McDonald's Corporation (MCD) vs NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-08-03, MCD is undervalued at $271, with a DCF intrinsic value of $148031152417 and a margin of safety of 100%. NEE is overvalued at $87, with an intrinsic value of $25 and a margin of safety of -251%. Of the two, MCD has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★McDonald's Corporation has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★McDonald's Corporation scores 91/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $2.47 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
- ★Gross margin of 61.0% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $3.56 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
- ★Trailing P/E of 19.5x is 24% below the historical average of 25.7x — potentially undervalued relative to its own history.
Risks
- ⚠PEG ratio of 2.60 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
- ⚠Insiders have sold $2.4M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
- ⚠NextEra Energy, Inc. scores only 24/100 on the Economic Moat Score, suggesting limited durable competitive advantages.
- ⚠High leverage (1.57x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
- ⚠Net debt/EBITDA of 7.4x indicates heavy leverage — it would take over 4 years of EBITDA to pay off net debt.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $271?
The market implies -8.6% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.
Standard FCF implies a more demanding -3.3%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.
Requires positive FCF to compute implied growth rate.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. Revenue Predictability is the standout factor.
No durable moat detected, though margin stability shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: MCD vs NEE
Is McDonald's Corporation or NextEra Energy, Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, MCD trades at a 100.0% margin of safety (intrinsic value $148031152417 vs. price $271), compared to NEE's -251.5% margin of safety (intrinsic $25 vs. $87).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, McDonald's Corporation or NextEra Energy, Inc.?▼
MCD scores 91/100 (Wide moat), while NEE scores 24/100 (None moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Is NextEra Energy, Inc. in financial distress?▼
NEE's Altman Z-Score of 1.1 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. MCD scores 2.8 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, McDonald's Corporation or NextEra Energy, Inc.?▼
MCD earns 17.5% ROIC versus NEE's 4.0%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, McDonald's Corporation's or NextEra Energy, Inc.'s?▼
MCD's dividend earns a safety score of 69/100 (Safe), compared to NEE's 54/100 (Borderline). MCD has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.