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Compare Stocks › LLY vs WAB

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) vs Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation (WAB): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-06-21, LLY is fairly valued at $1099, with a DCF intrinsic value of $1136 and a margin of safety of 3%. WAB is overvalued at $274, with an intrinsic value of $219 and a margin of safety of -25%. Of the two, LLY has the wider margin of safety.

LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
$1098.57
VS
WAB
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation
$273.83

Rewards

LLY
  • ★Eli Lilly and Company has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Gross margin of 82.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Eli Lilly and Company scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
WAB
  • ★Free cash flow has grown at a 19.0% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
  • ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $1.95 of earning power — management is creating shareholder value.

Risks

LLY
  • ⚠FCF yield of 0.9% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
  • ⚠Insiders have sold $18.6M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
WAB
  • ⚠Trailing P/E of 38.8x is 30% above the historical average of 29.8x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.
  • ⚠5 insider sales totaling $18.5M with no purchases in the past 3 months — insiders are reducing their exposure.

Key Valuation Metrics

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LLY
WAB
Valuation
$9.16B
Free Cash Flow
$1.50B
0.93%
FCF Yield
3.23%
39.07
Trailing P/E
38.79
24.71
Forward P/E
22.53
Quality & Moat
37.80%
ROIC
9.55%
107.46%
ROE
11.31%
82.83%
Gross Margin
35.24%
1.47
PEG Ratio
1.37
Balance Sheet Safety
1.22
Net Debt / Equity
0.57
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
1.05
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.54
0.63%
Dividend Yield
0.45%
LLY: 6Ties: 2WAB: 4
LLYWAB

Historical Fundamentals

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LLY

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

WAB

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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LLY
$27.49
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$22.34B
Δ Market Cap
+$614.01B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
WAB
$7.04
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$2.60B
Δ Market Cap
+$18.33B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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LLY
3.3% Margin of Safety
Price is 3.3% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $1098.57
Fair Value: $1136.48
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
WAB
25.2% Overvalued
Price is 25.2% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $273.83
Fair Value: $218.63
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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LLY

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $1099?

+20.0%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +31.4%

The market implies +20.0% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding +31.4%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

WAB

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $274?

+16.7%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +15.4%

The market implies +16.7% Owner Earnings growth, roughly in line with history — reasonably priced.

Standard FCF implies +15.4%, reflecting ongoing growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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LLY
73/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.
WAB
62/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving roic consistency would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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LLY
-1.83
Possible Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
WAB
-2.50
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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LLY
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 85.4%Retail & Other 14.5%
No. of Institutional Holders5,582
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
WAB
Insiders 0.7%Institutions 96.2%Retail & Other 3.1%
No. of Institutional Holders1,617
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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LLY
0
Buys (3M)
8
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $4.54M
MONTARCE LUCAS E
Chief Financial Officer
$494,627
@ $691.79 · 2025-08-15
ALVAREZ RALPH
Director
$500,473
@ $660.25 · 2025-08-13
VAN NAARDEN JACOB S.
Officer
$647,360
@ $647.36 · 2025-08-13
SULZBERGER GABRIELLE
Director
$75,018
@ $641.18 · 2025-08-12
SKOVRONSKY DANIEL
Officer
$634,405
@ $634.40 · 2025-08-12
RICKS DAVID A
Chief Executive Officer
$1.05M
@ $644.77 · 2025-08-12
FYRWALD J. ERIK
Director
$1.01M
@ $642.33 · 2025-08-12
JACKSON JAMERE
Director
$127,913
@ $639.57 · 2025-08-08
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
WAB
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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LLY
2
Sells (3M)
41
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $3.86B
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$2.88M
@ $1150.77 · 2026-06-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$15.75M
@ $995.36 · 2026-05-06
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$322.38M
@ $1103.48 · 2026-01-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$1.51M
@ $1085.01 · 2026-01-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.90M
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-29
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$2.85M
@ $1085.17 · 2025-12-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260,409
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-23
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.08M
@ $1095.35 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$17.34M
@ $1109.30 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$152.06M
@ $1068.52 · 2025-11-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$111.50M
@ $1058.66 · 2025-11-21
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$39.07M
@ $1051.66 · 2025-11-20
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$176.10M
@ $1051.17 · 2025-11-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$62.31M
@ $1034.78 · 2025-11-18
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$10.19M
@ $1030.68 · 2025-11-17
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$183.33M
@ $1028.25 · 2025-11-14
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$48.02M
@ $1030.26 · 2025-11-13
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$1.01M
@ $1010.50 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$308.41M
@ $1011.18 · 2025-11-12
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$279.35M
@ $986.64 · 2025-11-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$16.41M
@ $972.52 · 2025-11-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$167.09M
@ $933.26 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$38.47M
@ $951.56 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$479,038
@ $910.72 · 2025-11-04
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$266.65M
@ $888.83 · 2025-11-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260.17M
@ $863.35 · 2025-10-31
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.16M
@ $863.24 · 2025-10-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$9.04M
@ $852.49 · 2025-10-09
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.23M
@ $850.27 · 2025-10-08
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$22.72M
@ $848.01 · 2025-10-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$137.04M
@ $850.22 · 2025-10-06
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.22M
@ $837.93 · 2025-10-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$92.50M
@ $821.55 · 2025-10-02
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$107.36M
@ $794.15 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$177.29M
@ $821.47 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.79M
@ $763.39 · 2025-09-30
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$18.06M
@ $763.09 · 2025-09-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$81.53M
@ $764.65 · 2025-09-18
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$734,930
@ $734.93 · 2025-08-28
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$783,762
@ $627.01 · 2025-08-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$225.42M
@ $805.07 · 2025-07-24
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$716,410
@ $716.41 · 2025-05-27
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
WAB
5
Sells (3M)
29
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $38.17M
GAUR SAMEER
Officer
$285,105
@ $263.50 · 2026-06-12
SANTANA RAFAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$607,921
@ $261.36 · 2026-06-08
SANTANA RAFAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$614,844
@ $264.34 · 2026-05-05
DENINNO DAVID L
General Counsel
$663,688
@ $265.48 · 2026-05-05
SANTANA RAFAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$16.36M
@ $268.89 · 2026-04-14
TROMBLEY GINA
Officer
$970,624
@ $241.87 · 2026-03-12
SANTANA RAFAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$572,118
@ $245.97 · 2026-03-10
GAUR SAMEER
Officer
$302,016
@ $262.62 · 2026-02-26
JAIN NALIN
Officer
$2.10M
@ $264.09 · 2026-02-25
OLIN JOHN A
Chief Financial Officer
$2.90M
@ $263.30 · 2026-02-24
MENDONCA ROGERIO
Officer
$924,719
@ $264.21 · 2026-02-20
SBROCCO GREGORY
Officer
$246,025
@ $258.43 · 2026-02-19
SANTANA RAFAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$897,080
@ $249.47 · 2026-02-11
SANTANA RAFAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$787,180
@ $218.90 · 2026-01-06
SANTANA RAFAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$765,446
@ $212.86 · 2025-12-18
FETSKO MICHAEL E.
Officer
$1.09M
@ $215.72 · 2025-12-12
MENDONCA ROGERIO
Officer
$433,089
@ $214.51 · 2025-12-04
DENINNO DAVID L
General Counsel
$1.07M
@ $214.62 · 2025-12-04
MASTALERZ JOHN A JR
Officer
$580,860
@ $210.00 · 2025-11-12
DENINNO DAVID L
General Counsel
$1.05M
@ $209.94 · 2025-11-12
SCHWEITZER PASCAL
Officer
$624,214
@ $208.07 · 2025-11-11
SANTANA RAFAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$732,296
@ $203.64 · 2025-11-04
SBROCCO GREGORY
Officer
$493,928
@ $203.77 · 2025-10-31
DENINNO DAVID L
General Counsel
$419,731
@ $199.87 · 2025-10-28
SBROCCO GREGORY
Officer
$577,108
@ $195.43 · 2025-10-23
SANTANA RAFAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$705,331
@ $196.14 · 2025-10-15
SANTANA RAFAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$682,702
@ $189.80 · 2025-09-15
SANTANA RAFAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$340,876
@ $192.37 · 2025-08-21
SANTANA RAFAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$378,170
@ $213.41 · 2025-07-08
SANTANA RAFAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$356,952
@ $201.44 · 2025-06-18
TROMBLEY GINA
Officer
$868,419
@ $202.00 · 2025-06-13
THEOPHILUS NICOLE BETH
Officer
$408,285
@ $204.14 · 2025-06-11
SCHWEITZER PASCAL
Officer
$823,792
@ $205.95 · 2025-06-09
YATES KYRA
Officer
$283,043
@ $203.77 · 2025-06-05
HEHIR BRIAN P
Director
$237,276
@ $203.67 · 2025-06-03
GEBHARDT ERIC
Chief Technology Officer
$1.24M
@ $202.39 · 2025-05-27
DENINNO DAVID L
General Counsel
$603,138
@ $201.05 · 2025-05-22
SANTANA RAFAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$361,009
@ $203.73 · 2025-05-14
FETSKO MICHAEL E.
Officer
$740,200
@ $202.13 · 2025-05-13
MENDONCA ROGERIO
Officer
$806,745
@ $200.04 · 2025-05-12
HEHIR BRIAN P
Director
$191,418
@ $191.42 · 2025-05-08
LEROUX LILIAN
Officer
$1.44M
@ $192.19 · 2025-05-05
SANTANA RAFAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$13.20M
@ $191.70 · 2025-05-02
DENINNO DAVID L
General Counsel
$575,464
@ $191.82 · 2025-05-02
SCHWEITZER PASCAL
Officer
$738,529
@ $184.63 · 2025-04-25
JAIN NALIN
Officer
$1.95M
@ $185.59 · 2025-04-24
SANTANA RAFAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$9.83M
@ $175.74 · 2025-04-03
SANTANA RAFAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$163,969
@ $185.07 · 2025-04-02
SANTANA RAFAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$161,554
@ $182.34 · 2025-02-27
SANTANA RAFAEL
Chief Executive Officer
$164,348
@ $183.83 · 2025-02-26
SBROCCO GREGORY
Officer
$113,772
@ $201.37 · 2024-11-26
NEUPAVER ALBERT J
Director
$2.02M
@ $202.00 · 2024-11-11
MASTALERZ JOHN A JR
Officer
$558,396
@ $199.71 · 2024-11-06
DENINNO DAVID L
General Counsel
$165,116
@ $188.70 · 2024-10-30
NEUPAVER ALBERT J
Director
$6.74M
@ $188.70 · 2024-10-30
DENINNO DAVID L
General Counsel
$1.89M
@ $188.60 · 2024-10-24
SCHWEITZER PASCAL
Officer
$369,832
@ $163.57 · 2024-09-11
HAMMERSMITH ALICIA
Officer
$690,140
@ $165.54 · 2024-08-26
MENDONCA ROGERIO
Officer
$331,577
@ $165.79 · 2024-08-23
HEHIR BRIAN P
Director
$141,534
@ $165.15 · 2024-08-23
GEBHARDT ERIC
Chief Technology Officer
$1.16M
@ $156.32 · 2024-08-14
THEOPHILUS NICOLE BETH
Officer
$742,419
@ $154.64 · 2024-08-07
HEHIR BRIAN P
Director
$161,615
@ $161.62 · 2024-07-31
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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LLY
FearGreed
😏Greed(61/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
WAB
FearGreed
😏Greed(69/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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LLY
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (61)
WAB
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (69)
View LLY Full AnalysisView WAB Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: LLY vs WAB

Is Eli Lilly and Company or Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, LLY trades at a 3.3% margin of safety (intrinsic value $1136 vs. price $1099), compared to WAB's -25.2% margin of safety (intrinsic $219 vs. $274).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Eli Lilly and Company or Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation?▼

LLY scores 73/100 (Wide moat), while WAB scores 62/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Which company has better free cash flow, Eli Lilly and Company or Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation?▼

Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation (WAB) generates a 3.2% free cash flow yield, compared to Eli Lilly and Company's 0.9%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Eli Lilly and Company or Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation?▼

LLY earns 37.8% ROIC versus WAB's 9.6%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Eli Lilly and Company's or Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation's?▼

WAB's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to LLY's 64/100 (Safe). WAB has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.