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Compare Stocks › LLY vs YUM

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) vs Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-06-19, LLY is fairly valued at $1099, with a DCF intrinsic value of $1143 and a margin of safety of 4%. YUM is overvalued at $152, with an intrinsic value of $99 and a margin of safety of -53%. Of the two, LLY has the wider margin of safety.

LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
$1098.57
VS
YUM
Yum! Brands, Inc.
$151.99

Rewards

LLY
  • ★Eli Lilly and Company has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Gross margin of 82.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Eli Lilly and Company scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
YUM
  • ★Yum! Brands, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Yum! Brands, Inc. scores 88/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with revenue predictability as the strongest competitive dimension.
  • ★Free cash flow has grown at a 12.6% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.

Risks

LLY
  • ⚠FCF yield of 0.9% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
  • ⚠Insiders have sold $18.6M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
YUM
  • ⚠Net debt/EBITDA of 4.2x indicates heavy leverage — it would take over 4 years of EBITDA to pay off net debt.
  • ⚠9 insider sales totaling $1.9M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.

Key Valuation Metrics

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LLY
YUM
Valuation
$9.16B
Free Cash Flow
$1.26B
0.93%
FCF Yield
3.01%
39.00
Trailing P/E
24.51
24.69
Forward P/E
20.30
Quality & Moat
37.80%
ROIC
15.85%
107.46%
ROE
N/A
82.83%
Gross Margin
45.66%
1.50
PEG Ratio
1.95
Balance Sheet Safety
1.22
Net Debt / Equity
N/A
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
1.05
Net Debt / EBITDA
4.16
0.56%
Dividend Yield
1.90%
LLY: 5Ties: 1YUM: 4
LLYYUM

Historical Fundamentals

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LLY

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

YUM

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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LLY
$27.49
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$22.34B
Δ Market Cap
+$614.01B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
YUM
$2.47
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$2.42B
Δ Market Cap
+$5.98B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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LLY
3.9% Margin of Safety
Price is 3.9% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $1098.57
Fair Value: $1143.11
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
YUM
53.0% Overvalued
Price is 53.0% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $151.99
Fair Value: $99.37
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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LLY

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $1099?

+20.0%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +31.4%

The market implies +20.0% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding +31.4%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

YUM

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $152?

+15.3%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +18.2%

The market implies +15.3% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +18.2%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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LLY
73/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.
YUM
88/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat with strength across all dimensions. Revenue Predictability is the standout factor.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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LLY
-1.83
Possible Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
YUM
-2.58
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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LLY
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 85.3%Retail & Other 14.5%
No. of Institutional Holders5,580
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
YUM
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 89.7%Retail & Other 10.1%
No. of Institutional Holders1,891
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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LLY
0
Buys (3M)
8
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $4.54M
MONTARCE LUCAS E
Chief Financial Officer
$494,627
@ $691.79 · 2025-08-15
VAN NAARDEN JACOB S.
Officer
$647,360
@ $647.36 · 2025-08-13
ALVAREZ RALPH
Director
$500,473
@ $660.25 · 2025-08-13
FYRWALD J. ERIK
Director
$1.01M
@ $642.33 · 2025-08-12
RICKS DAVID A
Chief Executive Officer
$1.05M
@ $644.77 · 2025-08-12
SKOVRONSKY DANIEL
Officer
$634,405
@ $634.40 · 2025-08-12
SULZBERGER GABRIELLE
Director
$75,018
@ $641.18 · 2025-08-12
JACKSON JAMERE
Director
$127,913
@ $639.57 · 2025-08-08
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
YUM
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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LLY
2
Sells (3M)
41
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $3.86B
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$2.88M
@ $1150.77 · 2026-06-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$15.75M
@ $995.36 · 2026-05-06
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$322.38M
@ $1103.48 · 2026-01-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$1.51M
@ $1085.01 · 2026-01-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.90M
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-29
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$2.85M
@ $1085.17 · 2025-12-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260,409
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-23
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.08M
@ $1095.35 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$17.34M
@ $1109.30 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$152.06M
@ $1068.52 · 2025-11-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$111.50M
@ $1058.66 · 2025-11-21
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$39.07M
@ $1051.66 · 2025-11-20
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$176.10M
@ $1051.17 · 2025-11-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$62.31M
@ $1034.78 · 2025-11-18
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$10.19M
@ $1030.68 · 2025-11-17
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$183.33M
@ $1028.25 · 2025-11-14
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$1.01M
@ $1010.50 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$48.02M
@ $1030.26 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$308.41M
@ $1011.18 · 2025-11-12
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$279.35M
@ $986.64 · 2025-11-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$16.41M
@ $972.52 · 2025-11-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$167.09M
@ $933.26 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$38.47M
@ $951.56 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$479,038
@ $910.72 · 2025-11-04
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$266.65M
@ $888.83 · 2025-11-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260.17M
@ $863.35 · 2025-10-31
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.16M
@ $863.24 · 2025-10-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$9.04M
@ $852.49 · 2025-10-09
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.23M
@ $850.27 · 2025-10-08
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$22.72M
@ $848.01 · 2025-10-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$137.04M
@ $850.22 · 2025-10-06
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.22M
@ $837.93 · 2025-10-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$92.50M
@ $821.55 · 2025-10-02
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$107.36M
@ $794.15 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$177.29M
@ $821.47 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.79M
@ $763.39 · 2025-09-30
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$18.06M
@ $763.09 · 2025-09-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$81.53M
@ $764.65 · 2025-09-18
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$734,930
@ $734.93 · 2025-08-28
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$783,762
@ $627.01 · 2025-08-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$225.42M
@ $805.07 · 2025-07-24
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$716,410
@ $716.41 · 2025-05-27
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$936,550
@ $749.24 · 2025-05-14
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
YUM
9
Sells (3M)
31
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $14.58M
TURNER CHRISTOPHER LEE
Chief Executive Officer
$39,998
@ $148.14 · 2026-06-01
MEZVINSKY SCOTT
Officer
$38,665
@ $148.14 · 2026-06-01
TRESVANT SEAN
Officer
$464,040
@ $154.68 · 2026-05-26
POWELL AARON
Officer
$914,252
@ $152.35 · 2026-05-19
SKEANS TRACY L
Chief Operating Officer
$279,224
@ $152.00 · 2026-05-15
TURNER CHRISTOPHER LEE
Chief Executive Officer
$40,120
@ $160.48 · 2026-05-01
MEZVINSKY SCOTT
Officer
$44,453
@ $160.48 · 2026-05-01
TURNER CHRISTOPHER LEE
Chief Executive Officer
$39,624
@ $154.18 · 2026-04-01
MEZVINSKY SCOTT
Officer
$41,783
@ $154.18 · 2026-04-01
TURNER CHRISTOPHER LEE
Chief Executive Officer
$39,577
@ $166.29 · 2026-03-02
MEZVINSKY SCOTT
Officer
$47,725
@ $166.29 · 2026-03-02
TURNER CHRISTOPHER LEE
Chief Executive Officer
$40,177
@ $166.02 · 2026-02-26
MEZVINSKY SCOTT
Officer
$47,150
@ $166.02 · 2026-02-26
MEZVINSKY SCOTT
Officer
$265,384
@ $164.63 · 2026-02-13
POWELL AARON
Officer
$1.94M
@ $161.44 · 2026-02-05
MEZVINSKY SCOTT
Officer
$42,275
@ $153.17 · 2025-12-01
SKEANS TRACY L
Chief Operating Officer
$3.63M
@ $149.10 · 2025-11-17
POWELL AARON
Officer
$419,839
@ $150.48 · 2025-11-11
MEZVINSKY SCOTT
Officer
$261,162
@ $148.81 · 2025-11-06
BURKHARDT ERIKA
Officer
$189,551
@ $149.37 · 2025-11-05
MEZVINSKY SCOTT
Officer
$42,116
@ $154.27 · 2025-11-05
MEZVINSKY SCOTT
Officer
$41,962
@ $152.59 · 2025-10-01
GIBBS DAVID W
Chief Executive Officer
$1.07M
@ $149.80 · 2025-09-15
MEZVINSKY SCOTT
Officer
$39,223
@ $145.27 · 2025-09-02
GIBBS DAVID W
Chief Executive Officer
$1.04M
@ $146.84 · 2025-08-15
SKEANS TRACY L
Chief Operating Officer
$1.81M
@ $148.24 · 2025-08-15
GRADDICK-WEIR MIRIAN M
Director
$296,121
@ $145.30 · 2025-08-14
MEZVINSKY SCOTT
Officer
$36,799
@ $139.92 · 2025-08-06
CORNELL BRIAN C
Director
$291,034
@ $139.92 · 2025-08-06
GIBBS DAVID W
Chief Executive Officer
$1.04M
@ $146.60 · 2025-07-15
MEZVINSKY SCOTT
Officer
$40,332
@ $148.28 · 2025-07-01
GIBBS DAVID W
Chief Executive Officer
$1.01M
@ $144.00 · 2025-06-16
MEZVINSKY SCOTT
Officer
$39,120
@ $145.97 · 2025-06-04
GIBBS DAVID W
Chief Executive Officer
$1.03M
@ $145.57 · 2025-05-15
GIBBS DAVID W
Chief Executive Officer
$753,891
@ $146.70 · 2025-04-15
GIBBS DAVID W
Chief Executive Officer
$816,392
@ $154.24 · 2025-03-17
BURKHARDT ERIKA
Officer
$94,965
@ $159.07 · 2025-03-06
GIBBS DAVID W
Chief Executive Officer
$384,480
@ $160.00 · 2025-03-06
RUSSELL DAVID ERIC
Officer
$793,300
@ $158.66 · 2025-03-05
GIBBS DAVID W
Chief Executive Officer
$4.88M
@ $159.46 · 2025-03-05
RUSSELL DAVID ERIC
Officer
$2.64M
@ $144.63 · 2025-02-10
SKALA JUSTIN PETER
Director
$221,261
@ $145.28 · 2025-02-10
GIBBS DAVID W
Chief Executive Officer
$522,884
@ $137.06 · 2024-12-16
GIBBS DAVID W
Chief Executive Officer
$446,130
@ $137.06 · 2024-12-16
GIBBS DAVID W
Chief Executive Officer
$959,600
@ $135.94 · 2024-11-15
GIBBS DAVID W
Chief Executive Officer
$941,682
@ $134.43 · 2024-10-15
GIBBS DAVID W
Chief Executive Officer
$941,682
@ $134.43 · 2024-09-16
GRADDICK-WEIR MIRIAN M
Director
$179,857
@ $137.40 · 2024-08-19
GIBBS DAVID W
Chief Executive Officer
$974,956
@ $137.92 · 2024-08-15
CATLETT SCOTT A
Officer
$1.13M
@ $137.79 · 2024-08-13
SAMI SABIR
Officer
$9.75M
@ $137.16 · 2024-08-07
GIBBS DAVID W
Chief Executive Officer
$912,030
@ $131.02 · 2024-07-15
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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LLY
FearGreed
😏Greed(61/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
YUM
FearGreed
😐Neutral(56/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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LLY
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (61)
YUM
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (56)
View LLY Full AnalysisView YUM Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: LLY vs YUM

Is Eli Lilly and Company or Yum! Brands, Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, LLY trades at a 3.9% margin of safety (intrinsic value $1143 vs. price $1099), compared to YUM's -53.0% margin of safety (intrinsic $99 vs. $152).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Eli Lilly and Company or Yum! Brands, Inc.?▼

YUM scores 88/100 (Wide moat), while LLY scores 73/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is Yum! Brands, Inc. in financial distress?▼

YUM's Altman Z-Score of 2.5 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. LLY scores 8.7 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which company has better free cash flow, Eli Lilly and Company or Yum! Brands, Inc.?▼

Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM) generates a 3.0% free cash flow yield, compared to Eli Lilly and Company's 0.9%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Eli Lilly and Company or Yum! Brands, Inc.?▼

LLY earns 37.8% ROIC versus YUM's 15.9%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Eli Lilly and Company's or Yum! Brands, Inc.'s?▼

YUM's dividend earns a safety score of 84/100 (Very Safe), compared to LLY's 64/100 (Safe). YUM has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.

LLY vs YUM: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026? | SafetyMargin.io