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Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) vs Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-08-03, LLY is undervalued at $1149, with a DCF intrinsic value of $1529604356065 and a margin of safety of 100%. VZ is overvalued at $47, with an intrinsic value of $33 and a margin of safety of -43%. Of the two, LLY has the wider margin of safety.

LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
$1148.84
VS
VZ
Verizon Communications Inc.
$46.81

Rewards

LLY
  • ★Eli Lilly and Company has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Gross margin of 82.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Eli Lilly and Company scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
VZ
  • ★Free cash flow has grown at a 23.7% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
  • ★FCF yield of 8.9% is historically attractive — the business generates significant cash relative to its price.
  • ★PEG ratio of 0.89 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate — paying less than 1x for each unit of earnings growth.

Risks

LLY
  • ⚠Insiders have sold $18.6M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
VZ
  • ⚠High leverage (1.82x net debt/equity) combined with thin interest coverage (-1.0x) poses financial risk.
  • ⚠Altman Z-Score of 1.24 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
  • ⚠Insiders have sold $3.5M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.

Key Valuation Metrics

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LLY
VZ
Valuation
$9.16B
Free Cash Flow
$17.47B
N/A
FCF Yield
8.94%
40.81
Trailing P/E
12.19
25.48
Forward P/E
8.88
Quality & Moat
37.80%
ROIC
8.44%
107.46%
ROE
15.84%
82.83%
Gross Margin
59.45%
1.61
PEG Ratio
0.89
Balance Sheet Safety
1.22
Net Debt / Equity
1.82
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
1.05
Net Debt / EBITDA
3.76
0.60%
Dividend Yield
6.05%
LLY: 5Ties: 1VZ: 5
LLYVZ

Historical Fundamentals

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LLY

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

VZ

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

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LLY
$0.00
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Value Destroyer
Σ Retained
$22.34B
Δ Market Cap
+$708.84
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
VZ
$0.50
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Mediocre Allocator
Σ Retained
$12.54B
Δ Market Cap
+$6.29B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

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LLY
100.0% Margin of Safety
Price is 100.0% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $1148.84
Fair Value: $1529604356065.14
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
VZ
42.9% Overvalued
Price is 42.9% above estimated fair value
Current Price: $46.81
Fair Value: $32.76
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

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LLY

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $1149?

-30.0%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies -15.1%

The market implies -30.0% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding -15.1%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

VZ

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $47?

+8.7%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +9.1%

The market implies +8.7% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +9.1%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

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LLY
73/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.
VZ
55/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with margin stability as the key competitive advantage. Improving roic consistency would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

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LLY
-1.83
Possible Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
VZ
-2.69
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

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LLY
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 85.1%Retail & Other 14.8%
No. of Institutional Holders5,685
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
VZ
Insiders 0.0%Institutions 70.7%Retail & Other 29.2%
No. of Institutional Holders3,969
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

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LLY
0
Buys (3M)
8
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $4.54M
MONTARCE LUCAS E
Chief Financial Officer
$494,627
@ $691.79 · 2025-08-15
ALVAREZ RALPH
Director
$500,473
@ $660.25 · 2025-08-13
VAN NAARDEN JACOB S.
Officer
$647,360
@ $647.36 · 2025-08-13
SULZBERGER GABRIELLE
Director
$75,018
@ $641.18 · 2025-08-12
FYRWALD J. ERIK
Director
$1.01M
@ $642.33 · 2025-08-12
RICKS DAVID A
Chief Executive Officer
$1.05M
@ $644.77 · 2025-08-12
SKOVRONSKY DANIEL
Officer
$634,405
@ $634.40 · 2025-08-12
JACKSON JAMERE
Director
$127,913
@ $639.57 · 2025-08-08
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
VZ
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

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LLY
2
Sells (3M)
40
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $3.63B
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$2.88M
@ $1150.77 · 2026-06-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$15.75M
@ $995.36 · 2026-05-06
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$322.38M
@ $1103.48 · 2026-01-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$1.51M
@ $1085.01 · 2026-01-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.90M
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-29
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$2.85M
@ $1085.17 · 2025-12-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260,409
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-23
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.08M
@ $1095.35 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$17.34M
@ $1109.30 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$152.06M
@ $1068.52 · 2025-11-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$111.50M
@ $1058.66 · 2025-11-21
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$39.07M
@ $1051.66 · 2025-11-20
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$176.10M
@ $1051.17 · 2025-11-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$62.31M
@ $1034.78 · 2025-11-18
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$10.19M
@ $1030.68 · 2025-11-17
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$183.80M
@ $1030.87 · 2025-11-14
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$1.01M
@ $1010.50 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$48.02M
@ $1030.26 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$308.41M
@ $1011.18 · 2025-11-12
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$279.35M
@ $986.64 · 2025-11-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$16.41M
@ $972.52 · 2025-11-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$167.09M
@ $933.26 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$38.47M
@ $951.56 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$479,038
@ $910.72 · 2025-11-04
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$266.65M
@ $888.83 · 2025-11-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260.17M
@ $863.35 · 2025-10-31
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.16M
@ $863.24 · 2025-10-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$9.04M
@ $852.49 · 2025-10-09
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.23M
@ $850.27 · 2025-10-08
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$22.72M
@ $848.01 · 2025-10-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$137.04M
@ $850.22 · 2025-10-06
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.22M
@ $837.93 · 2025-10-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$92.50M
@ $821.55 · 2025-10-02
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$107.36M
@ $794.15 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$177.29M
@ $821.47 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.79M
@ $763.39 · 2025-09-30
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$18.06M
@ $763.09 · 2025-09-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$81.53M
@ $764.65 · 2025-09-18
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$734,930
@ $734.93 · 2025-08-28
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$783,762
@ $627.01 · 2025-08-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$225.42M
@ $805.07 · 2025-07-24
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$716,410
@ $716.41 · 2025-05-27
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
VZ
1
Sells (3M)
3
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $4.35M
HAMMOCK SAMANTHA
Officer
$3.50M
@ $47.83 · 2026-05-29
STILLWELL MARY-LEE
Officer
$428,450
@ $50.00 · 2026-03-02
RUSSO JOSEPH J.
Officer
$429,906
@ $44.88 · 2026-02-02
MALADY KYLE
Officer
$438,101
@ $43.81 · 2025-05-08
MALADY KYLE
Officer
$396,900
@ $44.10 · 2025-05-07
MALADY KYLE
Officer
$329,062
@ $43.87 · 2025-04-30
MALADY KYLE
Officer
$430,240
@ $43.02 · 2025-04-24
MALADY KYLE
Officer
$212,425
@ $42.48 · 2025-04-23
VENKATESH VANDANA
Officer
$437,939
@ $43.79 · 2025-02-25
MALADY KYLE
Officer
$261,623
@ $39.70 · 2025-02-04
MALADY KYLE
Officer
$319,080
@ $39.88 · 2025-02-03
MALADY KYLE
Chief Executive Officer
$453,155
@ $40.88 · 2025-01-29
MALADY KYLE
Officer
$809,800
@ $40.49 · 2025-01-28
MALADY KYLE
Officer
$810,800
@ $40.54 · 2025-01-27
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

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LLY
FearGreed
😐Neutral(59/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
VZ
FearGreed
😏Greed(61/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

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LLY
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (59)
VZ
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (61)
View LLY Full AnalysisView VZ Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: LLY vs VZ

Is Eli Lilly and Company or Verizon Communications Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, LLY trades at a 100.0% margin of safety (intrinsic value $1529604356065 vs. price $1149), compared to VZ's -42.9% margin of safety (intrinsic $33 vs. $47).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Eli Lilly and Company or Verizon Communications Inc.?▼

LLY scores 73/100 (Wide moat), while VZ scores 55/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Is Verizon Communications Inc. in financial distress?▼

VZ's Altman Z-Score of 1.2 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. LLY scores 2.0 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Eli Lilly and Company or Verizon Communications Inc.?▼

LLY earns 37.8% ROIC versus VZ's 8.4%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Eli Lilly and Company's or Verizon Communications Inc.'s?▼

VZ's dividend earns a safety score of 84/100 (Very Safe), compared to LLY's 64/100 (Safe). VZ has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.

LLY vs VZ: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026? | SafetyMargin.io