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LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) vs UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-11-01, LYB is overvalued at $69, with a DCF intrinsic value of $50 and a margin of safety of -37%. UNH is overvalued at $407, with an intrinsic value of $367 and a margin of safety of -11%. Of the two, UNH has the wider margin of safety.

LYB
LyondellBasell Industries N.V.
$68.64
VS
UNH
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
$406.97

Rewards

LYB
  • ★FCF yield of 8.0% is historically attractive — the business generates significant cash relative to its price.
UNH
  • ★UnitedHealth Group Incorporated scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.

Risks

LYB
  • ⚠ROIC has declined by 13.6 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
  • ⚠Gross margin of 14.6% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
  • ⚠Altman Z-Score of 1.77 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
UNH
  • ⚠ROIC has declined by 6.9 percentage points over the past 4 years, which may signal competitive erosion.
  • ⚠Gross margin of 20.0% is low, suggesting a competitive or commodity-like market with limited pricing power.
  • ⚠FCF yield of 7.3% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.

Key Valuation Metrics

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LYB
UNH
Valuation
$1.78B
Free Cash Flow
$26.50B
8.02%
FCF Yield
7.25%
N/A
Trailing P/E
23.23
10.83
Forward P/E
17.48
Quality & Moat
13.49%
ROIC
11.51%
12.18%
ROE
15.77%
14.56%
Gross Margin
20.05%
1.53
PEG Ratio
1.03
Balance Sheet Safety
0.92
Net Debt / Equity
0.43
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
2.47
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.58
4.02%
Dividend Yield
2.28%
LYB: 4Ties: 1UNH: 6
LYBUNH

Historical Fundamentals

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LYB

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

UNH

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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LYB
N/A
Net losses over 3 years — test not applicable
Company had negative cumulative retained earnings
Σ Retained
$-2.37B
Δ Market Cap
$-13.12B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
UNH
$-7.37
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Market Cap Declined
Σ Retained
$26.63B
Δ Market Cap
$-196.16B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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LYB
28.0% Margin of Safety
Price is 28.0% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $68.64
Fair Value: $95.31
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
UNH
10.8% Overvalued
Price is 10.8% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $406.97
Fair Value: $367.30
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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LYB

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $69?

+6.5%
Market-Implied FCF Growth Rate

Market pricing in significantly higher growth than history — aggressive.

UNH

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $407?

+14.2%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +4.2%

The market implies +14.2% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +4.2%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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LYB
32/100
No Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

No durable moat detected, though reinvestment efficiency shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.
UNH
73/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by revenue predictability. Margin Stability is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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LYB
-2.83
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
UNH
-2.45
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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LYB
Insiders 20.1%Institutions 76.1%Retail & Other 3.8%
No. of Institutional Holders1,259
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
UNH
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 89.6%Retail & Other 10.1%
No. of Institutional Holders4,333
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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LYB
0
Buys (3M)
1
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $246,621
FOLEY KIMBERLY A
Officer
$246,621
@ $43.56 · 2025-11-12
HANLEY MICHAEL SEAN
Director
$199,535
@ $57.01 · 2025-05-05
HANLEY MICHAEL SEAN
Director
$270,196
@ $72.05 · 2025-03-12
BUCHANAN ROBIN WILLIAM TURNBULL
Director
$380,300
@ $76.06 · 2024-12-13
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
UNH
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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LYB
0
Sells (3M)
1
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $741,573
KAPLAN JEFFREY A
Officer
$741,573
@ $74.16 · 2026-05-13
VANACKER PETER Z E
Chief Executive Officer
$1.07M
@ $53.57 · 2025-08-15
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
UNH
2
Sells (3M)
3
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $944,910
CONWAY PATRICK HUGH
Officer
$455,910
@ $390.00 · 2026-08-21
CONWAY PATRICK HUGH
Officer
$205,000
@ $410.00 · 2026-08-05
CONWAY PATRICK HUGH
Officer
$284,000
@ $355.00 · 2026-04-23
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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LYB
FearGreed
😐Neutral(60/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
UNH
FearGreed
😏Greed(62/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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LYB
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (60)
UNH
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (62)
View LYB Full AnalysisView UNH Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: LYB vs UNH

Is LyondellBasell Industries N.V. or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, UNH trades at a -10.8% margin of safety (intrinsic value $367 vs. price $407), compared to LYB's -37.3% margin of safety (intrinsic $50 vs. $69).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, LyondellBasell Industries N.V. or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated?▼

UNH scores 73/100 (Wide moat), while LYB scores 32/100 (None moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is LyondellBasell Industries N.V. in financial distress?▼

LYB's Altman Z-Score of 1.8 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. UNH scores 2.9 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which company has better free cash flow, LyondellBasell Industries N.V. or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated?▼

LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) generates a 8.0% free cash flow yield, compared to UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's 7.3%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, LyondellBasell Industries N.V. or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated?▼

LYB earns 13.5% ROIC versus UNH's 11.5%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, LyondellBasell Industries N.V.'s or UnitedHealth Group Incorporated's?▼

UNH's dividend earns a safety score of 84/100 (Very Safe), compared to LYB's 41/100 (Borderline). UNH has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.