Mastercard Incorporated (MA) vs Xylem Inc. (XYL): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?
As of 2026-11-01, MA is overvalued at $638, with a DCF intrinsic value of $563 and a margin of safety of -13%. XYL is fairly valued at $92, with an intrinsic value of $112 and a margin of safety of 17%. Of the two, XYL has the wider margin of safety.
Rewards
- ★Mastercard Incorporated has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
- ★Gross margin of 100.0% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
- ★Mastercard Incorporated scores 99/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
- ★Free cash flow has grown at a 32.9% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
- ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $6.42 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
- ★Trailing P/E of 20.5x is 50% below the historical average of 40.8x — potentially undervalued relative to its own history.
Risks
- ⚠FCF yield of 3.0% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
- ⚠High leverage (2.00x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
- ⚠9 insider sales totaling $24.1M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
- ⚠Share count has increased by 35% over the past 4 years, diluting existing shareholders.
- ⚠Despite buyback spending, shares outstanding increased in 3 out of 4 years — stock-based compensation is offsetting repurchases.
- ⚠FCF yield of 5.7% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.
Key Valuation Metrics
Learn more →Historical Fundamentals
Learn more →Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.
$1 Retained Earnings Test
Learn more →> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
Learn more →Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth
Learn more →What growth rate is the market pricing in at $638?
The market implies +16.4% Owner Earnings growth, roughly in line with history — reasonably priced.
Standard FCF implies +15.0%, reflecting ongoing growth investment.
What growth rate is the market pricing in at $92?
The market implies +7.4% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.
Standard FCF implies a more demanding +7.3%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.
Economic Moat Score
Learn more →Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. ROIC Consistency is the standout factor.
Narrow moat with reinvestment efficiency as the key competitive advantage. Improving roic consistency would strengthen the moat.
Forensic Accounting
Learn more →M-Score Trend
M-Score Trend
Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
Ownership Breakdown
Learn more →High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
Insider Buying Activity
Learn more →Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.
Insider Selling Activity
Learn more →Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.
🎭 Mr. Market's Mood
Learn more →"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"
"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"
Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
⚖️ Buffett Signal
Learn more →The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.
Frequently Asked Questions: MA vs XYL
Is Mastercard Incorporated or Xylem Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼
Based on our discounted cash flow model, XYL trades at a 17.2% margin of safety (intrinsic value $112 vs. price $92), compared to MA's -13.3% margin of safety (intrinsic $563 vs. $638).
Which stock has a wider economic moat, Mastercard Incorporated or Xylem Inc.?▼
MA scores 99/100 (Wide moat), while XYL scores 52/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.
Which company has better free cash flow, Mastercard Incorporated or Xylem Inc.?▼
Xylem Inc. (XYL) generates a 5.7% free cash flow yield, compared to Mastercard Incorporated's 3.0%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.
Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Mastercard Incorporated or Xylem Inc.?▼
MA earns 56.6% ROIC versus XYL's 8.4%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.
Which dividend is safer, Mastercard Incorporated's or Xylem Inc.'s?▼
XYL's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to MA's 94/100 (Very Safe). XYL has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.