Compare Stocks › MA vs MPC

Mastercard Incorporated (MA) vs Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-06-19, MA is fairly valued at $490, with a DCF intrinsic value of $571 and a margin of safety of 14%. MPC is fairly valued at $243, with an intrinsic value of $292 and a margin of safety of 17%. Of the two, MPC has the wider margin of safety.

Mastercard Incorporated

$489.79

MPC

Marathon Petroleum Corporation

$242.91

Rewards

★Mastercard Incorporated has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
★Gross margin of 100.0% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
★Mastercard Incorporated scores 99/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.

MPC

★Share count has been reduced by 35% over the past 4 years through buybacks, increasing each share's claim on earnings.

Risks

⚠High leverage (1.60x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
⚠12 insider sales with no purchases over the past 12 months — a persistent pattern of insider selling.

MPC

⚠ROIC has declined by 17.3 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
⚠Gross margin of 10.7% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
⚠Buybacks have been poorly timed — 3 out of 4 years involved repurchases at relatively expensive valuations.

Key Valuation Metrics

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MPC

Valuation

$16.15B

Free Cash Flow

$4.77B

3.73%

FCF Yield

6.72%

28.31

Trailing P/E

16.00

21.50

Forward P/E

10.00

Quality & Moat

63.51%

ROIC

6.61%

232.08%

ROE

27.46%

100.00%

Gross Margin

10.74%

1.54

PEG Ratio

1.24

Balance Sheet Safety

1.60

Net Debt / Equity

1.37

N/A

Interest Coverage

N/A

0.50

Net Debt / EBITDA

3.14

0.69%

Dividend Yield

1.60%

MA: 5Ties: 1MPC: 6

MAMPC

Historical Fundamentals

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Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

MPC

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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$5.62

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Exceptional Value Creator

Σ Retained

$31.68B

Δ Market Cap

+$177.96B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

MPC

$-0.36

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Market Cap Declined

Σ Retained

$13.62B

Δ Market Cap

$-4.93B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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14.2% Margin of Safety

Price is 14.2% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $489.79

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $571.14

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

MPC

138.1% Overvalued

Price is 138.1% above estimated fair value

Current Price: $242.91

Strongly undervalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $102.01

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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What growth rate is the market pricing in at $490?

+13.0%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +12.0%

The market implies +13.0% Owner Earnings growth, roughly in line with history — reasonably priced.

Standard FCF implies +12.0%, reflecting ongoing growth investment.

MPC

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $243?

+11.0%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +8.8%

The market implies +11.0% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +8.8%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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99/100

Wide Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. ROIC Consistency is the standout factor.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

MPC

54/100

Narrow Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with roic consistency as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.

Forensic Accounting

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-2.53

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

MPC

-2.87

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Ownership Breakdown

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Insiders 0.1%Institutions 91.6%Retail & Other 8.3%

No. of Institutional Holders4,804

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

MPC

Insiders 0.3%Institutions 78.5%Retail & Other 21.2%

No. of Institutional Holders2,342

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

No open market insider purchases found.

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

MPC

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

HESSLING RICKY D.

Officer

$269,440

@ $134.72 · 2025-03-11

BAYH B EVAN III

Director

$133,700

@ $133.70 · 2025-03-05

CAMPBELL JEFFREY C

Director

$897,644

@ $149.61 · 2024-12-04

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $39.22M

LING HAI

Officer

$4.48M

@ $499.20 · 2026-02-24

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$10.20M

@ $591.00 · 2025-09-02

LING HAI

Officer

$2.69M

@ $600.00 · 2025-08-22

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$10.46M

@ $586.89 · 2025-08-19

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$3.83M

@ $566.46 · 2025-08-05

GENACHOWSKI JULIUS

Director

$178,049

@ $570.67 · 2025-07-07

KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA

Officer

$536,480

@ $560.00 · 2025-06-30

SESHADRI RAJEEV

Officer

$601,447

@ $546.77 · 2025-06-27

GENACHOWSKI JULIUS

Director

$173,910

@ $561.00 · 2025-06-24

KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA

Officer

$536,480

@ $560.00 · 2025-06-24

SESHADRI RAJEEV

Officer

$508,474

@ $535.80 · 2025-06-20

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$5.02M

@ $532.97 · 2025-06-20

SESHADRI RAJEEV

Officer

$1.76M

@ $561.78 · 2025-06-16

KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA

Officer

$549,373

@ $572.86 · 2025-06-13

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$5.55M

@ $588.18 · 2025-06-12

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$8.22M

@ $585.05 · 2025-06-05

ARKELL SANDRA A

Officer

$218,223

@ $577.31 · 2025-05-15

ARKELL SANDRA A

Officer

$257,535

@ $572.30 · 2025-05-12

MIEBACH MICHAEL

Chief Executive Officer

$8.68M

@ $550.16 · 2025-03-26

MCLAUGHLIN EDWARD GRUNDE

Officer

$3.81M

@ $534.68 · 2025-03-19

MIEBACH MICHAEL

Chief Executive Officer

$9.78M

@ $553.76 · 2025-03-05

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$6.12M

@ $556.14 · 2025-03-05

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$6.19M

@ $562.72 · 2025-02-26

MCLAUGHLIN EDWARD GRUNDE

Officer

$6.18M

@ $564.99 · 2025-02-18

MIEBACH MICHAEL

Chief Executive Officer

$10.17M

@ $564.95 · 2025-02-18

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$7.97M

@ $565.00 · 2025-02-18

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$2.36M

@ $500.44 · 2024-11-01

MADABHUSHI VENKATA RAJAMANNAR

Officer

$2.30M

@ $491.03 · 2024-09-27

MADABHUSHI VENKATA RAJAMANNAR

Officer

$2.29M

@ $489.86 · 2024-09-20

ARKELL SANDRA A

Officer

$550,000

@ $500.00 · 2024-09-17

MADABHUSHI VENKATA RAJAMANNAR

Officer

$2.31M

@ $493.10 · 2024-09-13

ARKELL SANDRA A

Officer

$528,000

@ $480.00 · 2024-08-29

MASTERCARD FOUNDATION ASSET MANAGEMENT CORPORATION

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$42.19M

@ $468.80 · 2024-08-22

MASTERCARD FOUNDATION ASSET MANAGEMENT CORPORATION

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$42.03M

@ $467.02 · 2024-08-21

LING HAI

Officer

$1.36M

@ $470.00 · 2024-08-16

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$3.16M

@ $470.00 · 2024-08-16

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$6.11M

@ $455.00 · 2024-08-05

LING HAI

Officer

$1.35M

@ $465.46 · 2024-08-01

ARKELL SANDRA A

Officer

$512,006

@ $465.46 · 2024-08-01

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$4.07M

@ $451.06 · 2024-06-20

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

MPC

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $7.11M

HENSCHEN MICHAEL A II

Officer

$1.70M

@ $268.82 · 2026-06-04

HESSLING RICKY D.

Officer

$250,000

@ $250.00 · 2026-05-13

HESSLING RICKY D.

Officer

$371,021

@ $228.18 · 2026-03-13

HESSLING RICKY D.

Officer

$644,401

@ $226.34 · 2026-03-12

HENSCHEN MICHAEL A II

Officer

$1.07M

@ $202.32 · 2026-02-12

BENSON MOLLY R.

Officer

$1.77M

@ $163.00 · 2025-08-15

RUCKER KIM K. W.

Director

$1.29M

@ $175.00 · 2025-07-03

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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😐Neutral(47/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

MPC

😐Neutral(56/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (47)

MPC

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (56)

View MA Full Analysis View MPC Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: MA vs MPC

Is Mastercard Incorporated or Marathon Petroleum Corporation more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, MPC trades at a 16.9% margin of safety (intrinsic value $292 vs. price $243), compared to MA's 14.2% margin of safety (intrinsic $571 vs. $490).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Mastercard Incorporated or Marathon Petroleum Corporation?▼

MA scores 99/100 (Wide moat), while MPC scores 54/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Which company has better free cash flow, Mastercard Incorporated or Marathon Petroleum Corporation?▼

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) generates a 6.7% free cash flow yield, compared to Mastercard Incorporated's 3.7%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Mastercard Incorporated or Marathon Petroleum Corporation?▼

MA earns 63.5% ROIC versus MPC's 6.6%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Mastercard Incorporated's or Marathon Petroleum Corporation's?▼

MPC's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to MA's 94/100 (Very Safe). MPC has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.