Compare Stocks › HD vs MA

The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) vs Mastercard Incorporated (MA): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-06-19, HD is overvalued at $334, with a DCF intrinsic value of $250 and a margin of safety of -34%. MA is fairly valued at $490, with an intrinsic value of $571 and a margin of safety of 14%. Of the two, MA has the wider margin of safety.

The Home Depot, Inc.

$334.28

Mastercard Incorporated

$489.79

Rewards

★The Home Depot, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
★The Home Depot, Inc. scores 87/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with margin stability as the strongest competitive dimension.
★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.

★Mastercard Incorporated has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
★Gross margin of 100.0% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
★Mastercard Incorporated scores 99/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.

Risks

⚠High leverage (4.48x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
⚠11 insider sales with no purchases over the past 12 months — a persistent pattern of insider selling.

⚠High leverage (1.60x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
⚠12 insider sales with no purchases over the past 12 months — a persistent pattern of insider selling.

Key Valuation Metrics

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Valuation

$10.13B

Free Cash Flow

$16.15B

3.04%

FCF Yield

3.73%

23.72

Trailing P/E

28.31

20.75

Forward P/E

21.50

Quality & Moat

20.22%

ROIC

63.51%

128.38%

ROE

232.08%

33.13%

Gross Margin

100.00%

1.90

PEG Ratio

1.54

Balance Sheet Safety

4.48

Net Debt / Equity

1.60

N/A

Interest Coverage

N/A

2.49

Net Debt / EBITDA

0.50

2.76%

Dividend Yield

0.69%

HD: 2Ties: 2MA: 8

HDMA

Historical Fundamentals

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Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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$-1.09

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Market Cap Declined

Σ Retained

$17.64B

Δ Market Cap

$-19.32B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

$5.62

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Exceptional Value Creator

Σ Retained

$31.68B

Δ Market Cap

+$177.96B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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33.5% Overvalued

Price is 33.5% above estimated fair value

Current Price: $334.28

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $250.30

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

14.2% Margin of Safety

Price is 14.2% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $489.79

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $571.14

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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What growth rate is the market pricing in at $334?

+11.8%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +16.8%

The market implies +11.8% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +16.8%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $490?

+13.0%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +12.0%

The market implies +13.0% Owner Earnings growth, roughly in line with history — reasonably priced.

Standard FCF implies +12.0%, reflecting ongoing growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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87/100

Wide Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. Margin Stability is the standout factor.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

99/100

Wide Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. ROIC Consistency is the standout factor.

Forensic Accounting

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-2.40

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

-2.53

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Ownership Breakdown

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Insiders 0.1%Institutions 76.1%Retail & Other 23.8%

No. of Institutional Holders5,106

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insiders 0.1%Institutions 91.6%Retail & Other 8.3%

No. of Institutional Holders4,804

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

BRENNEMAN GREGORY D

Director

$999,767

@ $346.66 · 2025-03-14

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

No open market insider purchases found.

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $23.56M

MCPHAIL RICHARD V

Chief Financial Officer

$940,670

@ $368.89 · 2026-03-04

DEATON JOHN A.

Officer

$661,617

@ $369.00 · 2026-03-04

ROSEBOROUGH TERESA WYNN

General Counsel

$1.00M

@ $348.52 · 2025-12-26

BROWN ANGIE

Chief Technology Officer

$695,948

@ $357.63 · 2025-12-12

BASTEK WILLIAM D

Officer

$974,445

@ $423.12 · 2025-09-12

ROSEBOROUGH TERESA WYNN

General Counsel

$2.27M

@ $413.23 · 2025-08-22

BASTEK WILLIAM D

Officer

$1.55M

@ $410.23 · 2025-08-22

DECKER EDWARD P.

Chief Executive Officer

$13.07M

@ $397.22 · 2025-08-21

BROWN ANGIE

Chief Technology Officer

$404,070

@ $404.07 · 2025-08-20

MCPHAIL RICHARD V

Chief Financial Officer

$1.36M

@ $403.66 · 2025-08-20

PADILLA HECTOR A

Officer

$640,609

@ $404.17 · 2025-08-20

DEATON JOHN A.

Officer

$3.29M

@ $369.99 · 2025-06-03

ROSEBOROUGH TERESA WYNN

General Counsel

$2.00M

@ $369.28 · 2025-05-28

SIDDIQUI FAHIM

Chief Technology Officer

$954,564

@ $367.14 · 2025-05-22

BASTEK WILLIAM D

Officer

$1.24M

@ $416.61 · 2024-11-22

HOURIGAN TIMOTHY A

Officer

$6.55M

@ $409.52 · 2024-11-18

ROSEBOROUGH TERESA WYNN

General Counsel

$9.03M

@ $408.91 · 2024-11-14

PADILLA HECTOR A

Officer

$1.48M

@ $408.96 · 2024-11-14

CAMPBELL ANN-MARIE

Officer

$12.24M

@ $408.40 · 2024-11-14

MCPHAIL RICHARD V

Chief Financial Officer

$2.65M

@ $408.45 · 2024-11-13

SCARDINO KIMBERLY R.

Officer

$617,100

@ $363.00 · 2024-08-19

ROSEBOROUGH TERESA WYNN

General Counsel

$1.87M

@ $359.32 · 2024-08-15

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $39.22M

LING HAI

Officer

$4.48M

@ $499.20 · 2026-02-24

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$10.20M

@ $591.00 · 2025-09-02

LING HAI

Officer

$2.69M

@ $600.00 · 2025-08-22

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$10.46M

@ $586.89 · 2025-08-19

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$3.83M

@ $566.46 · 2025-08-05

GENACHOWSKI JULIUS

Director

$178,049

@ $570.67 · 2025-07-07

KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA

Officer

$536,480

@ $560.00 · 2025-06-30

SESHADRI RAJEEV

Officer

$601,447

@ $546.77 · 2025-06-27

GENACHOWSKI JULIUS

Director

$173,910

@ $561.00 · 2025-06-24

KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA

Officer

$536,480

@ $560.00 · 2025-06-24

SESHADRI RAJEEV

Officer

$508,474

@ $535.80 · 2025-06-20

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$5.02M

@ $532.97 · 2025-06-20

SESHADRI RAJEEV

Officer

$1.76M

@ $561.78 · 2025-06-16

KIRKPATRICK LINDA PISTECCHIA

Officer

$549,373

@ $572.86 · 2025-06-13

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$5.55M

@ $588.18 · 2025-06-12

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$8.22M

@ $585.05 · 2025-06-05

ARKELL SANDRA A

Officer

$218,223

@ $577.31 · 2025-05-15

ARKELL SANDRA A

Officer

$257,535

@ $572.30 · 2025-05-12

MIEBACH MICHAEL

Chief Executive Officer

$8.68M

@ $550.16 · 2025-03-26

MCLAUGHLIN EDWARD GRUNDE

Officer

$3.81M

@ $534.68 · 2025-03-19

MIEBACH MICHAEL

Chief Executive Officer

$9.78M

@ $553.76 · 2025-03-05

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$6.12M

@ $556.14 · 2025-03-05

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$6.19M

@ $562.72 · 2025-02-26

MCLAUGHLIN EDWARD GRUNDE

Officer

$6.18M

@ $564.99 · 2025-02-18

MIEBACH MICHAEL

Chief Executive Officer

$10.17M

@ $564.95 · 2025-02-18

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$7.97M

@ $565.00 · 2025-02-18

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$2.36M

@ $500.44 · 2024-11-01

MADABHUSHI VENKATA RAJAMANNAR

Officer

$2.30M

@ $491.03 · 2024-09-27

MADABHUSHI VENKATA RAJAMANNAR

Officer

$2.29M

@ $489.86 · 2024-09-20

ARKELL SANDRA A

Officer

$550,000

@ $500.00 · 2024-09-17

MADABHUSHI VENKATA RAJAMANNAR

Officer

$2.31M

@ $493.10 · 2024-09-13

ARKELL SANDRA A

Officer

$528,000

@ $480.00 · 2024-08-29

MASTERCARD FOUNDATION ASSET MANAGEMENT CORPORATION

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$42.19M

@ $468.80 · 2024-08-22

MASTERCARD FOUNDATION ASSET MANAGEMENT CORPORATION

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$42.03M

@ $467.02 · 2024-08-21

LING HAI

Officer

$1.36M

@ $470.00 · 2024-08-16

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$3.16M

@ $470.00 · 2024-08-16

SACHIN J. MEHRA

Chief Financial Officer

$6.11M

@ $455.00 · 2024-08-05

LING HAI

Officer

$1.35M

@ $465.46 · 2024-08-01

ARKELL SANDRA A

Officer

$512,006

@ $465.46 · 2024-08-01

VOSBURG CRAIG

Officer

$4.07M

@ $451.06 · 2024-06-20

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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😐Neutral(51/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

😐Neutral(47/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (51)

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (47)

View HD Full Analysis View MA Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: HD vs MA

Is The Home Depot, Inc. or Mastercard Incorporated more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, MA trades at a 14.2% margin of safety (intrinsic value $571 vs. price $490), compared to HD's -33.5% margin of safety (intrinsic $250 vs. $334).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, The Home Depot, Inc. or Mastercard Incorporated?▼

MA scores 99/100 (Wide moat), while HD scores 87/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Which company has better free cash flow, The Home Depot, Inc. or Mastercard Incorporated?▼

Mastercard Incorporated (MA) generates a 3.7% free cash flow yield, compared to The Home Depot, Inc.'s 3.0%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, The Home Depot, Inc. or Mastercard Incorporated?▼

MA earns 63.5% ROIC versus HD's 20.2%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, The Home Depot, Inc.'s or Mastercard Incorporated's?▼

MA's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to HD's 69/100 (Safe). MA has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.