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Compare Stocks › MA vs TKO

Mastercard Incorporated (MA) vs TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-09-17, MA is fairly valued at $566, with a DCF intrinsic value of $562 and a margin of safety of -1%. TKO is fairly valued at $189, with an intrinsic value of $210 and a margin of safety of 10%. Of the two, TKO has the wider margin of safety.

MA
Mastercard Incorporated
$566.00
VS
TKO
TKO Group Holdings, Inc.
$188.83

Rewards

MA
  • ★Mastercard Incorporated has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Gross margin of 100.0% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Mastercard Incorporated scores 99/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
TKO
  • ★Free cash flow has grown at a 33.3% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.

Risks

MA
  • ⚠High leverage (2.33x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
  • ⚠13 insider sales totaling $62.1M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
TKO
  • ⚠ROIC has declined by 6.3 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
  • ⚠8 insider sales totaling $23.1M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.

Key Valuation Metrics

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MA
TKO
Valuation
$16.96B
Free Cash Flow
$1.16B
3.42%
FCF Yield
3.24%
31.15
Trailing P/E
66.26
24.58
Forward P/E
40.34
Quality & Moat
55.99%
ROIC
10.19%
241.20%
ROE
7.06%
100.00%
Gross Margin
59.46%
1.48
PEG Ratio
1.61
Balance Sheet Safety
2.33
Net Debt / Equity
0.52
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
0.59
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.69
0.61%
Dividend Yield
1.64%
MA: 9Ties: 1TKO: 2
MATKO

Historical Fundamentals

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MA

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

TKO

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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MA
$5.62
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$31.68B
Δ Market Cap
+$177.96B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
TKO
N/A
Net losses over 3 years — test not applicable
Company had negative cumulative retained earnings
Σ Retained
$-212.4M
Δ Market Cap
+$10.56B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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MA
0.7% Overvalued
Price is 0.7% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $566.00
Fair Value: $562.28
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
TKO
9.9% Margin of Safety
Price is 9.9% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $188.83
Fair Value: $209.59
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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MA

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $566?

+14.9%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +13.2%

The market implies +14.9% Owner Earnings growth, roughly in line with history — reasonably priced.

Standard FCF implies +13.2%, reflecting ongoing growth investment.

TKO

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $189?

+24.7%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +15.2%

The market implies +24.7% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +15.2%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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MA
99/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. ROIC Consistency is the standout factor.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
TKO
30/100
No Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

No durable moat detected, though reinvestment efficiency shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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MA
-2.53
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
TKO
-2.72
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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MA
Insiders 0.1%Institutions 91.2%Retail & Other 8.7%
No. of Institutional Holders4,818
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
TKO
Insiders 18.1%Institutions 116.4%
No. of Institutional Holders888
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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MA
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
TKO
0
Buys (3M)
4
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $5.49M
KRAFT JONATHAN
Director
$987,797
@ $189.96 · 2026-05-14
EMANUEL ARIEL Z
Chief Executive Officer
$2.00M
@ $185.09 · 2026-05-13
SHAPIRO MARK S
President
$2.00M
@ $185.05 · 2026-05-13
SCHLEIMER ANDREW M
Chief Financial Officer
$499,953
@ $185.44 · 2026-05-13
BYNOE PETER C B
Director
$150,220
@ $203.00 · 2025-09-16
BYNOE PETER C B
Director
$166,198
@ $169.59 · 2025-06-05
SILVER LAKE WEST VOTECO, L.L.C.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$250.00M
@ $158.32 · 2025-06-03
ENDEAVOR GROUP HOLDINGS, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$250.00M
@ $158.32 · 2025-06-03
MEDINA SONYA E.
Director
$33,303
@ $142.93 · 2025-03-17
KRAFT JONATHAN
Director
$3.53M
@ $150.13 · 2025-03-07
EMANUEL ARIEL Z
Chief Executive Officer
$68.13M
@ $174.48 · 2025-02-12
WHITESELL PATRICK
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$68.13M
@ $174.48 · 2025-02-12
SILVER LAKE WEST HOLDCO, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$68.13M
@ $174.48 · 2025-02-12
EMANUEL ARIEL Z
Chief Executive Officer
$54.18M
@ $163.27 · 2025-02-07
WHITESELL PATRICK
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$54.18M
@ $163.27 · 2025-02-07
SILVER LAKE WEST HOLDCO, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$54.18M
@ $163.27 · 2025-02-07
EMANUEL ARIEL Z
Chief Executive Officer
$39.55M
@ $157.27 · 2025-02-04
WHITESELL PATRICK
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$39.55M
@ $157.27 · 2025-02-04
SILVER LAKE WEST HOLDCO, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$39.55M
@ $157.27 · 2025-02-04
EMANUEL ARIEL Z
Chief Executive Officer
$40.71M
@ $157.44 · 2025-01-30
SILVER LAKE WEST HOLDCO, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$40.71M
@ $157.44 · 2025-01-30
EMANUEL ARIEL Z
Chief Executive Officer
$48.00M
@ $152.27 · 2025-01-27
WHITESELL PATRICK
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$48.00M
@ $152.27 · 2025-01-27
EMANUEL ARIEL Z
Chief Executive Officer
$50.28M
@ $143.65 · 2025-01-22
WHITESELL PATRICK
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$50.28M
@ $143.65 · 2025-01-22
SILVER LAKE WEST HOLDCO, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$50.28M
@ $143.65 · 2025-01-22
EMANUEL ARIEL Z
Chief Executive Officer
$77.40M
@ $147.04 · 2024-12-17
WHITESELL PATRICK
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$77.40M
@ $147.04 · 2024-12-17
SILVER LAKE WEST HOLDCO, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$77.40M
@ $147.04 · 2024-12-17
EMANUEL ARIEL Z
Chief Executive Officer
$48.13M
@ $142.64 · 2024-12-13
WHITESELL PATRICK
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$48.13M
@ $142.64 · 2024-12-13
SILVER LAKE WEST HOLDCO, L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$48.13M
@ $142.64 · 2024-12-13
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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MA
13
Sells (3M)
14
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $66.62M
SACHIN J. MEHRA
Officer
$1.91M
@ $584.00 · 2026-09-02
KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA
Officer
$547,837
@ $593.54 · 2026-08-31
SACHIN J. MEHRA
Officer
$4.87M
@ $576.53 · 2026-08-20
KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA
Officer
$673,201
@ $565.24 · 2026-08-17
SACHIN J. MEHRA
Officer
$1.72M
@ $571.87 · 2026-08-05
MIEBACH MICHAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$8.84M
@ $575.00 · 2026-08-05
KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA
Officer
$2.44M
@ $570.31 · 2026-08-04
MIEBACH MICHAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$19.08M
@ $573.84 · 2026-08-03
MCLAUGHLIN EDWARD GRUNDE
Officer
$10.59M
@ $534.87 · 2026-07-15
ARKELL SANDRA A
Officer
$185,760
@ $540.00 · 2026-07-15
ARKELL SANDRA A
Officer
$216,000
@ $540.00 · 2026-07-07
SESHADRI RAJEEV
Officer
$3.58M
@ $526.37 · 2026-07-02
MCLAUGHLIN EDWARD GRUNDE
Officer
$7.49M
@ $525.19 · 2026-07-01
LING HAI
Officer
$4.48M
@ $499.20 · 2026-02-24
SACHIN J. MEHRA
Chief Financial Officer
$10.20M
@ $591.00 · 2025-09-02
LING HAI
Officer
$2.69M
@ $600.00 · 2025-08-22
SACHIN J. MEHRA
Chief Financial Officer
$10.46M
@ $586.89 · 2025-08-19
SACHIN J. MEHRA
Chief Financial Officer
$3.83M
@ $566.46 · 2025-08-05
GENACHOWSKI JULIUS
Director
$178,049
@ $570.67 · 2025-07-07
KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA
Officer
$536,480
@ $560.00 · 2025-06-30
SESHADRI RAJEEV
Officer
$601,447
@ $546.77 · 2025-06-27
GENACHOWSKI JULIUS
Director
$173,910
@ $561.00 · 2025-06-24
KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA
Officer
$536,480
@ $560.00 · 2025-06-24
SESHADRI RAJEEV
Officer
$508,474
@ $535.80 · 2025-06-20
VOSBURG CRAIG
Officer
$5.02M
@ $532.97 · 2025-06-20
SESHADRI RAJEEV
Officer
$1.76M
@ $561.78 · 2025-06-16
KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA
Officer
$549,373
@ $572.86 · 2025-06-13
VOSBURG CRAIG
Officer
$5.55M
@ $588.18 · 2025-06-12
VOSBURG CRAIG
Officer
$8.22M
@ $585.05 · 2025-06-05
ARKELL SANDRA A
Officer
$218,223
@ $577.31 · 2025-05-15
ARKELL SANDRA A
Officer
$257,535
@ $572.30 · 2025-05-12
MIEBACH MICHAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$8.68M
@ $550.16 · 2025-03-26
MCLAUGHLIN EDWARD GRUNDE
Officer
$3.81M
@ $534.68 · 2025-03-19
VOSBURG CRAIG
Officer
$6.12M
@ $556.14 · 2025-03-05
MIEBACH MICHAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$9.78M
@ $553.76 · 2025-03-05
VOSBURG CRAIG
Officer
$6.19M
@ $562.72 · 2025-02-26
MCLAUGHLIN EDWARD GRUNDE
Officer
$6.18M
@ $564.99 · 2025-02-18
VOSBURG CRAIG
Officer
$7.97M
@ $565.00 · 2025-02-18
MIEBACH MICHAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$10.17M
@ $564.95 · 2025-02-18
SACHIN J. MEHRA
Chief Financial Officer
$2.36M
@ $500.44 · 2024-11-01
MADABHUSHI VENKATA RAJAMANNAR
Officer
$2.30M
@ $491.03 · 2024-09-27
MADABHUSHI VENKATA RAJAMANNAR
Officer
$2.29M
@ $489.86 · 2024-09-20
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
TKO
8
Sells (3M)
43
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $69.09M
KHAN NICHOLAS
Director
$1.87M
@ $194.77 · 2026-09-14
KHAN NICHOLAS
Director
$2.91M
@ $196.61 · 2026-08-19
EMANUEL ARIEL Z
Chief Executive Officer
$4.80M
@ $194.39 · 2026-08-18
SHAPIRO MARK S
President
$3.72M
@ $194.39 · 2026-08-18
SCHLEIMER ANDREW M
Chief Financial Officer
$1.93M
@ $194.39 · 2026-08-18
KHAN NICHOLAS
Director
$1.89M
@ $197.17 · 2026-08-13
KHAN NICHOLAS
Director
$4.20M
@ $182.18 · 2026-07-21
KHAN NICHOLAS
Director
$1.75M
@ $182.63 · 2026-07-13
KHAN NICHOLAS
Director
$1.99M
@ $207.56 · 2026-06-12
KHAN NICHOLAS
Director
$1.77M
@ $185.99 · 2026-05-04
KHAN NICHOLAS
Director
$1.89M
@ $198.59 · 2026-04-06
KAPRAL SHANE
Chief Financial Officer
$50,584
@ $199.15 · 2026-03-09
KHAN NICHOLAS
Director
$2.10M
@ $220.29 · 2026-03-03
KAPRAL SHANE
Chief Financial Officer
$136,697
@ $221.91 · 2026-03-03
KAPRAL SHANE
Chief Financial Officer
$129,360
@ $210.00 · 2026-02-23
KAPRAL SHANE
Officer
$128,134
@ $208.01 · 2026-02-17
KAPRAL SHANE
Officer
$130,309
@ $211.54 · 2026-02-09
KAPRAL SHANE
Officer
$124,457
@ $202.04 · 2026-02-02
KRAUSS SETH D
Officer
$455,802
@ $200.71 · 2026-01-27
KAPRAL SHANE
Chief Financial Officer
$124,671
@ $202.72 · 2026-01-27
SHAPIRO MARK S
President
$2.90M
@ $201.98 · 2026-01-22
KHAN NICHOLAS
Director
$1.56M
@ $201.98 · 2026-01-22
KHAN NICHOLAS
Director
$1.92M
@ $201.31 · 2026-01-22
KAPRAL SHANE
Chief Financial Officer
$374,962
@ $202.57 · 2026-01-22
SCHLEIMER ANDREW M
Chief Financial Officer
$2.42M
@ $201.98 · 2026-01-22
KRAUSS SETH D
Officer
$2.82M
@ $201.22 · 2026-01-21
KAPRAL SHANE
Officer
$148,924
@ $198.83 · 2026-01-12
KRAUSS SETH D
Officer
$1.14M
@ $200.39 · 2026-01-09
KAPRAL SHANE
Chief Financial Officer
$45,129
@ $201.47 · 2026-01-07
SHAPIRO MARK S
President
$6.54M
@ $204.08 · 2026-01-05
KHAN NICHOLAS
Director
$7.64M
@ $204.01 · 2026-01-05
KAPRAL SHANE
Chief Financial Officer
$397,385
@ $204.21 · 2026-01-05
SCHLEIMER ANDREW M
Chief Financial Officer
$1.17M
@ $204.08 · 2026-01-05
KRAUSS SETH D
Officer
$2.03M
@ $207.67 · 2026-01-02
KAPRAL SHANE
Officer
$109,115
@ $215.22 · 2025-12-29
KAPRAL SHANE
Chief Financial Officer
$52,436
@ $206.44 · 2025-12-15
KAPRAL SHANE
Chief Financial Officer
$51,412
@ $202.41 · 2025-12-08
KHAN NICHOLAS
Director
$1.86M
@ $195.16 · 2025-12-03
KAPRAL SHANE
Officer
$48,976
@ $192.82 · 2025-12-01
KAPRAL SHANE
Chief Financial Officer
$45,293
@ $178.32 · 2025-11-24
KAPRAL SHANE
Chief Financial Officer
$46,624
@ $183.56 · 2025-11-17
KHAN NICHOLAS
Director
$1.79M
@ $188.26 · 2025-11-03
KHAN NICHOLAS
Director
$1.88M
@ $197.82 · 2025-10-03
KHAN NICHOLAS
Director
$1.77M
@ $186.43 · 2025-09-03
KHAN NICHOLAS
Director
$9.31M
@ $170.22 · 2025-07-22
KHAN NICHOLAS
Director
$1.68M
@ $176.96 · 2025-07-03
KHAN NICHOLAS
Director
$1.51M
@ $158.46 · 2025-06-02
KRAUSS SETH D
Officer
$350,584
@ $143.80 · 2025-01-21
KAPRAL SHANE
Officer
$18,694
@ $143.80 · 2025-01-21
SCHLEIMER ANDREW M
Chief Financial Officer
$469,507
@ $143.80 · 2025-01-21
SHAPIRO MARK S
Officer and Director
$4.49M
@ $141.94 · 2025-01-03
KRAUSS SETH D
Officer
$576,986
@ $141.94 · 2025-01-03
KHAN NICHOLAS
Director
$3.90M
@ $141.94 · 2025-01-03
KAPRAL SHANE
Officer
$146,766
@ $141.94 · 2025-01-03
SCHLEIMER ANDREW M
Chief Financial Officer
$769,173
@ $141.94 · 2025-01-03
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

Learn more →
MA
FearGreed
😐Neutral(59/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
TKO
FearGreed
😐Neutral(41/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

Learn more →
MA
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (59)
TKO
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (41)
View MA Full AnalysisView TKO Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: MA vs TKO

Is Mastercard Incorporated or TKO Group Holdings, Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, TKO trades at a 9.9% margin of safety (intrinsic value $210 vs. price $189), compared to MA's -0.7% margin of safety (intrinsic $562 vs. $566).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Mastercard Incorporated or TKO Group Holdings, Inc.?▼

MA scores 99/100 (Wide moat), while TKO scores 30/100 (None moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is TKO Group Holdings, Inc. in financial distress?▼

TKO's Altman Z-Score of 2.0 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. MA scores 10.6 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which company has better free cash flow, Mastercard Incorporated or TKO Group Holdings, Inc.?▼

Mastercard Incorporated (MA) generates a 3.4% free cash flow yield, compared to TKO Group Holdings, Inc.'s 3.2%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Mastercard Incorporated or TKO Group Holdings, Inc.?▼

MA earns 56.0% ROIC versus TKO's 10.2%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Mastercard Incorporated's or TKO Group Holdings, Inc.'s?▼

MA's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to TKO's 45/100 (Borderline). MA has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.

MA vs TKO: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026? | SafetyMargin.io