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LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB) vs UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-08-03, LYB is undervalued at $62, with a DCF intrinsic value of $14933719042 and a margin of safety of 100%. UNH is overvalued at $414, with an intrinsic value of $371 and a margin of safety of -12%. Of the two, LYB has the wider margin of safety.

LYB
LyondellBasell Industries NV
$62.08
VS
UNH
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
$414.40

Rewards

LYB
    UNH
    • ★UnitedHealth Group Incorporated scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.

    Risks

    LYB
    • ⚠ROIC has declined by 13.6 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
    • ⚠Gross margin of 12.9% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
    • ⚠Altman Z-Score of 1.42 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
    UNH
    • ⚠ROIC has declined by 6.9 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
    • ⚠Gross margin of 19.5% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
    • ⚠FCF yield of 6.0% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.

    Key Valuation Metrics

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    LYB
    UNH
    Valuation
    $1.23B
    Free Cash Flow
    $22.76B
    N/A
    FCF Yield
    6.05%
    N/A
    Trailing P/E
    31.25
    9.65
    Forward P/E
    18.47
    Quality & Moat
    17.58%
    ROIC
    14.15%
    -2.27%
    ROE
    14.15%
    12.89%
    Gross Margin
    19.51%
    1.53
    PEG Ratio
    1.28
    Balance Sheet Safety
    1.08
    Net Debt / Equity
    0.40
    N/A
    Interest Coverage
    N/A
    3.27
    Net Debt / EBITDA
    1.73
    6.64%
    Dividend Yield
    2.24%
    LYB: 3Ties: 1UNH: 6
    LYBUNH

    Historical Fundamentals

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    LYB

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    UNH

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    $1 Retained Earnings Test

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    LYB
    N/A
    Net losses over 3 years — test not applicable
    Company had negative cumulative retained earnings
    Σ Retained
    $-2.37B
    Δ Market Cap
    $-39.73
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
    UNH
    $-7.37
    created per $1 retained over 3 years
    Market Cap Declined
    Σ Retained
    $26.63B
    Δ Market Cap
    $-196.16B
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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    LYB
    100.0% Margin of Safety
    Price is 100.0% below estimated fair value
    Current Price: $62.08
    Fair Value: $29584444697.22
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued
    UNH
    11.7% Overvalued
    Price is 11.7% above estimated fair value
    Current Price: $414.40
    Fair Value: $370.88
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued

    Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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    LYB

    What growth rate is the market pricing in at $62?

    -2.6%
    Market-Implied FCF Growth Rate

    Market pricing in significantly higher growth than history — aggressive.

    UNH

    What growth rate is the market pricing in at $414?

    +14.4%
    Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
    Standard FCF implies +6.6%

    The market implies +14.4% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

    Standard FCF implies a demanding +6.6%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

    Economic Moat Score

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    LYB
    32/100
    No Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    No durable moat detected, though reinvestment efficiency shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
    UNH
    73/100
    Wide Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

    Forensic Accounting

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    LYB
    -2.83
    Unlikely Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
    UNH
    -2.45
    Unlikely Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Ownership Breakdown

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    LYB
    Insiders 20.1%Institutions 78.0%Retail & Other 1.9%
    No. of Institutional Holders1,238
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
    UNH
    Insiders 0.2%Institutions 86.1%Retail & Other 13.6%
    No. of Institutional Holders4,164
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    Insider Buying Activity

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    LYB
    0
    Buys (3M)
    1
    Buys (12M)
    Total value (12M): $246,621
    FOLEY KIMBERLY A
    Officer
    $246,621
    @ $43.56 · 2025-11-12
    HANLEY MICHAEL SEAN
    Director
    $199,535
    @ $57.01 · 2025-05-05
    HANLEY MICHAEL SEAN
    Director
    $270,196
    @ $72.05 · 2025-03-12
    BUCHANAN ROBIN WILLIAM TURNBULL
    Director
    $380,300
    @ $76.06 · 2024-12-13
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
    UNH
    0
    Buys (3M)
    0
    Buys (12M)
    REX JOHN F
    President
    $5.00M
    @ $291.12 · 2025-05-16
    HEMSLEY STEPHEN J
    Chief Executive Officer
    $25.02M
    @ $288.57 · 2025-05-16
    GIL KRISTEN
    Director
    $1.00M
    @ $271.17 · 2025-05-15
    FLYNN TIMOTHY PATRICK
    Director
    $491,786
    @ $320.80 · 2025-05-14
    NOSEWORTHY JOHN H
    Director
    $93,647
    @ $312.16 · 2025-05-14
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

    Insider Selling Activity

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    LYB
    1
    Sells (3M)
    2
    Sells (12M)
    Total value (12M): $1.81M
    KAPLAN JEFFREY A
    Officer
    $741,573
    @ $74.16 · 2026-05-13
    VANACKER PETER Z E
    Chief Executive Officer
    $1.07M
    @ $53.57 · 2025-08-15
    FRIEDRICHS DALE D
    Officer
    $480,997
    @ $96.78 · 2024-08-20
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
    UNH
    0
    Sells (3M)
    1
    Sells (12M)
    Total value (12M): $284,000
    CONWAY PATRICK HUGH
    Officer
    $284,000
    @ $355.00 · 2026-04-23
    CONWAY PATRICK HUGH
    Chief Executive Officer
    $179,645
    @ $305.00 · 2025-06-10
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

    🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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    LYB
    FearGreed
    😐Neutral(49/100)

    "Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
    UNH
    FearGreed
    😐Neutral(57/100)

    "Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    ⚖️ Buffett Signal

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    LYB
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (49)
    UNH
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (57)
    View LYB Full AnalysisView UNH Full Analysis

    Frequently Asked Questions: LYB vs UNH

    Is LyondellBasell Industries NV or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated more undervalued in 2026?▼

    Based on our discounted cash flow model, LYB trades at a 100.0% margin of safety (intrinsic value $14933719042 vs. price $62), compared to UNH's -11.7% margin of safety (intrinsic $371 vs. $414).

    Which stock has a wider economic moat, LyondellBasell Industries NV or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated?▼

    UNH scores 73/100 (Wide moat), while LYB scores 32/100 (None moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

    Is LyondellBasell Industries NV in financial distress?▼

    LYB's Altman Z-Score of 1.4 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. UNH scores 2.9 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

    Which stock has higher return on invested capital, LyondellBasell Industries NV or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated?▼

    LYB earns 17.6% ROIC versus UNH's 14.1%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

    Which dividend is safer, LyondellBasell Industries NV's or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's?▼

    UNH's dividend earns a safety score of 84/100 (Very Safe), compared to LYB's 41/100 (Borderline). UNH has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.

    LYB vs UNH: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026? | SafetyMargin.io