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Compare Stocks › LLY vs META

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) vs Meta Platforms, Inc. (META): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-09-17, LLY is undervalued at $1152, with a DCF intrinsic value of $1598 and a margin of safety of 28%. META is fairly valued at $682, with an intrinsic value of $647 and a margin of safety of -5%. Of the two, LLY has the wider margin of safety.

LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
$1152.44
VS
META
Meta Platforms, Inc.
$682.31

Rewards

LLY
  • ★Eli Lilly and Company has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Gross margin of 83.4% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Eli Lilly and Company scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
META
  • ★Meta Platforms, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Gross margin of 81.7% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Meta Platforms, Inc. scores 80/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.

Risks

LLY
  • ⚠FCF yield of 1.1% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
  • ⚠Insiders have sold $10.0M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
META
  • ⚠Buybacks have been poorly timed — 3 out of 4 years involved repurchases at relatively expensive valuations.
  • ⚠FCF yield of 2.7% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
  • ⚠5 insider sales totaling $7.8M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.

Key Valuation Metrics

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LLY
META
Valuation
$11.07B
Free Cash Flow
$46.11B
1.08%
FCF Yield
2.65%
38.66
Trailing P/E
25.72
24.36
Forward P/E
19.52
Quality & Moat
38.43%
ROIC
16.81%
102.29%
ROE
29.85%
83.40%
Gross Margin
81.75%
1.12
PEG Ratio
0.89
Balance Sheet Safety
1.36
Net Debt / Equity
0.08
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
1.10
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.20
0.61%
Dividend Yield
0.31%
LLY: 3Ties: 2META: 7
LLYMETA

Historical Fundamentals

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LLY

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

META

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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LLY
$27.49
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$22.34B
Δ Market Cap
+$614.01B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
META
$8.94
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$151.52B
Δ Market Cap
+$1.36T
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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LLY
27.9% Margin of Safety
Price is 27.9% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $1152.44
Fair Value: $1597.97
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
META
5.4% Overvalued
Price is 5.4% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $682.31
Fair Value: $647.29
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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LLY

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $1152?

+20.8%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +29.5%

The market implies +20.8% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding +29.5%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

META

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $682?

+12.8%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +16.5%

The market implies +12.8% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding +16.5%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

Economic Moat Score

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LLY
73/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.
META
80/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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LLY
-1.83
Possible Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
META
-3.04
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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LLY
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 85.3%Retail & Other 14.5%
No. of Institutional Holders5,890
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
META
Insiders 0.1%Institutions 79.0%Retail & Other 20.8%
No. of Institutional Holders6,609
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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LLY
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
MONTARCE LUCAS E
Chief Financial Officer
$494,627
@ $691.79 · 2025-08-15
ALVAREZ RALPH
Director
$500,473
@ $660.25 · 2025-08-13
VAN NAARDEN JACOB S.
Officer
$647,360
@ $647.36 · 2025-08-13
FYRWALD J. ERIK
Director
$1.01M
@ $642.33 · 2025-08-12
RICKS DAVID A
Chief Executive Officer
$1.05M
@ $644.77 · 2025-08-12
SKOVRONSKY DANIEL
Officer
$634,405
@ $634.40 · 2025-08-12
SULZBERGER GABRIELLE
Director
$75,018
@ $641.18 · 2025-08-12
JACKSON JAMERE
Director
$127,913
@ $639.57 · 2025-08-08
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
META
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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LLY
2
Sells (3M)
40
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $3.64B
JONSSON PATRIK
Officer
$7.64M
@ $1175.10 · 2026-08-17
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$2.37M
@ $1185.01 · 2026-08-10
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$2.88M
@ $1150.77 · 2026-06-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$15.75M
@ $995.36 · 2026-05-06
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$322.38M
@ $1103.48 · 2026-01-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$1.51M
@ $1085.01 · 2026-01-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.90M
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-29
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$2.85M
@ $1085.17 · 2025-12-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260,409
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-23
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.08M
@ $1095.35 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$17.34M
@ $1109.30 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$152.06M
@ $1068.52 · 2025-11-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$111.50M
@ $1058.66 · 2025-11-21
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$39.07M
@ $1051.66 · 2025-11-20
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$176.10M
@ $1051.17 · 2025-11-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$62.31M
@ $1034.78 · 2025-11-18
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$10.19M
@ $1030.68 · 2025-11-17
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$183.80M
@ $1030.87 · 2025-11-14
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$48.02M
@ $1030.26 · 2025-11-13
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$1.01M
@ $1010.50 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$308.41M
@ $1011.18 · 2025-11-12
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$279.35M
@ $986.64 · 2025-11-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$16.41M
@ $972.52 · 2025-11-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$167.09M
@ $933.26 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$38.47M
@ $951.56 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$479,038
@ $910.72 · 2025-11-04
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$266.65M
@ $888.83 · 2025-11-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260.17M
@ $863.35 · 2025-10-31
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.16M
@ $863.24 · 2025-10-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$9.04M
@ $852.49 · 2025-10-09
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.23M
@ $850.27 · 2025-10-08
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$22.72M
@ $848.01 · 2025-10-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$137.04M
@ $850.22 · 2025-10-06
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.22M
@ $837.93 · 2025-10-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$92.50M
@ $821.55 · 2025-10-02
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$107.36M
@ $794.15 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$177.29M
@ $821.47 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.79M
@ $763.39 · 2025-09-30
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$18.06M
@ $763.09 · 2025-09-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$81.53M
@ $764.65 · 2025-09-18
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$734,930
@ $734.93 · 2025-08-28
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$783,762
@ $627.01 · 2025-08-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$225.42M
@ $805.07 · 2025-07-24
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
META
5
Sells (3M)
47
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $43.41M
ANDERSON AARON
Officer
$2.00M
@ $618.06 · 2026-09-03
BOSWORTH ANDREW
Chief Technology Officer
$4.38M
@ $558.00 · 2026-08-18
MAHONEY CURTIS J
Officer
$847,581
@ $543.67 · 2026-08-18
KIMMITT ROBERT M
Director
$280,780
@ $561.56 · 2026-08-03
KIMMITT ROBERT M
Director
$303,875
@ $607.75 · 2026-07-01
KIMMITT ROBERT M
Director
$317,162
@ $629.29 · 2026-06-01
MAHONEY CURTIS J
Officer
$1.27M
@ $609.92 · 2026-05-27
BOSWORTH ANDREW
Chief Technology Officer
$4.77M
@ $607.83 · 2026-05-18
KIMMITT ROBERT M
Director
$386,860
@ $667.00 · 2026-04-15
KIMMITT ROBERT M
Director
$366,572
@ $632.02 · 2026-03-16
BOSWORTH ANDREW
Chief Technology Officer
$5.11M
@ $631.24 · 2026-02-18
KIMMITT ROBERT M
Director
$370,724
@ $639.18 · 2026-02-17
OLIVAN JAVIER
Chief Operating Officer
$342,869
@ $663.19 · 2026-02-09
OLIVAN JAVIER
Chief Operating Officer
$369,448
@ $714.60 · 2026-02-02
OLIVAN JAVIER
Chief Operating Officer
$343,805
@ $665.00 · 2026-01-26
OLIVAN JAVIER
Chief Operating Officer
$314,517
@ $608.35 · 2026-01-20
KIMMITT ROBERT M
Director
$358,602
@ $618.28 · 2026-01-15
OLIVAN JAVIER
Chief Operating Officer
$337,601
@ $653.00 · 2026-01-12
OLIVAN JAVIER
Chief Operating Officer
$336,262
@ $650.41 · 2026-01-05
NEWSTEAD JENNIFER
Officer
$341,860
@ $658.69 · 2025-12-30
OLIVAN JAVIER
Chief Operating Officer
$340,258
@ $658.14 · 2025-12-29
NEWSTEAD JENNIFER
Officer
$342,218
@ $659.38 · 2025-12-23
OLIVAN JAVIER
Chief Operating Officer
$341,794
@ $661.11 · 2025-12-22
NEWSTEAD JENNIFER
Officer
$333,836
@ $643.23 · 2025-12-16
KIMMITT ROBERT M
Director
$374,680
@ $646.00 · 2025-12-15
OLIVAN JAVIER
Chief Operating Officer
$333,982
@ $646.00 · 2025-12-15
NEWSTEAD JENNIFER
Officer
$344,699
@ $664.16 · 2025-12-09
OLIVAN JAVIER
Chief Operating Officer
$346,199
@ $669.63 · 2025-12-08
NEWSTEAD JENNIFER
Officer
$333,312
@ $642.22 · 2025-12-02
OLIVAN JAVIER
Chief Operating Officer
$330,379
@ $639.03 · 2025-12-01
NEWSTEAD JENNIFER
Officer
$323,929
@ $624.14 · 2025-11-25
OLIVAN JAVIER
Chief Operating Officer
$309,445
@ $598.54 · 2025-11-24
ANDERSON AARON
Officer
$429,502
@ $591.60 · 2025-11-18
NEWSTEAD JENNIFER
Officer
$307,040
@ $591.60 · 2025-11-18
BOSWORTH ANDREW
Chief Technology Officer
$6.94M
@ $593.31 · 2025-11-18
KIMMITT ROBERT M
Director
$365,610
@ $609.35 · 2025-11-17
OLIVAN JAVIER
Chief Operating Officer
$1.90M
@ $608.60 · 2025-11-17
BOSWORTH ANDREW
Chief Technology Officer
$3.09M
@ $609.46 · 2025-11-14
OLIVAN JAVIER
Chief Operating Officer
$326,227
@ $631.00 · 2025-11-10
NEWSTEAD JENNIFER
Officer
$325,596
@ $631.00 · 2025-11-10
NEWSTEAD JENNIFER
Officer
$325,932
@ $628.00 · 2025-11-04
OLIVAN JAVIER
Chief Operating Officer
$339,152
@ $656.00 · 2025-11-03
NEWSTEAD JENNIFER
Officer
$390,807
@ $753.00 · 2025-10-28
OLIVAN JAVIER
Chief Operating Officer
$387,528
@ $749.57 · 2025-10-27
NEWSTEAD JENNIFER
Officer
$382,176
@ $736.37 · 2025-10-21
OLIVAN JAVIER
Chief Operating Officer
$372,912
@ $721.30 · 2025-10-20
KIMMITT ROBERT M
Director
$333,391
@ $716.97 · 2025-10-15
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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LLY
FearGreed
😐Neutral(56/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
META
FearGreed
😏Greed(62/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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LLY
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (56)
META
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (62)
View LLY Full AnalysisView META Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: LLY vs META

Is Eli Lilly and Company or Meta Platforms, Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, LLY trades at a 27.9% margin of safety (intrinsic value $1598 vs. price $1152), compared to META's -5.4% margin of safety (intrinsic $647 vs. $682).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Eli Lilly and Company or Meta Platforms, Inc.?▼

META scores 80/100 (Wide moat), while LLY scores 73/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Which company has better free cash flow, Eli Lilly and Company or Meta Platforms, Inc.?▼

Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) generates a 2.7% free cash flow yield, compared to Eli Lilly and Company's 1.1%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Eli Lilly and Company or Meta Platforms, Inc.?▼

LLY earns 38.4% ROIC versus META's 16.8%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Eli Lilly and Company's or Meta Platforms, Inc.'s?▼

META's dividend earns a safety score of 88/100 (Very Safe), compared to LLY's 64/100 (Safe). META has raised its dividend for 1 consecutive years.