Compare Stocks › LLY vs WM

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) vs Waste Management, Inc. (WM): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-06-19, LLY is fairly valued at $1099, with a DCF intrinsic value of $1143 and a margin of safety of 4%. WM is overvalued at $215, with an intrinsic value of $137 and a margin of safety of -57%. Of the two, LLY has the wider margin of safety.

LLY

Eli Lilly and Company

$1098.57

Waste Management, Inc.

$214.60

Rewards

LLY

★Eli Lilly and Company has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
★Gross margin of 82.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
★Eli Lilly and Company scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.

★Waste Management, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
★Waste Management, Inc. scores 81/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with margin stability as the strongest competitive dimension.
★Free cash flow has grown at a 13.1% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.

Risks

LLY

⚠FCF yield of 0.9% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
⚠Insiders have sold $18.6M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.

⚠PEG ratio of 2.23 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.
⚠High leverage (2.27x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.

Key Valuation Metrics

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LLY

Valuation

$9.16B

Free Cash Flow

$2.82B

0.93%

FCF Yield

3.27%

39.00

Trailing P/E

31.06

24.69

Forward P/E

23.21

Quality & Moat

37.80%

ROIC

10.69%

107.46%

ROE

29.94%

82.83%

Gross Margin

40.61%

1.50

PEG Ratio

2.23

Balance Sheet Safety

1.22

Net Debt / Equity

2.27

N/A

Interest Coverage

N/A

1.05

Net Debt / EBITDA

2.97

0.56%

Dividend Yield

1.62%

LLY: 7Ties: 1WM: 4

LLYWM

Historical Fundamentals

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LLY

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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LLY

$27.49

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Exceptional Value Creator

Σ Retained

$22.34B

Δ Market Cap

+$614.01B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

$6.02

created per $1 retained over 3 years

Exceptional Value Creator

Σ Retained

$4.08B

Δ Market Cap

+$24.54B

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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LLY

3.9% Margin of Safety

Price is 3.9% below estimated fair value

Current Price: $1098.57

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $1143.11

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

56.7% Overvalued

Price is 56.7% above estimated fair value

Current Price: $214.60

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Fair Value: $136.97

Strongly undervalued

Undervalued

Fairly valued

Overvalued

Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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LLY

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $1099?

+20.0%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +31.4%

The market implies +20.0% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding +31.4%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $215?

+17.2%

Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth

Standard FCF implies +16.7%

The market implies +17.2% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +16.7%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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LLY

73/100

Wide Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.

81/100

Wide Moat

70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by margin stability. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Forensic Accounting

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LLY

-1.83

Possible Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

-2.80

Unlikely Manipulator

Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Ownership Breakdown

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LLY

Insiders 0.2%Institutions 85.3%Retail & Other 14.5%

No. of Institutional Holders5,580

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insiders 0.2%Institutions 86.2%Retail & Other 13.5%

No. of Institutional Holders3,096

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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LLY

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

Total value (12M): $4.54M

MONTARCE LUCAS E

Chief Financial Officer

$494,627

@ $691.79 · 2025-08-15

VAN NAARDEN JACOB S.

Officer

$647,360

@ $647.36 · 2025-08-13

ALVAREZ RALPH

Director

$500,473

@ $660.25 · 2025-08-13

FYRWALD J. ERIK

Director

$1.01M

@ $642.33 · 2025-08-12

RICKS DAVID A

Chief Executive Officer

$1.05M

@ $644.77 · 2025-08-12

SKOVRONSKY DANIEL

Officer

$634,405

@ $634.40 · 2025-08-12

SULZBERGER GABRIELLE

Director

$75,018

@ $641.18 · 2025-08-12

JACKSON JAMERE

Director

$127,913

@ $639.57 · 2025-08-08

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Buys (3M)

Buys (12M)

Total value (12M): $392,840

MENKE SEAN EDWARD

Director

$392,840

@ $196.42 · 2025-11-03

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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LLY

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $3.86B

YUFFA ILYA

Officer

$2.88M

@ $1150.77 · 2026-06-10

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$15.75M

@ $995.36 · 2026-05-06

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$322.38M

@ $1103.48 · 2026-01-07

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$1.51M

@ $1085.01 · 2026-01-05

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$3.90M

@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-29

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$2.85M

@ $1085.17 · 2025-12-24

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$260,409

@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-23

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$161.08M

@ $1095.35 · 2025-11-25

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$17.34M

@ $1109.30 · 2025-11-25

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$152.06M

@ $1068.52 · 2025-11-24

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$111.50M

@ $1058.66 · 2025-11-21

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$39.07M

@ $1051.66 · 2025-11-20

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$176.10M

@ $1051.17 · 2025-11-19

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$62.31M

@ $1034.78 · 2025-11-18

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$10.19M

@ $1030.68 · 2025-11-17

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$183.33M

@ $1028.25 · 2025-11-14

ZAKROWSKI DONALD A

Officer

$1.01M

@ $1010.50 · 2025-11-13

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$48.02M

@ $1030.26 · 2025-11-13

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$308.41M

@ $1011.18 · 2025-11-12

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$279.35M

@ $986.64 · 2025-11-11

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$16.41M

@ $972.52 · 2025-11-10

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$167.09M

@ $933.26 · 2025-11-05

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$38.47M

@ $951.56 · 2025-11-05

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$479,038

@ $910.72 · 2025-11-04

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$266.65M

@ $888.83 · 2025-11-03

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$260.17M

@ $863.35 · 2025-10-31

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$3.16M

@ $863.24 · 2025-10-10

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$9.04M

@ $852.49 · 2025-10-09

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$86.23M

@ $850.27 · 2025-10-08

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$22.72M

@ $848.01 · 2025-10-07

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$137.04M

@ $850.22 · 2025-10-06

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$161.22M

@ $837.93 · 2025-10-03

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$92.50M

@ $821.55 · 2025-10-02

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$107.36M

@ $794.15 · 2025-10-01

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$177.29M

@ $821.47 · 2025-10-01

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$86.79M

@ $763.39 · 2025-09-30

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$18.06M

@ $763.09 · 2025-09-19

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$81.53M

@ $764.65 · 2025-09-18

ZAKROWSKI DONALD A

Officer

$734,930

@ $734.93 · 2025-08-28

YUFFA ILYA

Officer

$783,762

@ $627.01 · 2025-08-11

LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.

Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security

$225.42M

@ $805.07 · 2025-07-24

ZAKROWSKI DONALD A

Officer

$716,410

@ $716.41 · 2025-05-27

YUFFA ILYA

Officer

$936,550

@ $749.24 · 2025-05-14

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Sells (3M)

Sells (12M)

Total value (12M): $23.95M

CARRASCO RAFAEL

Officer

$585,335

@ $220.47 · 2026-06-05

CARROLL JOHN A

Officer

$11,529

@ $245.30 · 2026-03-09

DESANTIS CHRISTOPHER P

Officer

$14,976

@ $245.51 · 2026-03-09

VARKEY JOHNSON

Chief Technology Officer

$29,677

@ $245.26 · 2026-03-09

REED DAVID L.

Chief Financial Officer

$18,394

@ $245.25 · 2026-03-09

MORRIS JOHN J JR.

President

$1.02M

@ $243.38 · 2026-03-09

MORRIS JOHN J JR.

President

$1.96M

@ $245.07 · 2026-03-06

VARKEY JOHNSON

Chief Technology Officer

$150,628

@ $244.13 · 2026-03-03

HEMMER TARA J

Officer

$1.17M

@ $241.83 · 2026-03-02

WATSON MICHAEL J.

Officer

$4.17M

@ $241.81 · 2026-03-02

STITH KIMBERLY G.

Officer

$5,106

@ $243.14 · 2026-03-02

REED DAVID L.

Chief Financial Officer

$5,096

@ $242.67 · 2026-03-02

CARROLL JOHN A

Officer

$8,491

@ $229.49 · 2026-02-26

REED DAVID L.

Chief Financial Officer

$8,498

@ $229.68 · 2026-02-26

SMITH DONALD J

Officer

$2.85M

@ $233.48 · 2026-02-17

CARRASCO RAFAEL

Officer

$1.72M

@ $234.50 · 2026-02-13

CARROLL JOHN A

Officer

$239,634

@ $234.71 · 2026-02-11

FISH JAMES C JR

Chief Executive Officer

$8.47M

@ $230.43 · 2026-02-10

SMITH DONALD J

Officer

$151,514

@ $219.59 · 2026-01-30

CARROLL JOHN A

Officer

$48,306

@ $219.57 · 2026-01-30

DESANTIS CHRISTOPHER P

Officer

$47,053

@ $218.85 · 2026-01-30

CARRASCO RAFAEL

Officer

$151,114

@ $219.01 · 2026-01-30

HEMMER TARA J

Officer

$151,596

@ $219.70 · 2026-01-30

WATSON MICHAEL J.

Officer

$150,996

@ $219.79 · 2026-01-30

VARKEY JOHNSON

Chief Technology Officer

$94,004

@ $219.64 · 2026-01-30

STITH KIMBERLY G.

Officer

$34,485

@ $219.65 · 2026-01-30

REED DAVID L.

Chief Financial Officer

$59,028

@ $218.62 · 2026-01-30

BOETTCHER CHARLES C

Officer

$151,111

@ $219.32 · 2026-01-30

MORRIS JOHN J JR.

President

$151,445

@ $219.49 · 2026-01-30

CARRASCO RAFAEL

Officer

$299,543

@ $217.06 · 2025-11-20

STITH KIMBERLY G.

Officer

$22,520

@ $225.20 · 2025-09-04

CARRASCO RAFAEL

Officer

$465,840

@ $240.00 · 2025-05-30

CARRASCO RAFAEL

Officer

$159,610

@ $236.81 · 2025-05-27

RANKIN DEVINA A

Chief Financial Officer

$13.74M

@ $237.36 · 2025-05-27

MORRIS JOHN J JR.

Chief Operating Officer

$5.55M

@ $233.32 · 2025-05-02

CARROLL JOHN A

Officer

$282,626

@ $225.92 · 2025-03-07

MORRIS JOHN J JR.

Chief Operating Officer

$4.30M

@ $224.71 · 2025-03-07

CARRASCO RAFAEL

Officer

$212,540

@ $229.03 · 2025-03-06

HEMMER TARA J

Officer

$705,772

@ $228.11 · 2025-03-05

WATSON MICHAEL J.

Officer

$352,886

@ $228.11 · 2025-03-05

RANKIN DEVINA A

Chief Financial Officer

$941,182

@ $228.11 · 2025-03-05

SMITH DONALD J

Officer

$10,097

@ $234.81 · 2025-03-03

CARROLL JOHN A

Officer

$11,034

@ $234.77 · 2025-03-03

DESANTIS CHRISTOPHER P

Officer

$10,567

@ $234.82 · 2025-03-03

VARKEY JOHNSON

Chief Technology Officer

$29,134

@ $234.95 · 2025-03-03

STITH KIMBERLY G.

Officer

$14,556

@ $234.77 · 2025-03-03

WATSON MICHAEL J.

Officer

$1.30M

@ $227.51 · 2025-02-24

FISH JAMES C JR

Chief Executive Officer

$10.14M

@ $228.43 · 2025-02-24

CARRASCO RAFAEL

Officer

$903,562

@ $225.89 · 2025-02-07

VARKEY JOHNSON

Officer

$70,892

@ $222.93 · 2025-02-04

HEMMER TARA J

Officer

$1.02M

@ $222.12 · 2025-02-04

RANKIN DEVINA A

Chief Financial Officer

$1.29M

@ $222.12 · 2025-02-04

SMITH DONALD J

Officer

$42,062

@ $220.22 · 2025-01-31

CARROLL JOHN A

Officer

$46,095

@ $220.55 · 2025-01-31

DESANTIS CHRISTOPHER P

Officer

$44,072

@ $220.36 · 2025-01-31

VARKEY JOHNSON

Chief Technology Officer

$123,260

@ $220.11 · 2025-01-31

CARRASCO RAFAEL

Officer

$152,758

@ $220.43 · 2025-01-31

HEMMER TARA J

Officer

$152,744

@ $220.41 · 2025-01-31

WATSON MICHAEL J.

Officer

$152,630

@ $220.25 · 2025-01-31

STITH KIMBERLY G.

Officer

$41,147

@ $220.04 · 2025-01-31

BOETTCHER CHARLES C

Officer

$152,870

@ $220.59 · 2025-01-31

RANKIN DEVINA A

Chief Financial Officer

$152,855

@ $220.57 · 2025-01-31

MORRIS JOHN J JR.

Chief Operating Officer

$152,869

@ $220.59 · 2025-01-31

SYLVESTER MARYROSE T

Director

$66,796

@ $215.47 · 2024-11-05

WATSON MICHAEL J.

Officer

$330,000

@ $220.00 · 2024-07-16

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

Learn more →

LLY

😏Greed(61/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

😐Neutral(54/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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LLY

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (61)

⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (54)

View LLY Full Analysis View WM Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: LLY vs WM

Is Eli Lilly and Company or Waste Management, Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, LLY trades at a 3.9% margin of safety (intrinsic value $1143 vs. price $1099), compared to WM's -56.7% margin of safety (intrinsic $137 vs. $215).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Eli Lilly and Company or Waste Management, Inc.?▼

WM scores 81/100 (Wide moat), while LLY scores 73/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is Waste Management, Inc. in financial distress?▼

WM's Altman Z-Score of 2.9 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. LLY scores 8.7 (Safe zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which company has better free cash flow, Eli Lilly and Company or Waste Management, Inc.?▼

Waste Management, Inc. (WM) generates a 3.3% free cash flow yield, compared to Eli Lilly and Company's 0.9%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Eli Lilly and Company or Waste Management, Inc.?▼

LLY earns 37.8% ROIC versus WM's 10.7%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Eli Lilly and Company's or Waste Management, Inc.'s?▼

WM's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to LLY's 64/100 (Safe). WM has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.