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Compare Stocks › LLY vs WM

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) vs Waste Management, Inc. (WM): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-08-03, LLY is undervalued at $1149, with a DCF intrinsic value of $1529604356065 and a margin of safety of 100%. WM is overvalued at $227, with an intrinsic value of $136 and a margin of safety of -67%. Of the two, LLY has the wider margin of safety.

LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
$1148.84
VS
WM
Waste Management, Inc.
$226.55

Rewards

LLY
  • ★Eli Lilly and Company has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Gross margin of 82.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Eli Lilly and Company scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
WM
  • ★Waste Management, Inc. has maintained ROIC above 10% for 4 consecutive years, suggesting solid business economics.
  • ★Waste Management, Inc. scores 81/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with margin stability as the strongest competitive dimension.
  • ★Free cash flow has grown at a 13.1% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.

Risks

LLY
  • ⚠Insiders have sold $18.6M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
WM
  • ⚠FCF yield of 2.6% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
  • ⚠Trailing P/E of 59.5x is 94% above the historical average of 30.7x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
  • ⚠PEG ratio of 2.31 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.

Key Valuation Metrics

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LLY
WM
Valuation
$9.16B
Free Cash Flow
$2.35B
N/A
FCF Yield
2.59%
40.81
Trailing P/E
59.46
25.48
Forward P/E
24.78
Quality & Moat
37.80%
ROIC
11.57%
107.46%
ROE
29.84%
82.83%
Gross Margin
40.60%
1.61
PEG Ratio
2.31
Balance Sheet Safety
1.22
Net Debt / Equity
2.30
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
1.05
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.93
0.60%
Dividend Yield
1.56%
LLY: 8Ties: 2WM: 1
LLYWM

Historical Fundamentals

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LLY

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

WM

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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LLY
$0.00
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Value Destroyer
Σ Retained
$22.34B
Δ Market Cap
+$708.84
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
WM
$6.02
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$4.08B
Δ Market Cap
+$24.54B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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LLY
100.0% Margin of Safety
Price is 100.0% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $1148.84
Fair Value: $1529604356065.14
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
WM
67.0% Overvalued
Price is 67.0% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $226.55
Fair Value: $135.65
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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LLY

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $1149?

-30.0%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies -15.1%

The market implies -30.0% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding -15.1%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

WM

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $227?

+17.8%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +19.7%

The market implies +17.8% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +19.7%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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LLY
73/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.
WM
81/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by margin stability. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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LLY
-1.83
Possible Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
WM
-2.80
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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LLY
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 85.1%Retail & Other 14.8%
No. of Institutional Holders5,685
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
WM
Insiders 0.3%Institutions 86.2%Retail & Other 13.6%
No. of Institutional Holders3,065
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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LLY
0
Buys (3M)
8
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $4.54M
MONTARCE LUCAS E
Chief Financial Officer
$494,627
@ $691.79 · 2025-08-15
ALVAREZ RALPH
Director
$500,473
@ $660.25 · 2025-08-13
VAN NAARDEN JACOB S.
Officer
$647,360
@ $647.36 · 2025-08-13
SULZBERGER GABRIELLE
Director
$75,018
@ $641.18 · 2025-08-12
FYRWALD J. ERIK
Director
$1.01M
@ $642.33 · 2025-08-12
RICKS DAVID A
Chief Executive Officer
$1.05M
@ $644.77 · 2025-08-12
SKOVRONSKY DANIEL
Officer
$634,405
@ $634.40 · 2025-08-12
JACKSON JAMERE
Director
$127,913
@ $639.57 · 2025-08-08
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
WM
0
Buys (3M)
1
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $392,840
MENKE SEAN EDWARD
Director
$392,840
@ $196.42 · 2025-11-03
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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LLY
2
Sells (3M)
40
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $3.63B
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$2.88M
@ $1150.77 · 2026-06-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$15.75M
@ $995.36 · 2026-05-06
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$322.38M
@ $1103.48 · 2026-01-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$1.51M
@ $1085.01 · 2026-01-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.90M
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-29
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$2.85M
@ $1085.17 · 2025-12-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260,409
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-23
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.08M
@ $1095.35 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$17.34M
@ $1109.30 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$152.06M
@ $1068.52 · 2025-11-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$111.50M
@ $1058.66 · 2025-11-21
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$39.07M
@ $1051.66 · 2025-11-20
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$176.10M
@ $1051.17 · 2025-11-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$62.31M
@ $1034.78 · 2025-11-18
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$10.19M
@ $1030.68 · 2025-11-17
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$183.80M
@ $1030.87 · 2025-11-14
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$1.01M
@ $1010.50 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$48.02M
@ $1030.26 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$308.41M
@ $1011.18 · 2025-11-12
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$279.35M
@ $986.64 · 2025-11-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$16.41M
@ $972.52 · 2025-11-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$167.09M
@ $933.26 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$38.47M
@ $951.56 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$479,038
@ $910.72 · 2025-11-04
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$266.65M
@ $888.83 · 2025-11-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260.17M
@ $863.35 · 2025-10-31
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.16M
@ $863.24 · 2025-10-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$9.04M
@ $852.49 · 2025-10-09
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.23M
@ $850.27 · 2025-10-08
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$22.72M
@ $848.01 · 2025-10-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$137.04M
@ $850.22 · 2025-10-06
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.22M
@ $837.93 · 2025-10-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$92.50M
@ $821.55 · 2025-10-02
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$107.36M
@ $794.15 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$177.29M
@ $821.47 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.79M
@ $763.39 · 2025-09-30
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$18.06M
@ $763.09 · 2025-09-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$81.53M
@ $764.65 · 2025-09-18
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$734,930
@ $734.93 · 2025-08-28
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$783,762
@ $627.01 · 2025-08-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$225.42M
@ $805.07 · 2025-07-24
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$716,410
@ $716.41 · 2025-05-27
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
WM
1
Sells (3M)
31
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $23.95M
CARRASCO RAFAEL
Officer
$585,335
@ $220.47 · 2026-06-05
CARROLL JOHN A
Officer
$11,529
@ $245.30 · 2026-03-09
DESANTIS CHRISTOPHER P
Officer
$14,976
@ $245.51 · 2026-03-09
VARKEY JOHNSON
Chief Technology Officer
$29,677
@ $245.26 · 2026-03-09
REED DAVID L.
Chief Financial Officer
$18,394
@ $245.25 · 2026-03-09
MORRIS JOHN J JR.
President
$1.02M
@ $243.38 · 2026-03-09
MORRIS JOHN J JR.
President
$1.96M
@ $245.07 · 2026-03-06
VARKEY JOHNSON
Chief Technology Officer
$150,628
@ $244.13 · 2026-03-03
STITH KIMBERLY G.
Officer
$5,106
@ $243.14 · 2026-03-02
REED DAVID L.
Chief Financial Officer
$5,096
@ $242.67 · 2026-03-02
HEMMER TARA J
Officer
$1.17M
@ $241.83 · 2026-03-02
WATSON MICHAEL J.
Officer
$4.17M
@ $241.81 · 2026-03-02
CARROLL JOHN A
Officer
$8,491
@ $229.49 · 2026-02-26
REED DAVID L.
Chief Financial Officer
$8,498
@ $229.68 · 2026-02-26
SMITH DONALD J
Officer
$2.85M
@ $233.48 · 2026-02-17
CARRASCO RAFAEL
Officer
$1.72M
@ $234.50 · 2026-02-13
CARROLL JOHN A
Officer
$239,634
@ $234.71 · 2026-02-11
FISH JAMES C JR
Chief Executive Officer
$8.47M
@ $230.43 · 2026-02-10
DESANTIS CHRISTOPHER P
Officer
$47,053
@ $218.85 · 2026-01-30
VARKEY JOHNSON
Chief Technology Officer
$94,004
@ $219.64 · 2026-01-30
STITH KIMBERLY G.
Officer
$34,485
@ $219.65 · 2026-01-30
REED DAVID L.
Chief Financial Officer
$59,028
@ $218.62 · 2026-01-30
CARRASCO RAFAEL
Officer
$151,114
@ $219.01 · 2026-01-30
SMITH DONALD J
Officer
$151,514
@ $219.59 · 2026-01-30
CARROLL JOHN A
Officer
$48,306
@ $219.57 · 2026-01-30
BOETTCHER CHARLES C
Officer
$151,111
@ $219.32 · 2026-01-30
HEMMER TARA J
Officer
$151,596
@ $219.70 · 2026-01-30
WATSON MICHAEL J.
Officer
$150,996
@ $219.79 · 2026-01-30
MORRIS JOHN J JR.
President
$151,445
@ $219.49 · 2026-01-30
CARRASCO RAFAEL
Officer
$299,543
@ $217.06 · 2025-11-20
STITH KIMBERLY G.
Officer
$22,520
@ $225.20 · 2025-09-04
CARRASCO RAFAEL
Officer
$465,840
@ $240.00 · 2025-05-30
CARRASCO RAFAEL
Officer
$159,610
@ $236.81 · 2025-05-27
RANKIN DEVINA A
Chief Financial Officer
$13.74M
@ $237.36 · 2025-05-27
MORRIS JOHN J JR.
Chief Operating Officer
$5.55M
@ $233.32 · 2025-05-02
CARROLL JOHN A
Officer
$282,626
@ $225.92 · 2025-03-07
MORRIS JOHN J JR.
Chief Operating Officer
$4.30M
@ $224.71 · 2025-03-07
CARRASCO RAFAEL
Officer
$212,540
@ $229.03 · 2025-03-06
RANKIN DEVINA A
Chief Financial Officer
$941,182
@ $228.11 · 2025-03-05
HEMMER TARA J
Officer
$705,772
@ $228.11 · 2025-03-05
WATSON MICHAEL J.
Officer
$352,886
@ $228.11 · 2025-03-05
DESANTIS CHRISTOPHER P
Officer
$10,567
@ $234.82 · 2025-03-03
VARKEY JOHNSON
Chief Technology Officer
$29,134
@ $234.95 · 2025-03-03
STITH KIMBERLY G.
Officer
$14,556
@ $234.77 · 2025-03-03
SMITH DONALD J
Officer
$10,097
@ $234.81 · 2025-03-03
CARROLL JOHN A
Officer
$11,034
@ $234.77 · 2025-03-03
FISH JAMES C JR
Chief Executive Officer
$10.14M
@ $228.43 · 2025-02-24
WATSON MICHAEL J.
Officer
$1.30M
@ $227.51 · 2025-02-24
CARRASCO RAFAEL
Officer
$903,562
@ $225.89 · 2025-02-07
VARKEY JOHNSON
Officer
$70,892
@ $222.93 · 2025-02-04
RANKIN DEVINA A
Chief Financial Officer
$1.29M
@ $222.12 · 2025-02-04
HEMMER TARA J
Officer
$1.02M
@ $222.12 · 2025-02-04
DESANTIS CHRISTOPHER P
Officer
$44,072
@ $220.36 · 2025-01-31
VARKEY JOHNSON
Chief Technology Officer
$123,260
@ $220.11 · 2025-01-31
STITH KIMBERLY G.
Officer
$41,147
@ $220.04 · 2025-01-31
CARRASCO RAFAEL
Officer
$152,758
@ $220.43 · 2025-01-31
SMITH DONALD J
Officer
$42,062
@ $220.22 · 2025-01-31
CARROLL JOHN A
Officer
$46,095
@ $220.55 · 2025-01-31
BOETTCHER CHARLES C
Officer
$152,870
@ $220.59 · 2025-01-31
RANKIN DEVINA A
Chief Financial Officer
$152,855
@ $220.57 · 2025-01-31
HEMMER TARA J
Officer
$152,744
@ $220.41 · 2025-01-31
WATSON MICHAEL J.
Officer
$152,630
@ $220.25 · 2025-01-31
MORRIS JOHN J JR.
Chief Operating Officer
$152,869
@ $220.59 · 2025-01-31
SYLVESTER MARYROSE T
Director
$66,796
@ $215.47 · 2024-11-05
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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LLY
FearGreed
😐Neutral(59/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
WM
FearGreed
😐Neutral(54/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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LLY
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (59)
WM
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (54)
View LLY Full AnalysisView WM Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: LLY vs WM

Is Eli Lilly and Company or Waste Management, Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, LLY trades at a 100.0% margin of safety (intrinsic value $1529604356065 vs. price $1149), compared to WM's -67.0% margin of safety (intrinsic $136 vs. $227).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Eli Lilly and Company or Waste Management, Inc.?▼

WM scores 81/100 (Wide moat), while LLY scores 73/100 (Wide moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is Eli Lilly and Company in financial distress?▼

LLY's Altman Z-Score of 2.0 places it in the Grey zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. WM scores 2.9 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Eli Lilly and Company or Waste Management, Inc.?▼

LLY earns 37.8% ROIC versus WM's 11.6%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Eli Lilly and Company's or Waste Management, Inc.'s?▼

WM's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to LLY's 64/100 (Safe). WM has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.