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Mastercard Incorporated (MA) vs Republic Services, Inc. (RSG): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-11-01, MA is overvalued at $638, with a DCF intrinsic value of $563 and a margin of safety of -13%. RSG is overvalued at $244, with an intrinsic value of $131 and a margin of safety of -86%. Of the two, MA has the wider margin of safety.

MA
Mastercard Incorporated
$638.01
VS
RSG
Republic Services, Inc.
$244.04

Rewards

MA
  • ★Mastercard Incorporated has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Gross margin of 100.0% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Mastercard Incorporated scores 99/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
RSG
  • ★Republic Services, Inc. scores 89/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
  • ★Free cash flow has grown at a 11.5% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
  • ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $2.00 of earning power — management is creating shareholder value.

Risks

MA
  • ⚠FCF yield of 3.0% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
  • ⚠High leverage (2.00x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
  • ⚠9 insider sales totaling $24.1M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
RSG
  • ⚠FCF yield of 2.7% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
  • ⚠PEG ratio of 3.16 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.

Key Valuation Metrics

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MA
RSG
Valuation
$16.63B
Free Cash Flow
$1.98B
2.99%
FCF Yield
2.66%
33.39
Trailing P/E
33.80
27.58
Forward P/E
30.48
Quality & Moat
56.56%
ROIC
10.51%
231.37%
ROE
18.48%
100.00%
Gross Margin
43.02%
1.66
PEG Ratio
3.16
Balance Sheet Safety
2.00
Net Debt / Equity
1.14
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
0.59
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.60
0.55%
Dividend Yield
1.10%
MA: 8Ties: 2RSG: 2
MARSG

Historical Fundamentals

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MA

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

RSG

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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MA
$5.62
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$31.68B
Δ Market Cap
+$177.96B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
RSG
$6.36
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$3.85B
Δ Market Cap
+$24.50B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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MA
13.3% Overvalued
Price is 13.3% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $638.01
Fair Value: $562.90
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
RSG
86.3% Overvalued
Price is 86.3% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $244.04
Fair Value: $130.97
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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MA

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $638?

+16.4%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +15.0%

The market implies +16.4% Owner Earnings growth, roughly in line with history — reasonably priced.

Standard FCF implies +15.0%, reflecting ongoing growth investment.

RSG

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $244?

+17.3%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +18.6%

The market implies +17.3% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +18.6%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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MA
99/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. ROIC Consistency is the standout factor.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
RSG
89/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. Revenue Predictability is the standout factor.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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MA
-2.53
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
RSG
-2.74
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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MA
Insiders 0.1%Institutions 91.1%Retail & Other 8.8%
No. of Institutional Holders4,838
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
RSG
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 99.5%Retail & Other 0.4%
No. of Institutional Holders1,828
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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MA
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
RSG
12
Buys (3M)
15
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $1.58B
CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$129.31M
@ $222.63 · 2026-09-11
CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$159.59M
@ $221.41 · 2026-09-09
CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$164.70M
@ $223.99 · 2026-09-04
CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$119.10M
@ $223.04 · 2026-09-02
CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$122.37M
@ $221.52 · 2026-08-31
CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$123.51M
@ $220.52 · 2026-08-27
CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$127.03M
@ $222.42 · 2026-08-25
CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$88.18M
@ $220.30 · 2026-08-21
CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$83.40M
@ $220.08 · 2026-08-19
CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$76.64M
@ $215.26 · 2026-08-17
CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$78.33M
@ $215.81 · 2026-08-13
CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$108.15M
@ $215.57 · 2026-08-11
CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$101.84M
@ $208.69 · 2026-05-18
CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$100.53M
@ $201.40 · 2026-05-13
WEYMOUTH KATHARINE B
Director
$100,122
@ $209.46 · 2025-12-09
CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$1.00M
@ $234.91 · 2025-08-19
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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MA
9
Sells (3M)
16
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $69.73M
LING HAI
Chief Financial Officer
$2.68M
@ $620.00 · 2026-10-16
GENACHOWSKI JULIUS
Director
$435,418
@ $587.61 · 2026-10-12
SACHIN J. MEHRA
Officer
$1.91M
@ $584.00 · 2026-09-02
KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA
Officer
$547,837
@ $593.54 · 2026-08-31
SACHIN J. MEHRA
Officer
$4.87M
@ $576.53 · 2026-08-20
KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA
Officer
$673,201
@ $565.24 · 2026-08-17
MIEBACH MICHAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$8.84M
@ $575.00 · 2026-08-05
SACHIN J. MEHRA
Officer
$1.72M
@ $571.87 · 2026-08-05
KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA
Officer
$2.44M
@ $570.31 · 2026-08-04
MIEBACH MICHAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$19.08M
@ $573.84 · 2026-08-03
ARKELL SANDRA A
Officer
$185,760
@ $540.00 · 2026-07-15
MCLAUGHLIN EDWARD GRUNDE
Officer
$10.59M
@ $534.87 · 2026-07-15
ARKELL SANDRA A
Officer
$216,000
@ $540.00 · 2026-07-07
SESHADRI RAJEEV
Officer
$3.58M
@ $526.37 · 2026-07-02
MCLAUGHLIN EDWARD GRUNDE
Officer
$7.49M
@ $525.19 · 2026-07-01
LING HAI
Officer
$4.48M
@ $499.20 · 2026-02-24
SACHIN J. MEHRA
Chief Financial Officer
$10.20M
@ $591.00 · 2025-09-02
LING HAI
Officer
$2.69M
@ $600.00 · 2025-08-22
SACHIN J. MEHRA
Chief Financial Officer
$10.46M
@ $586.89 · 2025-08-19
SACHIN J. MEHRA
Chief Financial Officer
$3.83M
@ $566.46 · 2025-08-05
GENACHOWSKI JULIUS
Director
$178,049
@ $570.67 · 2025-07-07
KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA
Officer
$536,480
@ $560.00 · 2025-06-30
SESHADRI RAJEEV
Officer
$601,447
@ $546.77 · 2025-06-27
KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA
Officer
$536,480
@ $560.00 · 2025-06-24
GENACHOWSKI JULIUS
Director
$173,910
@ $561.00 · 2025-06-24
VOSBURG CRAIG
Officer
$5.02M
@ $532.97 · 2025-06-20
SESHADRI RAJEEV
Officer
$508,474
@ $535.80 · 2025-06-20
SESHADRI RAJEEV
Officer
$1.76M
@ $561.78 · 2025-06-16
KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA
Officer
$549,373
@ $572.86 · 2025-06-13
VOSBURG CRAIG
Officer
$5.55M
@ $588.18 · 2025-06-12
VOSBURG CRAIG
Officer
$8.22M
@ $585.05 · 2025-06-05
ARKELL SANDRA A
Officer
$218,223
@ $577.31 · 2025-05-15
ARKELL SANDRA A
Officer
$257,535
@ $572.30 · 2025-05-12
MIEBACH MICHAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$8.68M
@ $550.16 · 2025-03-26
MCLAUGHLIN EDWARD GRUNDE
Officer
$3.81M
@ $534.68 · 2025-03-19
VOSBURG CRAIG
Officer
$6.12M
@ $556.14 · 2025-03-05
MIEBACH MICHAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$9.78M
@ $553.76 · 2025-03-05
VOSBURG CRAIG
Officer
$6.19M
@ $562.72 · 2025-02-26
VOSBURG CRAIG
Officer
$7.97M
@ $565.00 · 2025-02-18
MIEBACH MICHAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$10.17M
@ $564.95 · 2025-02-18
MCLAUGHLIN EDWARD GRUNDE
Officer
$6.18M
@ $564.99 · 2025-02-18
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
RSG
0
Sells (3M)
1
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $77,877
CARLSEN ELYSE
Officer
$77,877
@ $216.32 · 2026-05-19
BRUMMER GREGG
Chief Operating Officer
$1.72M
@ $233.94 · 2025-08-22
CARLSEN ELYSE
Officer
$59,495
@ $253.17 · 2025-06-05
RICHARDSON LARSON
Officer
$525,954
@ $239.07 · 2025-03-03
BRUMMER GREGG
Chief Operating Officer
$1.44M
@ $228.20 · 2025-02-19
WEYMOUTH KATHARINE B
Director
$400,187
@ $215.27 · 2024-12-05
DELGHIACCIO BRIAN M
Chief Financial Officer
$1.07M
@ $210.02 · 2024-11-19
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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MA
FearGreed
😏Greed(74/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
RSG
FearGreed
😏Greed(70/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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MA
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (74)
RSG
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (70)
View MA Full AnalysisView RSG Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: MA vs RSG

Is Mastercard Incorporated or Republic Services, Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, MA trades at a -13.3% margin of safety (intrinsic value $563 vs. price $638), compared to RSG's -86.3% margin of safety (intrinsic $131 vs. $244).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Mastercard Incorporated or Republic Services, Inc.?▼

MA scores 99/100 (Wide moat), while RSG scores 89/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is Republic Services, Inc. in financial distress?▼

RSG's Altman Z-Score of 3.0 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. MA scores 10.6 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which company has better free cash flow, Mastercard Incorporated or Republic Services, Inc.?▼

Mastercard Incorporated (MA) generates a 3.0% free cash flow yield, compared to Republic Services, Inc.'s 2.7%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Mastercard Incorporated or Republic Services, Inc.?▼

MA earns 56.6% ROIC versus RSG's 10.5%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Mastercard Incorporated's or Republic Services, Inc.'s?▼

RSG's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to MA's 94/100 (Very Safe). RSG has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.

MA vs RSG: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026? | SafetyMargin.io