SafetyMargin.ioSafetyMargin.io
BlogWatchlistCompare
Compare Stocks › MA vs ULTA

Mastercard Incorporated (MA) vs Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA)

MA
Mastercard Incorporated
$495.46
VS
ULTA
Ulta Beauty, Inc.
$531.95

Rewards

MA
  • ★Mastercard Incorporated has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Gross margin of 100.0% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Mastercard Incorporated scores 99/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
ULTA
  • ★Ulta Beauty, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Ulta Beauty, Inc. scores 77/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with reinvestment efficiency as the strongest competitive dimension.
  • ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.

Risks

MA
  • ⚠High leverage (2.82x debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
  • ⚠Insiders have sold $4.5M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
ULTA
  • ⚠Beneish M-Score of -1.33 flags financial patterns consistent with potential earnings manipulation — warrants further investigation.

Key Valuation Metrics

Learn more →
MA
ULTA
Valuation
$16.15B
Free Cash Flow
$900.10M
3.69%
FCF Yield
3.87%
28.66
Trailing P/E
20.75
21.78
Forward P/E
16.83
Quality & Moat
63.51%
ROIC
24.02%
222.67%
ROE
41.15%
100.00%
Gross Margin
43.05%
1.35
PEG Ratio
1.77
Balance Sheet Safety
2.82
Debt / Equity
0.78
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
0.50
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.92
0.70%
Dividend Yield
N/A
MA: 6Ties: 2ULTA: 3
MAULTA

Historical Fundamentals

Learn more →
MA

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

ULTA

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

Learn more →
MA
$5.61
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$31.68B
Δ Market Cap
+$177.79B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
ULTA
$-0.32
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Market Cap Declined
Σ Retained
$3.65B
Δ Market Cap
$-1.18B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

Learn more →
MA
13.1% Margin of Safety
Price is 13.1% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $495.46
Fair Value: $570.42
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
ULTA
16.3% Margin of Safety
Price is 16.3% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $531.95
Fair Value: $635.70
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

Learn more →
MA

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $495?

+13.2%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +12.2%

The market implies +13.2% Owner Earnings growth, roughly in line with history — reasonably priced.

Standard FCF implies +12.2%, reflecting ongoing growth investment.

ULTA

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $532?

+8.8%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +12.1%

The market implies +8.8% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +12.1%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

Learn more →
MA
99/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. ROIC Consistency is the standout factor.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
ULTA
77/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by reinvestment efficiency. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

Learn more →
MA
-2.53
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
ULTA
-1.33
Likely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

Learn more →
MA
Insiders 0.6%Institutions 91.3%Retail & Other 8.1%
No. of Institutional Holders4,775
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
ULTA
Insiders 0.4%Institutions 101.6%
No. of Institutional Holders1,571
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

Learn more →
MA
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
ULTA
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
STEELMAN KECIA
Chief Executive Officer
$499,528
@ $346.89 · 2025-03-20
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

Learn more →
MA
1
Sells (3M)
18
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $55.77M
LING HAI
Officer
$4.48M
@ $499.20 · 2026-02-24
SACHIN J. MEHRA
Chief Financial Officer
$10.20M
@ $591.00 · 2025-09-02
LING HAI
Officer
$2.69M
@ $600.00 · 2025-08-22
SACHIN J. MEHRA
Chief Financial Officer
$10.46M
@ $586.89 · 2025-08-19
SACHIN J. MEHRA
Chief Financial Officer
$3.83M
@ $566.46 · 2025-08-05
GENACHOWSKI JULIUS
Director
$178,049
@ $570.67 · 2025-07-07
KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA
Officer
$536,480
@ $560.00 · 2025-06-30
SESHADRI RAJEEV
Officer
$601,447
@ $546.77 · 2025-06-27
KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA
Officer
$536,480
@ $560.00 · 2025-06-24
GENACHOWSKI JULIUS
Director
$173,910
@ $561.00 · 2025-06-24
VOSBURG CRAIG
Officer
$5.02M
@ $532.97 · 2025-06-20
SESHADRI RAJEEV
Officer
$508,474
@ $535.80 · 2025-06-20
SESHADRI RAJEEV
Officer
$1.76M
@ $561.78 · 2025-06-16
KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA
Officer
$549,373
@ $572.86 · 2025-06-13
VOSBURG CRAIG
Officer
$5.55M
@ $588.18 · 2025-06-12
VOSBURG CRAIG
Officer
$8.22M
@ $585.05 · 2025-06-05
ARKELL SANDRA A
Officer
$218,223
@ $577.31 · 2025-05-15
ARKELL SANDRA A
Officer
$257,535
@ $572.30 · 2025-05-12
MIEBACH MICHAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$8.68M
@ $550.16 · 2025-03-26
MCLAUGHLIN EDWARD GRUNDE
Officer
$3.81M
@ $534.68 · 2025-03-19
MIEBACH MICHAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$9.78M
@ $553.76 · 2025-03-05
VOSBURG CRAIG
Officer
$6.12M
@ $556.14 · 2025-03-05
VOSBURG CRAIG
Officer
$6.19M
@ $562.72 · 2025-02-26
MIEBACH MICHAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$10.17M
@ $564.95 · 2025-02-18
VOSBURG CRAIG
Officer
$7.97M
@ $565.00 · 2025-02-18
MCLAUGHLIN EDWARD GRUNDE
Officer
$6.18M
@ $564.99 · 2025-02-18
SACHIN J. MEHRA
Chief Financial Officer
$2.36M
@ $500.44 · 2024-11-01
MADABHUSHI VENKATA RAJAMANNAR
Officer
$2.30M
@ $491.03 · 2024-09-27
MADABHUSHI VENKATA RAJAMANNAR
Officer
$2.29M
@ $489.86 · 2024-09-20
ARKELL SANDRA A
Officer
$550,000
@ $500.00 · 2024-09-17
MADABHUSHI VENKATA RAJAMANNAR
Officer
$2.31M
@ $493.10 · 2024-09-13
ARKELL SANDRA A
Officer
$528,000
@ $480.00 · 2024-08-29
MASTERCARD FOUNDATION ASSET MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$42.19M
@ $468.80 · 2024-08-22
MASTERCARD FOUNDATION ASSET MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$42.03M
@ $467.02 · 2024-08-21
LING HAI
Officer
$1.36M
@ $470.00 · 2024-08-16
SACHIN J. MEHRA
Chief Financial Officer
$3.16M
@ $470.00 · 2024-08-16
SACHIN J. MEHRA
Chief Financial Officer
$6.11M
@ $455.00 · 2024-08-05
LING HAI
Officer
$1.35M
@ $465.46 · 2024-08-01
ARKELL SANDRA A
Officer
$512,006
@ $465.46 · 2024-08-01
VOSBURG CRAIG
Officer
$4.07M
@ $451.06 · 2024-06-20
MASTERCARD FOUNDATION ASSET MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$47.72M
@ $445.98 · 2024-06-17
MURPHY TIMOTHY H
Officer
$2.34M
@ $446.24 · 2024-06-17
MASTERCARD FOUNDATION ASSET MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$49.51M
@ $442.03 · 2024-06-13
SESHADRI RAJEEV
Officer
$3.11M
@ $449.66 · 2024-06-12
MASTERCARD FOUNDATION ASSET MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$50.61M
@ $447.85 · 2024-06-10
VOSBURG CRAIG
Officer
$4.04M
@ $447.28 · 2024-06-05
SESHADRI RAJEEV
Officer
$3.71M
@ $443.93 · 2024-06-05
MURPHY TIMOTHY H
Officer
$2.31M
@ $441.57 · 2024-06-03
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
ULTA
1
Sells (3M)
2
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $507,974
MRKONIC GEORGE R JR
Director
$243,759
@ $539.29 · 2026-04-07
SMITH MICHAEL C
Director
$264,215
@ $528.43 · 2025-09-04
CARO JODI J
General Counsel
$332,984
@ $369.16 · 2025-04-01
HALLIGAN CATHERINE ANN
Director
$39,008
@ $390.08 · 2024-07-02
CARO JODI J
General Counsel
$252,639
@ $388.68 · 2024-06-25
MRKONIC GEORGE R JR
Director
$154,568
@ $389.34 · 2024-06-04
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

Learn more →
MA
FearGreed
😐Neutral(45/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
ULTA
FearGreed
😐Neutral(46/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

Learn more →
MA
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (45)
ULTA
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (46)
View MA Full AnalysisView ULTA Full Analysis
MA vs ULTA: Which Is the Better Buy? | SafetyMargin.io