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Compare Stocks › LLY vs WDC

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) vs Western Digital Corporation (WDC): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-06-19, LLY is fairly valued at $1099, with a DCF intrinsic value of $1143 and a margin of safety of 4%. WDC is overvalued at $746, with an intrinsic value of $423 and a margin of safety of -76%. Of the two, LLY has the wider margin of safety.

LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
$1098.57
VS
WDC
Western Digital Corporation
$746.23

Rewards

LLY
  • ★Eli Lilly and Company has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Gross margin of 82.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Eli Lilly and Company scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
WDC
  • ★Free cash flow has grown at a 19.1% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
  • ★PEG ratio of 0.61 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate — paying less than 1x for each unit of earnings growth.
  • ★Altman Z-Score of 5.53 indicates very low bankruptcy risk — the company is firmly in the safe zone.

Risks

LLY
  • ⚠FCF yield of 0.9% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
  • ⚠Insiders have sold $18.6M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
WDC
  • ⚠Share count has increased by 10% over the past 4 years, diluting existing shareholders.
  • ⚠Despite buyback spending, shares outstanding increased in 2 out of 2 years — stock-based compensation is offsetting repurchases.
  • ⚠FCF yield of 0.8% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.

Key Valuation Metrics

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LLY
WDC
Valuation
$9.16B
Free Cash Flow
$2.08B
0.93%
FCF Yield
0.81%
39.00
Trailing P/E
44.71
24.69
Forward P/E
41.33
Quality & Moat
37.80%
ROIC
30.19%
107.46%
ROE
85.92%
82.83%
Gross Margin
45.43%
1.50
PEG Ratio
0.61
Balance Sheet Safety
1.22
Net Debt / Equity
Net cash
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
1.05
Net Debt / EBITDA
-0.39
0.56%
Dividend Yield
0.06%
LLY: 8Ties: 1WDC: 3
LLYWDC

Historical Fundamentals

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LLY

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

WDC

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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LLY
$27.49
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$22.34B
Δ Market Cap
+$614.01B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
WDC
N/A
Net losses over 3 years — test not applicable
Company had negative cumulative retained earnings
Σ Retained
$-665.0M
Δ Market Cap
+$52.27B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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LLY
3.9% Margin of Safety
Price is 3.9% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $1098.57
Fair Value: $1143.11
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
WDC
76.4% Overvalued
Price is 76.4% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $746.23
Fair Value: $423.07
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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LLY

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $1099?

+20.0%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +31.4%

The market implies +20.0% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding +31.4%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

WDC

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $746?

+34.2%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +32.9%

Economic Moat Score

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LLY
73/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.
WDC
30/100
No Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

No durable moat detected, though reinvestment efficiency shows some competitive positioning. The business lacks consistent evidence of sustainable advantages.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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LLY
-1.83
Possible Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
WDC

Insufficient data for Beneish M-Score calculation (requires 2+ years).

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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LLY
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 85.3%Retail & Other 14.5%
No. of Institutional Holders5,580
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
WDC
Insiders 0.5%Institutions 101.2%
No. of Institutional Holders1,963
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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LLY
0
Buys (3M)
8
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $4.54M
MONTARCE LUCAS E
Chief Financial Officer
$494,627
@ $691.79 · 2025-08-15
VAN NAARDEN JACOB S.
Officer
$647,360
@ $647.36 · 2025-08-13
ALVAREZ RALPH
Director
$500,473
@ $660.25 · 2025-08-13
FYRWALD J. ERIK
Director
$1.01M
@ $642.33 · 2025-08-12
RICKS DAVID A
Chief Executive Officer
$1.05M
@ $644.77 · 2025-08-12
SKOVRONSKY DANIEL
Officer
$634,405
@ $634.40 · 2025-08-12
SULZBERGER GABRIELLE
Director
$75,018
@ $641.18 · 2025-08-12
JACKSON JAMERE
Director
$127,913
@ $639.57 · 2025-08-08
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
WDC
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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LLY
2
Sells (3M)
41
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $3.86B
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$2.88M
@ $1150.77 · 2026-06-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$15.75M
@ $995.36 · 2026-05-06
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$322.38M
@ $1103.48 · 2026-01-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$1.51M
@ $1085.01 · 2026-01-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.90M
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-29
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$2.85M
@ $1085.17 · 2025-12-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260,409
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-23
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.08M
@ $1095.35 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$17.34M
@ $1109.30 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$152.06M
@ $1068.52 · 2025-11-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$111.50M
@ $1058.66 · 2025-11-21
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$39.07M
@ $1051.66 · 2025-11-20
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$176.10M
@ $1051.17 · 2025-11-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$62.31M
@ $1034.78 · 2025-11-18
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$10.19M
@ $1030.68 · 2025-11-17
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$183.33M
@ $1028.25 · 2025-11-14
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$1.01M
@ $1010.50 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$48.02M
@ $1030.26 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$308.41M
@ $1011.18 · 2025-11-12
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$279.35M
@ $986.64 · 2025-11-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$16.41M
@ $972.52 · 2025-11-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$167.09M
@ $933.26 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$38.47M
@ $951.56 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$479,038
@ $910.72 · 2025-11-04
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$266.65M
@ $888.83 · 2025-11-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260.17M
@ $863.35 · 2025-10-31
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.16M
@ $863.24 · 2025-10-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$9.04M
@ $852.49 · 2025-10-09
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.23M
@ $850.27 · 2025-10-08
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$22.72M
@ $848.01 · 2025-10-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$137.04M
@ $850.22 · 2025-10-06
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.22M
@ $837.93 · 2025-10-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$92.50M
@ $821.55 · 2025-10-02
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$107.36M
@ $794.15 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$177.29M
@ $821.47 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.79M
@ $763.39 · 2025-09-30
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$18.06M
@ $763.09 · 2025-09-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$81.53M
@ $764.65 · 2025-09-18
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$734,930
@ $734.93 · 2025-08-28
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$783,762
@ $627.01 · 2025-08-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$225.42M
@ $805.07 · 2025-07-24
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$716,410
@ $716.41 · 2025-05-27
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$936,550
@ $749.24 · 2025-05-14
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
WDC
11
Sells (3M)
36
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $53.48M
COLE MARTIN I
Director
$1.68M
@ $511.16 · 2026-06-09
COLE MARTIN I
Director
$385,924
@ $536.01 · 2026-06-09
TREGILLIS CYNTHIA LOCK
Officer
$235,699
@ $545.60 · 2026-06-05
GUBBI VIDYADHARA K
Officer
$1.38M
@ $556.24 · 2026-06-01
KIDDOO BRUCE E
Director
$396,390
@ $528.52 · 2026-05-28
TREGILLIS CYNTHIA LOCK
Officer
$265,973
@ $509.53 · 2026-05-27
TREGILLIS CYNTHIA LOCK
Officer
$48,640
@ $458.87 · 2026-05-21
DAVIS BRIAN SCOTT
Officer
$5.01M
@ $500.69 · 2026-05-11
GUBBI VIDYADHARA K
Officer
$2.07M
@ $443.19 · 2026-05-04
TAN IRVING
Chief Executive Officer
$8.24M
@ $411.84 · 2026-05-01
TREGILLIS CYNTHIA LOCK
Officer
$136,884
@ $377.09 · 2026-04-21
GUBBI VIDYADHARA K
Officer
$2.17M
@ $255.32 · 2026-03-06
GUBBI VIDYADHARA K
Officer
$2.74M
@ $270.31 · 2026-03-04
TREGILLIS CYNTHIA LOCK
Officer
$2.50M
@ $268.27 · 2026-03-04
COLE MARTIN I
Director
$1.63M
@ $271.67 · 2026-03-02
TREGILLIS CYNTHIA LOCK
Officer
$61,228
@ $286.11 · 2026-02-26
TREGILLIS CYNTHIA LOCK
Officer
$123,662
@ $282.33 · 2026-02-24
DAVIS BRIAN SCOTT
Officer
$2.79M
@ $279.16 · 2026-02-17
TREGILLIS CYNTHIA LOCK
Officer
$1.83M
@ $270.49 · 2026-02-06
TAN IRVING
Chief Executive Officer
$5.11M
@ $255.44 · 2026-02-02
TREGILLIS CYNTHIA LOCK
Officer
$102,363
@ $229.00 · 2026-01-21
GUBBI VIDYADHARA K
Officer
$3.72M
@ $163.16 · 2025-12-05
ALEXY KIMBERLY E.
Director
$320,165
@ $160.08 · 2025-12-04
TREGILLIS CYNTHIA LOCK
Officer
$449,752
@ $160.57 · 2025-12-02
COLE MARTIN I
Director
$975,696
@ $162.62 · 2025-12-01
OULMAN ROXANNE M
Director
$277,956
@ $154.42 · 2025-11-25
ALEXY KIMBERLY E.
Director
$272,272
@ $154.00 · 2025-11-25
COLE MARTIN I
Director
$1.61M
@ $161.32 · 2025-11-05
TAN IRVING
Chief Executive Officer
$3.01M
@ $150.69 · 2025-11-03
GUBBI VIDYADHARA K
Officer
$1.02M
@ $90.29 · 2025-09-04
ZAMISKA GENE M
Officer
$28,558
@ $80.90 · 2025-08-28
ZAMISKA GENE M
Officer
$64,387
@ $79.10 · 2025-08-26
TREGILLIS CYNTHIA LOCK
Officer
$1.05M
@ $74.78 · 2025-08-22
ZAMISKA GENE M
Officer
$375,847
@ $75.35 · 2025-08-22
TAN IRVING
Chief Executive Officer
$654,334
@ $75.90 · 2025-08-19
GUBBI VIDYADHARA K
Officer
$722,359
@ $75.69 · 2025-08-13
ZAMISKA GENE M
Officer
$14,212
@ $58.01 · 2025-06-17
ZAMISKA GENE M
Officer
$94,888
@ $54.88 · 2025-06-05
TAN IRVING
Chief Executive Officer
$548,354
@ $48.19 · 2025-05-13
ZAMISKA GENE M
Officer
$19,777
@ $43.37 · 2025-03-12
ZAMISKA GENE M
Officer
$68,616
@ $41.36 · 2025-03-07
ZAMISKA GENE M
Officer
$22,733
@ $72.63 · 2024-11-29
ZAMISKA GENE M
Officer
$46,053
@ $69.99 · 2024-11-26
ZAMISKA GENE M
Officer
$24,241
@ $64.47 · 2024-11-21
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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LLY
FearGreed
😏Greed(61/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
WDC
FearGreed
😏Greed(63/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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LLY
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (61)
WDC
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (63)
View LLY Full AnalysisView WDC Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: LLY vs WDC

Is Eli Lilly and Company or Western Digital Corporation more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, LLY trades at a 3.9% margin of safety (intrinsic value $1143 vs. price $1099), compared to WDC's -76.4% margin of safety (intrinsic $423 vs. $746).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Eli Lilly and Company or Western Digital Corporation?▼

LLY scores 73/100 (Wide moat), while WDC scores 30/100 (None moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Which company has better free cash flow, Eli Lilly and Company or Western Digital Corporation?▼

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) generates a 0.9% free cash flow yield, compared to Western Digital Corporation's 0.8%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Eli Lilly and Company or Western Digital Corporation?▼

LLY earns 37.8% ROIC versus WDC's 30.2%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Eli Lilly and Company's or Western Digital Corporation's?▼

WDC's dividend earns a safety score of 85/100 (Very Safe), compared to LLY's 64/100 (Safe). WDC has raised its dividend for 0 consecutive years.