Compare Stocks › MA vs ORLY

Mastercard Incorporated (MA) vs O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-06-19, MA is fairly valued at $490, with a DCF intrinsic value of $571 and a margin of safety of 14%. ORLY is overvalued at $87, with an intrinsic value of $64 and a margin of safety of -35%. Of the two, MA has the wider margin of safety.

Mastercard Incorporated

$489.79

ORLY

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.

$86.84

Rewards

★Mastercard Incorporated has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
★Gross margin of 100.0% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
★Mastercard Incorporated scores 99/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.

ORLY

★O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
★O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. scores 89/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
★Altman Z-Score of 4.08 indicates very low bankruptcy risk — the company is firmly in the safe zone.

Risks

⚠High leverage (1.60x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
⚠12 insider sales with no purchases over the past 12 months — a persistent pattern of insider selling.

ORLY

⚠FCF yield of 1.8% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
⚠5 insider sales totaling $9.8M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.
⚠Free cash flow has declined at a 14.9% CAGR over the past 4 years — a concerning trend.

Key Valuation Metrics

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ORLY

Valuation

$16.15B

Free Cash Flow

$1.33B

3.73%

FCF Yield

1.85%

28.31

Trailing P/E

28.19

21.50

Forward P/E

24.01

Quality & Moat

63.51%

ROIC

30.40%

232.08%

ROE

N/A

100.00%

Gross Margin

51.63%

1.54

PEG Ratio

1.94

Balance Sheet Safety

1.60

Net Debt / Equity

N/A

Interest Coverage

N/A

0.50

Net Debt / EBITDA

2.08

0.69%

Dividend Yield

0.00%

MA: 8Ties: 2ORLY: 0

MAORLY

Historical Fundamentals

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Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

ORLY

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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$5.62

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Exceptional Value Creator

Σ Retained

$31.68B

Δ Market Cap

+$177.96B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

ORLY

$3.32

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Exceptional Value Creator

Σ Retained

$7.27B

Δ Market Cap

+$24.16B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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14.2% Margin of Safety

Price is 14.2% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $489.79

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $571.14

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

ORLY

24.5% Overvalued

Price is 24.5% above estimated fair value

Current Price: $86.84

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $69.74

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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What growth rate is the market pricing in at $490?

+13.0%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +12.0%

The market implies +13.0% Owner Earnings growth, roughly in line with history — reasonably priced.

Standard FCF implies +12.0%, reflecting ongoing growth investment.

ORLY

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $87?

+14.0%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +22.8%

The market implies +14.0% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +22.8%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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99/100

Wide Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. ROIC Consistency is the standout factor.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

ORLY

89/100

Wide Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. Revenue Predictability is the standout factor.

Forensic Accounting

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-2.53

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

ORLY

-2.49

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Ownership Breakdown

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Insiders 0.1%Institutions 91.6%Retail & Other 8.3%

No. of Institutional Holders4,804

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

ORLY

Insiders 0.5%Institutions 89.3%Retail & Other 10.2%

No. of Institutional Holders2,231

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

No open market insider purchases found.

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

ORLY

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

No open market insider purchases found.

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $39.22M

LING HAI

Officer

$4.48M

@ $499.20 · 2026-02-24

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$10.20M

@ $591.00 · 2025-09-02

LING HAI

Officer

$2.69M

@ $600.00 · 2025-08-22

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$10.46M

@ $586.89 · 2025-08-19

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$3.83M

@ $566.46 · 2025-08-05

GENACHOWSKI JULIUS

Director

$178,049

@ $570.67 · 2025-07-07

KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA

Officer

$536,480

@ $560.00 · 2025-06-30

SESHADRI RAJEEV

Officer

$601,447

@ $546.77 · 2025-06-27

GENACHOWSKI JULIUS

Director

$173,910

@ $561.00 · 2025-06-24

KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA

Officer

$536,480

@ $560.00 · 2025-06-24

SESHADRI RAJEEV

Officer

$508,474

@ $535.80 · 2025-06-20

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$5.02M

@ $532.97 · 2025-06-20

SESHADRI RAJEEV

Officer

$1.76M

@ $561.78 · 2025-06-16

KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA

Officer

$549,373

@ $572.86 · 2025-06-13

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$5.55M

@ $588.18 · 2025-06-12

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$8.22M

@ $585.05 · 2025-06-05

ARKELL SANDRA A

Officer

$218,223

@ $577.31 · 2025-05-15

ARKELL SANDRA A

Officer

$257,535

@ $572.30 · 2025-05-12

MIEBACH MICHAEL

Chief Executive Officer

$8.68M

@ $550.16 · 2025-03-26

MCLAUGHLIN EDWARD GRUNDE

Officer

$3.81M

@ $534.68 · 2025-03-19

MIEBACH MICHAEL

Chief Executive Officer

$9.78M

@ $553.76 · 2025-03-05

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$6.12M

@ $556.14 · 2025-03-05

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$6.19M

@ $562.72 · 2025-02-26

MCLAUGHLIN EDWARD GRUNDE

Officer

$6.18M

@ $564.99 · 2025-02-18

MIEBACH MICHAEL

Chief Executive Officer

$10.17M

@ $564.95 · 2025-02-18

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$7.97M

@ $565.00 · 2025-02-18

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$2.36M

@ $500.44 · 2024-11-01

MADABHUSHI VENKATA RAJAMANNAR

Officer

$2.30M

@ $491.03 · 2024-09-27

MADABHUSHI VENKATA RAJAMANNAR

Officer

$2.29M

@ $489.86 · 2024-09-20

ARKELL SANDRA A

Officer

$550,000

@ $500.00 · 2024-09-17

MADABHUSHI VENKATA RAJAMANNAR

Officer

$2.31M

@ $493.10 · 2024-09-13

ARKELL SANDRA A

Officer

$528,000

@ $480.00 · 2024-08-29

MASTERCARD FOUNDATION ASSET MANAGEMENT CORPORATION

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$42.19M

@ $468.80 · 2024-08-22

MASTERCARD FOUNDATION ASSET MANAGEMENT CORPORATION

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$42.03M

@ $467.02 · 2024-08-21

LING HAI

Officer

$1.36M

@ $470.00 · 2024-08-16

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$3.16M

@ $470.00 · 2024-08-16

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$6.11M

@ $455.00 · 2024-08-05

LING HAI

Officer

$1.35M

@ $465.46 · 2024-08-01

ARKELL SANDRA A

Officer

$512,006

@ $465.46 · 2024-08-01

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$4.07M

@ $451.06 · 2024-06-20

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

ORLY

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $20.22M

HENDRICKSON THOMAS T

Director

$105,984

@ $88.32 · 2026-05-29

DUMAS ROBERT ALLEN

Officer

$7.83M

@ $92.60 · 2026-05-20

MURPHY JOHN RAYMOND

Director

$230,099

@ $88.67 · 2026-05-18

BECKHAM BRAD WALTER

Chief Executive Officer

$1.30M

@ $95.00 · 2026-05-08

HOPPER PHILIP M

Officer

$350,038

@ $94.60 · 2026-05-07

SASTRE MARIA AMALIA

Director

$92,681

@ $92.68 · 2026-02-27

MANCINI CHRISTOPHER ANDREW

Officer

$238,585

@ $101.31 · 2025-11-26

HOPPER PHILIP M

Officer

$354,361

@ $101.25 · 2025-11-26

FLETCHER JEREMY ADAM

Chief Financial Officer

$379,500

@ $100.00 · 2025-11-18

WILBANKS CARL DAVID

Officer

$9.07M

@ $102.54 · 2025-08-13

SASTRE MARIA AMALIA

Director

$60,877

@ $102.31 · 2025-08-13

REAVES SHARI LYNNE

Officer

$207,613

@ $103.81 · 2025-08-06

ODEMS RAMON PARISES

Officer

$2.72M

@ $1360.45 · 2025-05-30

MONTELLANO NAJERA JOSE A

Officer

$25,686

@ $1351.89 · 2025-05-29

MURPHY JOHN RAYMOND

Director

$275,800

@ $1379.00 · 2025-05-19

REAVES SHARI LYNNE

Officer

$115,611

@ $1344.31 · 2025-02-27

MANCINI CHRISTOPHER ANDREW

Officer

$2.11M

@ $1354.01 · 2025-02-27

CONN TAMARA F

General Counsel

$2.02M

@ $1326.78 · 2025-02-26

TARRANT JASON LEE

Officer

$2.67M

@ $1339.10 · 2025-02-25

HENSLEE GREGORY L

Chairman of the Board

$11.88M

@ $1319.95 · 2025-02-25

WEISS ANDREA M

Director

$325,184

@ $1311.23 · 2025-02-24

BECKHAM BRAD WALTER

Chief Executive Officer

$1.08M

@ $1300.00 · 2025-02-19

ROGERS CHARLES FRANCIS

Officer

$4.62M

@ $1335.31 · 2025-02-13

DUMAS ROBERT ALLEN

Officer

$6.67M

@ $1334.09 · 2025-02-13

MERZ MARK JOSEPH

Officer

$662,500

@ $1325.00 · 2025-02-12

SASTRE MARIA AMALIA

Director

$326,410

@ $1316.17 · 2025-02-12

CONN TAMARA F

General Counsel

$2.18M

@ $1245.36 · 2024-11-29

LOAFMAN JEFFERY THOMAS

Officer

$769,042

@ $1240.39 · 2024-11-25

WEISS ANDREA M

Director

$734,442

@ $1224.07 · 2024-11-22

O'REILLY DAVID E

Officer and Director

$6.15M

@ $1230.00 · 2024-11-11

KALE JUSTIN CHRISTOPHER

Officer

$119,229

@ $1157.56 · 2024-11-05

MANCINI CHRISTOPHER ANDREW

Officer

$1.75M

@ $1125.00 · 2024-08-27

CONN TAMARA F

General Counsel

$2.27M

@ $1135.00 · 2024-08-15

WILBANKS CARL DAVID

Officer

$5.63M

@ $1125.38 · 2024-08-14

PERLMAN DANA N

Director

$53,268

@ $1109.75 · 2024-08-07

JOHNSON GREGORY DALE

Director

$17.46M

@ $1136.16 · 2024-07-31

MERZ MARK JOSEPH

Officer

$462,560

@ $1120.00 · 2024-07-30

HOPPER PHILIP M

Officer

$1.15M

@ $1122.75 · 2024-07-30

HENSLEE GREGORY L

Chairman of the Board

$20.59M

@ $1127.55 · 2024-07-30

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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😐Neutral(47/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

ORLY

😐Neutral(44/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (47)

ORLY

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (44)

View MA Full Analysis View ORLY Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: MA vs ORLY

Is Mastercard Incorporated or O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, MA trades at a 14.2% margin of safety (intrinsic value $571 vs. price $490), compared to ORLY's -35.0% margin of safety (intrinsic $64 vs. $87).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Mastercard Incorporated or O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.?▼

MA scores 99/100 (Wide moat), while ORLY scores 89/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Which company has better free cash flow, Mastercard Incorporated or O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.?▼

Mastercard Incorporated (MA) generates a 3.7% free cash flow yield, compared to O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.'s 1.8%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Mastercard Incorporated or O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.?▼

MA earns 63.5% ROIC versus ORLY's 30.4%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.