SafetyMargin.ioSafetyMargin.io
BlogWatchlistCompare
Compare Stocks › LLY vs TXN

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) vs Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-09-17, LLY is undervalued at $1138, with a DCF intrinsic value of $1598 and a margin of safety of 29%. TXN is undervalued at $261, with an intrinsic value of $365 and a margin of safety of 29%. Of the two, LLY has the wider margin of safety.

LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
$1137.82
VS
TXN
Texas Instruments Incorporated
$260.67

Rewards

LLY
  • ★Eli Lilly and Company has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Gross margin of 83.4% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Eli Lilly and Company scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
TXN
  • ★Texas Instruments Incorporated has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Return on equity has consistently exceeded 20% over 4 years, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital.
  • ★PEG ratio of 0.94 suggests the stock is undervalued relative to its growth rate — paying less than 1x for each unit of earnings growth.

Risks

LLY
  • ⚠FCF yield of 1.1% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
  • ⚠Insiders have sold $10.0M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
TXN
  • ⚠Buybacks have been poorly timed — 3 out of 4 years involved repurchases at relatively expensive valuations.
  • ⚠FCF yield of 1.5% is below 3%, meaning the market is pricing in substantial future growth to justify the current price.
  • ⚠Trailing P/E of 39.7x is 47% above the historical average of 27.1x — the stock trades at a premium to its own history.

Key Valuation Metrics

Learn more →
LLY
TXN
Valuation
$11.07B
Free Cash Flow
$3.55B
1.09%
FCF Yield
1.49%
38.17
Trailing P/E
39.68
24.05
Forward P/E
24.49
Quality & Moat
38.43%
ROIC
20.41%
102.29%
ROE
35.18%
83.40%
Gross Margin
58.33%
1.10
PEG Ratio
0.94
Balance Sheet Safety
1.36
Net Debt / Equity
0.39
N/A
Interest Coverage
N/A
1.10
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.74
0.61%
Dividend Yield
2.18%
LLY: 4Ties: 3TXN: 5
LLYTXN

Historical Fundamentals

Learn more →
LLY

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

TXN

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

$1 Retained Earnings Test

Learn more →
LLY
$27.49
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$22.34B
Δ Market Cap
+$614.01B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
TXN
$3.91
created per $1 retained over 3 years
Exceptional Value Creator
Σ Retained
$1.96B
Δ Market Cap
+$7.67B
Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
> $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

Learn more →
LLY
28.8% Margin of Safety
Price is 28.8% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $1137.82
Fair Value: $1597.97
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued
TXN
17.5% Margin of Safety
Price is 17.5% below estimated fair value
Current Price: $260.67
Fair Value: $315.99
Strongly undervalued
Undervalued
Fairly valued
Overvalued
Strongly overvalued

Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

Learn more →
LLY

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $1138?

+20.6%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +29.3%

The market implies +20.6% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

Standard FCF implies a more demanding +29.3%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

TXN

What growth rate is the market pricing in at $261?

+19.9%
Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
Standard FCF implies +24.7%

The market implies +19.9% Owner Earnings growth, above historical trends.

Standard FCF implies a demanding +24.7%, reflecting heavy growth investment.

Economic Moat Score

Learn more →
LLY
73/100
Wide Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.
TXN
48/100
Narrow Moat
70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

Narrow moat with roic consistency as the key competitive advantage. Improving reinvestment efficiency would strengthen the moat.

Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

Forensic Accounting

Learn more →
LLY
-1.83
Possible Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
TXN
-2.67
Unlikely Manipulator
Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

M-Score Trend

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

Ownership Breakdown

Learn more →
LLY
Insiders 0.2%Institutions 85.3%Retail & Other 14.5%
No. of Institutional Holders5,890
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
TXN
Insiders 0.3%Institutions 91.7%Retail & Other 8.1%
No. of Institutional Holders3,671
High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

Insider Buying Activity

Learn more →
LLY
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
MONTARCE LUCAS E
Chief Financial Officer
$494,627
@ $691.79 · 2025-08-15
ALVAREZ RALPH
Director
$500,473
@ $660.25 · 2025-08-13
VAN NAARDEN JACOB S.
Officer
$647,360
@ $647.36 · 2025-08-13
FYRWALD J. ERIK
Director
$1.01M
@ $642.33 · 2025-08-12
RICKS DAVID A
Chief Executive Officer
$1.05M
@ $644.77 · 2025-08-12
SKOVRONSKY DANIEL
Officer
$634,405
@ $634.40 · 2025-08-12
SULZBERGER GABRIELLE
Director
$75,018
@ $641.18 · 2025-08-12
JACKSON JAMERE
Director
$127,913
@ $639.57 · 2025-08-08
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
TXN
0
Buys (3M)
0
Buys (12M)
No open market insider purchases found.
Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

Insider Selling Activity

Learn more →
LLY
2
Sells (3M)
40
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $3.64B
JONSSON PATRIK
Officer
$7.64M
@ $1175.10 · 2026-08-17
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$2.37M
@ $1185.01 · 2026-08-10
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$2.88M
@ $1150.77 · 2026-06-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$15.75M
@ $995.36 · 2026-05-06
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$322.38M
@ $1103.48 · 2026-01-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$1.51M
@ $1085.01 · 2026-01-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.90M
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-29
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$2.85M
@ $1085.17 · 2025-12-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260,409
@ $1085.04 · 2025-12-23
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$17.34M
@ $1109.30 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.08M
@ $1095.35 · 2025-11-25
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$152.06M
@ $1068.52 · 2025-11-24
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$111.50M
@ $1058.66 · 2025-11-21
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$39.07M
@ $1051.66 · 2025-11-20
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$176.10M
@ $1051.17 · 2025-11-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$62.31M
@ $1034.78 · 2025-11-18
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$10.19M
@ $1030.68 · 2025-11-17
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$183.80M
@ $1030.87 · 2025-11-14
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$48.02M
@ $1030.26 · 2025-11-13
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$1.01M
@ $1010.50 · 2025-11-13
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$308.41M
@ $1011.18 · 2025-11-12
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$279.35M
@ $986.64 · 2025-11-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$16.41M
@ $972.52 · 2025-11-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$167.09M
@ $933.26 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$38.47M
@ $951.56 · 2025-11-05
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$479,038
@ $910.72 · 2025-11-04
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$266.65M
@ $888.83 · 2025-11-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$260.17M
@ $863.35 · 2025-10-31
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$3.16M
@ $863.24 · 2025-10-10
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$9.04M
@ $852.49 · 2025-10-09
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.23M
@ $850.27 · 2025-10-08
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$22.72M
@ $848.01 · 2025-10-07
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$137.04M
@ $850.22 · 2025-10-06
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$161.22M
@ $837.93 · 2025-10-03
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$92.50M
@ $821.55 · 2025-10-02
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$107.36M
@ $794.15 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$177.29M
@ $821.47 · 2025-10-01
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$86.79M
@ $763.39 · 2025-09-30
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$18.06M
@ $763.09 · 2025-09-19
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$81.53M
@ $764.65 · 2025-09-18
ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
Officer
$734,930
@ $734.93 · 2025-08-28
YUFFA ILYA
Officer
$783,762
@ $627.01 · 2025-08-11
LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
$225.42M
@ $805.07 · 2025-07-24
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
TXN
1
Sells (3M)
28
Sells (12M)
Total value (12M): $114.87M
ABRAHAM TSEDENIYA
Officer
$1.85M
@ $264.63 · 2026-08-27
CRAIGHEAD MARTIN S
Director
$3.20M
@ $320.43 · 2026-05-28
BAHAI AHMAD
Officer
$1.55M
@ $309.13 · 2026-05-14
LIZARDI RAFAEL R
Chief Financial Officer
$14.71M
@ $308.10 · 2026-05-14
COX CARRIE SMITH
Director
$2.71M
@ $306.41 · 2026-05-13
LEONARD SHANON J
Officer
$1.47M
@ $295.22 · 2026-05-11
ILAN HAVIV
Chief Executive Officer
$5.61M
@ $280.32 · 2026-05-04
KNECHT JULIE C.
Officer
$2.77M
@ $278.70 · 2026-05-01
GARY MARK
Officer
$3.82M
@ $279.25 · 2026-04-30
ROBERTS MARK T
Officer
$7.87M
@ $280.34 · 2026-04-30
YUNUS MOHAMMAD
Officer
$13.82M
@ $270.44 · 2026-04-29
BAHAI AHMAD
Officer
$982,359
@ $268.40 · 2026-04-27
KANE KATHARINE
General Counsel
$1.66M
@ $270.41 · 2026-04-27
PATSLEY PAMELA H
Director
$1.19M
@ $276.11 · 2026-04-24
BLUEDORN TODD M
Director
$1.18M
@ $274.25 · 2026-04-24
RON AMICHAI
Officer
$5.00M
@ $272.43 · 2026-04-24
WITZSCHE CHRISTINE
Officer
$998,771
@ $275.52 · 2026-04-24
LEONARD SHANON J
Officer
$5.06M
@ $277.95 · 2026-04-24
LIZARDI RAFAEL R
Chief Financial Officer
$11.12M
@ $274.23 · 2026-04-24
KOZANIAN HAGOP H
Officer
$1.55M
@ $225.95 · 2026-02-17
BAHAI AHMAD
Officer
$1.50M
@ $230.79 · 2026-02-11
GARY MARK
Officer
$5.24M
@ $226.00 · 2026-02-11
LIZARDI RAFAEL R
Chief Financial Officer
$15.88M
@ $221.73 · 2026-02-11
ROBERTS MARK T
Officer
$986,604
@ $221.16 · 2026-02-09
BAHAI AHMAD
Officer
$670,387
@ $223.46 · 2026-02-05
BLINN MARK A
Director
$696,647
@ $221.58 · 2026-02-05
KIRK RONALD
Director
$1.62M
@ $162.33 · 2025-11-24
WITZSCHE CHRISTINE
Officer
$164,306
@ $164.31 · 2025-11-13
BAHAI AHMAD
Officer
$308,030
@ $205.35 · 2025-08-25
TEMPLETON RICHARD K
Chairman of the Board
$19.85M
@ $195.41 · 2025-02-28
TEMPLETON RICHARD K
Chairman of the Board
$38.65M
@ $199.20 · 2025-02-26
TEMPLETON RICHARD K
Chairman of the Board
$39.32M
@ $202.70 · 2025-02-24
CLARK JANET F
Director
$1.23M
@ $203.62 · 2025-02-24
BLINN MARK A
Director
$1.17M
@ $189.89 · 2025-02-19
LEONARD SHANON J
Officer
$401,241
@ $186.62 · 2025-02-18
BLINN MARK A
Director
$106,617
@ $180.71 · 2025-02-04
KIRK RONALD
Director
$2.14M
@ $203.33 · 2024-11-25
GARY MARK
Officer
$3.49M
@ $219.82 · 2024-11-08
ILAN HAVIV
Chief Executive Officer
$2.88M
@ $219.30 · 2024-11-08
BAHAI AHMAD
Officer
$472,514
@ $217.25 · 2024-11-07
YUNUS MOHAMMAD
Officer
$1.81M
@ $216.94 · 2024-11-07
LIZARDI RAFAEL R
Chief Financial Officer
$10.19M
@ $217.16 · 2024-11-07
GARY MARK
Officer
$940,296
@ $214.83 · 2024-11-06
ILAN HAVIV
Chief Executive Officer
$5.29M
@ $211.50 · 2024-11-06
WITZSCHE CHRISTINE
Officer
$27,941
@ $211.67 · 2024-11-06
SANCHEZ ROBERT E
Director
$2.09M
@ $208.80 · 2024-10-25
Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

Learn more →
LLY
FearGreed
😐Neutral(51/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
TXN
FearGreed
😐Neutral(51/100)

"Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

⚖️ Buffett Signal

Learn more →
LLY
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (51)
TXN
⚪Awaiting DCF Data

The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (51)
View LLY Full AnalysisView TXN Full Analysis

Frequently Asked Questions: LLY vs TXN

Is Eli Lilly and Company or Texas Instruments Incorporated more undervalued in 2026?▼

Based on our discounted cash flow model, LLY trades at a 28.8% margin of safety (intrinsic value $1598 vs. price $1138), compared to TXN's 28.5% margin of safety (intrinsic $365 vs. $261).

Which stock has a wider economic moat, Eli Lilly and Company or Texas Instruments Incorporated?▼

LLY scores 73/100 (Wide moat), while TXN scores 48/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

Which company has better free cash flow, Eli Lilly and Company or Texas Instruments Incorporated?▼

Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) generates a 1.5% free cash flow yield, compared to Eli Lilly and Company's 1.1%. A higher FCF yield means the business converts more of its market value into cash that can be returned to shareholders or reinvested.

Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Eli Lilly and Company or Texas Instruments Incorporated?▼

LLY earns 38.4% ROIC versus TXN's 20.4%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

Which dividend is safer, Eli Lilly and Company's or Texas Instruments Incorporated's?▼

LLY's dividend earns a safety score of 64/100 (Safe), compared to TXN's 34/100 (Unsafe). LLY has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.