05-14
    FLYNN TIMOTHY PATRICK
    Director
    $511,575
    @ $511.57 · 2025-01-17
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

    Insider Selling Activity

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    MOS
    0
    Sells (3M)
    0
    Sells (12M)
    PRECOURT WALTER F. III
    Officer
    $643,140
    @ $35.73 · 2025-05-29
    BODINE BRUCE M
    Chief Executive Officer
    $5.70M
    @ $31.56 · 2025-05-08
    PRECOURT WALTER F. III
    Officer
    $1.11M
    @ $27.96 · 2024-08-13
    WESTBROOK KELVIN R
    Director
    $346,042
    @ $27.32 · 2024-08-12
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
    UNH
    1
    Sells (3M)
    1
    Sells (12M)
    Total value (12M): $284,000
    CONWAY PATRICK HUGH M.D.
    Officer
    $284,000
    @ $355.00 · 2026-04-23
    CONWAY PATRICK HUGH M.D.
    Chief Executive Officer
    $179,645
    @ $305.00 · 2025-06-10
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

    🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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    MOS
    FearGreed
    😨Fear(33/100)

    "Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
    UNH
    FearGreed
    😏Greed(68/100)

    "Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    ⚖️ Buffett Signal

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    MOS
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (33)
    UNH
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (68)
    View MOS Full AnalysisView UNH Full Analysis

    Frequently Asked Questions: MOS vs UNH

    Is The Mosaic Company or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated more undervalued in 2026?▼

    Based on our discounted cash flow model, MOS trades at a 78.9% margin of safety (intrinsic value $108 vs. price $23), compared to UNH's -6.6% margin of safety (intrinsic $376 vs. $401).

    Which stock has a wider economic moat, The Mosaic Company or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated?▼

    UNH scores 73/100 (Wide moat), while MOS scores 15/100 (None moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

    Is The Mosaic Company in financial distress?▼

    MOS's Altman Z-Score of 1.9 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. UNH scores 2.9 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

    Which company has better free cash flow, The Mosaic Company or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated?▼

    UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) generates a 4.9% free cash flow yield, compared to The Mosaic Company's -4.0%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

    Which stock has higher return on invested capital, The Mosaic Company or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated?▼

    UNH earns 15.6% ROIC versus MOS's 0.4%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

    Which dividend is safer, The Mosaic Company's or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's?▼

    UNH's dividend earns a safety score of 84/100 (Very Safe), compared to MOS's 63/100 (Safe). UNH has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.