SafetyMargin.ioSafetyMargin.io
BlogWatchlistCompare
Compare Stocks › LLY vs UBER

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) vs Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-06-19, LLY is fairly valued at $1099, with a DCF intrinsic value of $1143 and a margin of safety of 4%. UBER is undervalued at $72, with an intrinsic value of $387 and a margin of safety of 82%. Of the two, UBER has the wider margin of safety.

LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
$1098.57
VS
UBER
Uber Technologies, Inc.
$71.64

Rewards

LLY
  • ★Eli Lilly and Company has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Gross margin of 82.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Eli Lilly and Company scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
UBER
  • ★Free cash flow has grown at a 192.5% CAGR over the past 4 years, demonstrating strong earnings power growth.
  • ★Each dollar of retained earnings has created $9.64 of earning power — management is an exceptional capital allocator.
  • ★Management has timed buybacks well — 2 out of 2 years showed value-accretive repurchases.

Risks

LLY
  • ⚠FCF yield of 0.9% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
  • ⚠Insiders have sold $18.6M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
UBER
  • ⚠FCF yield of 6.7% suggests reasonable valuation assuming continued moderate growth.
  • ⚠PEG ratio of 5.94 indicates the stock is expensive relative to its expected growth — the market may be pricing in more growth than analysts project.

Key Valuation Metrics

Learn more →
LLY
UBER
Valuation
$9.16B
Free Cash Flow
$9.76B
0.93%
FCF Yield
6.69%
39.00
Trailing P/E
17.78
24.69
Forward P/E
16.22
Quality & Moat
37.80%
ROIC
16.16%
107.46%
ROE
35.31%
82.83%
Gross Margin
39.63%
1.50
PEG Ratio
5.94
Balance Sheet Safety
1.22
Net Debt / Equity
0.25
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
1.05
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.90
0.56%
Dividend Yield
0.00%
LLY: 5Ties: 1UBER: 6
LLYUBER

Historical Fundamentals

Learn more →
LLY

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

UBER

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

Learn more →
LLY
$27.49
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$22.34B
Δ Market Cap
+$614.01B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
UBER
$5.48
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$21.80B
Δ Market Cap
+$119.37B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

Learn more →
LLY
3.9% Margin of Safety
Price is 3.9% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $1098.57
Fair Value: $1143.11
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
UBER
81.5% Margin of Safety
Price is 81.5% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $71.64
Fair Value: $387.33
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

Learn more →
LLY

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $1099?

+20.0%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +31.4%

The market implies +20.0% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding +31.4%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

UBER

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $72?

+3.4%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +4.3%

The market implies +3.4% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding +4.3%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

Economic Moat Score

Learn more →
LLY
73/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.
UBER
47/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with revenue predictability as the key competitive advantage. Improving margin stability would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

Learn more →
LLY
-1.83
Possible Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
UBER
-2.29
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

Learn more →
LLY
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 85.3%Retail & Other 14.5%
No. of Institutional Holders5,580
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
UBER
Insiders 0.4%Institutions 86.2%Retail & Other 13.4%
No. of Institutional Holders3,279
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

Learn more →
LLY
0
Buys (3M)
8
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $4.54M
MONTARCE LUCAS E
Chief Financial Officer
$494,627
@ $691.79 · 2025-08-15
VAN NAARDEN JACOB S.
Officer
$647,360
@ $647.36 · 2025-08-13
ALVAREZ RALPH
Director
$500,473
@ $660.25 · 2025-08-13
FYRWALD J. ERIK
Director
$1.01M
@ $642.33 · 2025-08-12
RICKS DAVID A
Chief Executive Officer
$1.05M
@ $644.77 · 2025-08-12
SKOVRONSKY DANIEL
Officer
$634,405
@ $634.40 · 2025-08-12
SULZBERGER GABRIELLE
Director
$75,018
@ $641.18 · 2025-08-12
JACKSON JAMERE
Director
$127,913
@ $639.57 · 2025-08-08
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
UBER
0
Buys (3M)
2
Buys (12M)
Total value (12M): $1.60M
KRISHNAMURTHY BALAJI
Chief Financial Officer
$1.60M
@ $71.25 · 2026-02-24
MAHENDRA-RAJAH PRASHANTH
Chief Financial Officer
$465.00
@ $93.00 · 2025-10-14
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

Learn more →
LLY
2
Sells (3M)
41
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $3.86B
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$2.88M
@ $1150.77 · 2026-06-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$15.75M
@ $995.36 · 2026-05-06
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$322.38M
@ $1103.48 · 2026-01-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$1.51M
@ $1085.01 · 2026-01-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.90M
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-29
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$2.85M
@ $1085.17 · 2025-12-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260,409
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-23
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.08M
@ $1095.35 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$17.34M
@ $1109.30 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$152.06M
@ $1068.52 · 2025-11-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$111.50M
@ $1058.66 · 2025-11-21
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$39.07M
@ $1051.66 · 2025-11-20
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$176.10M
@ $1051.17 · 2025-11-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$62.31M
@ $1034.78 · 2025-11-18
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$10.19M
@ $1030.68 · 2025-11-17
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$183.33M
@ $1028.25 · 2025-11-14
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$1.01M
@ $1010.50 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$48.02M
@ $1030.26 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$308.41M
@ $1011.18 · 2025-11-12
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$279.35M
@ $986.64 · 2025-11-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$16.41M
@ $972.52 · 2025-11-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$167.09M
@ $933.26 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$38.47M
@ $951.56 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$479,038
@ $910.72 · 2025-11-04
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$266.65M
@ $888.83 · 2025-11-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260.17M
@ $863.35 · 2025-10-31
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.16M
@ $863.24 · 2025-10-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$9.04M
@ $852.49 · 2025-10-09
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.23M
@ $850.27 · 2025-10-08
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$22.72M
@ $848.01 · 2025-10-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$137.04M
@ $850.22 · 2025-10-06
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.22M
@ $837.93 · 2025-10-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$92.50M
@ $821.55 · 2025-10-02
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$107.36M
@ $794.15 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$177.29M
@ $821.47 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.79M
@ $763.39 · 2025-09-30
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$18.06M
@ $763.09 · 2025-09-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$81.53M
@ $764.65 · 2025-09-18
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$734,930
@ $734.93 · 2025-08-28
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$783,762
@ $627.01 · 2025-08-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$225.42M
@ $805.07 · 2025-07-24
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$716,410
@ $716.41 · 2025-05-27
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$936,550
@ $749.24 · 2025-05-14
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
UBER
0
Sells (3M)
14
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $62.50M
KRISHNAMURTHY TANYA NICHOLE
Officer
$2.23M
@ $74.45 · 2026-03-16
WEST, TONY
Officer
$251,125
@ $80.36 · 2025-12-18
WEST, TONY
Officer
$287,812
@ $92.10 · 2025-11-18
MAHENDRA-RAJAH PRASHANTH
Chief Financial Officer
$519,234
@ $94.41 · 2025-11-12
WEST, TONY
Officer
$290,625
@ $93.00 · 2025-10-20
WEST, TONY
Officer
$10.04M
@ $100.38 · 2025-09-22
KHOSROWSHAHI DARA
Chief Executive Officer
$15.07M
@ $100.48 · 2025-09-22
WEST, TONY
Officer
$293,562
@ $93.94 · 2025-09-18
MAHENDRA-RAJAH PRASHANTH
Chief Financial Officer
$273,405
@ $99.42 · 2025-09-16
KHOSROWSHAHI DARA
Chief Executive Officer
$28.61M
@ $95.37 · 2025-09-12
WEST, TONY
Officer
$296,875
@ $95.00 · 2025-08-26
HAZELBAKER JILL
Officer
$3.01M
@ $96.42 · 2025-08-22
KRISHNAMURTHY TANYA NICHOLE
Officer
$1.06M
@ $91.74 · 2025-08-15
MAHENDRA-RAJAH PRASHANTH
Chief Financial Officer
$261,250
@ $95.00 · 2025-07-07
HAZELBAKER JILL
Officer
$3.00M
@ $86.03 · 2025-05-12
MAHENDRA-RAJAH PRASHANTH
Chief Financial Officer
$233,750
@ $85.00 · 2025-05-05
MAHENDRA-RAJAH PRASHANTH
Chief Financial Officer
$206,250
@ $75.00 · 2025-03-20
WEST, TONY
Officer
$3.31M
@ $70.59 · 2025-03-14
KRISHNAMURTHY TANYA NICHOLE
Officer
$1.43M
@ $71.57 · 2025-03-14
HAZELBAKER JILL
Officer
$2.51M
@ $81.02 · 2025-02-18
HAZELBAKER JILL
Officer
$2.03M
@ $72.90 · 2024-11-25
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

Learn more →
LLY
FearGreed
😏Greed(61/100)

"Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
UBER
FearGreed
😨Fear(40/100)

"Market is pessimistic — investigate whether fears are temporary or structural"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

Learn more →
LLY
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (61)
UBER
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Fear (40)
View LLY Full AnalysisView UBER Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: LLY vs UBER

Is Eli Lilly and Company or Uber Technologies, Inc. more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, UBER trades at a 81.5% margin of safety (intrinsic value $387 vs. price $72), compared to LLY's 3.9% margin of safety (intrinsic $1143 vs. $1099).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Eli Lilly and Company or Uber Technologies, Inc.?▼

LLY scores 73/100 (Wide moat), while UBER scores 47/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Which company has better free cash flow, Eli Lilly and Company or Uber Technologies, Inc.?▼

Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) generates a 6.7% free cash flow yield, compared to Eli Lilly and Company's 0.9%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Eli Lilly and Company or Uber Technologies, Inc.?▼

LLY earns 37.8% ROIC versus UBER's 16.2%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.