SafetyMargin.ioSafetyMargin.io
BlogWatchlistCompare
Compare Stocks › LLY vs TMO

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) vs Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc (TMO): Which Is the Better Buy in 2026?

As of 2026-08-03, LLY is undervalued at $1149, with a DCF intrinsic value of $1529604356065 and a margin of safety of 100%. TMO is undervalued at $574, with an intrinsic value of $151245065994 and a margin of safety of 100%. Of the two, LLY has the wider margin of safety.

LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
$1148.84
VS
TMO
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc
$574.30

Rewards

LLY
  • ★Eli Lilly and Company has maintained ROIC above 15% for 4 consecutive years, indicating a durable competitive advantage.
  • ★Gross margin of 82.8% indicates strong pricing power — typical of businesses with significant intellectual property or brand strength.
  • ★Eli Lilly and Company scores 73/100 on the Economic Moat Score (Wide Moat), with roic consistency as the strongest competitive dimension.
TMO

    Risks

    LLY
    • ⚠Insiders have sold $18.6M worth of stock in the past 3 months — significant insider liquidation.
    TMO
    • ⚠Altman Z-Score of 1.54 places the company in the distress zone — financial patterns resemble those of companies that experienced bankruptcy.
    • ⚠21 insider sales with no purchases over the past 12 months — a persistent pattern of insider selling.

    Key Valuation Metrics

    Learn more →
    LLY
    TMO
    Valuation
    $9.16B
    Free Cash Flow
    $6.24B
    N/A
    FCF Yield
    N/A
    40.81
    Trailing P/E
    30.86
    25.48
    Forward P/E
    20.88
    Quality & Moat
    37.80%
    ROIC
    7.20%
    107.46%
    ROE
    13.51%
    82.83%
    Gross Margin
    40.99%
    1.61
    PEG Ratio
    1.87
    Balance Sheet Safety
    1.22
    Net Debt / Equity
    0.73
    N/A
    Interest Coverage
    N/A
    1.05
    Net Debt / EBITDA
    3.28
    0.60%
    Dividend Yield
    0.33%
    LLY: 7Ties: 1TMO: 3
    LLYTMO

    Historical Fundamentals

    Learn more →
    LLY

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    TMO

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    Price ÷ Earnings Per Share — how many years of current earnings you're paying for at today's price. Lower P/E may indicate undervaluation. The dashed forward point is the forward P/E — today's price ÷ analyst consensus EPS.

    $1 Retained Earnings Test

    Learn more →
    LLY
    $0.00
    created per $1 retained over 3 years
    Value Destroyer
    Σ Retained
    $22.34B
    Δ Market Cap
    +$708.84
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer
    TMO
    $0.00
    created per $1 retained over 3 years
    Value Destroyer
    Σ Retained
    $17.29B
    Δ Market Cap
    +$28.76
    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Buffett's "$1 Test": For every $1 of earnings retained, has management created at least $1 of market value?
    > $1 created per $1 retained = Value Creator · < $1 created = Value Destroyer

    Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

    Learn more →
    LLY
    100.0% Margin of Safety
    Price is 100.0% below estimated fair value
    Current Price: $1148.84
    Fair Value: $1529604356065.14
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued
    TMO
    100.0% Margin of Safety
    Price is 100.0% below estimated fair value
    Current Price: $574.30
    Fair Value: $151245065993.58
    Strongly undervalued
    Undervalued
    Fairly valued
    Overvalued
    Strongly overvalued

    Reverse DCF — Market-Implied Growth

    Learn more →
    LLY

    What growth rate is the market pricing in at $1149?

    -30.0%
    Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
    Standard FCF implies -15.1%

    The market implies -30.0% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

    Standard FCF implies a more demanding -15.1%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

    TMO

    What growth rate is the market pricing in at $574?

    -12.7%
    Market-Implied Owner Earnings Growth
    Standard FCF implies -8.9%

    The market implies -12.7% Owner Earnings growth, below historical trends — potential opportunity.

    Standard FCF implies a more demanding -8.9%, reflecting heavy growth investment expected to generate future returns.

    Economic Moat Score

    Learn more →
    LLY
    73/100
    Wide Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    Wide moat driven primarily by roic consistency. Reinvestment Efficiency is the area most vulnerable to competitive pressure.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 5 years of fundamental data.
    TMO
    60/100
    Narrow Moat
    70+ Wide · 40-69 Narrow · <40 None

    Narrow moat with margin stability as the key competitive advantage. Improving roic consistency would strengthen the moat.

    Composite score measuring competitive advantage durability across four dimensions: returns above cost of capital, pricing power stability, revenue predictability, and capital efficiency. Based on 4 years of fundamental data.

    Forensic Accounting

    Learn more →
    LLY
    -1.83
    Possible Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.
    TMO
    -2.47
    Unlikely Manipulator
    Above -1.78 = likely manipulator · -2.22 to -1.78 = grey zone

    M-Score Trend

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Beneish's 8-variable model estimates the probability of earnings manipulation. An M-Score above -1.78 signals elevated risk — companies in this range have historically been 3-5× more likely to be manipulating earnings. Scores between -2.22 and -1.78 fall in a grey zone warranting further investigation.

    Ownership Breakdown

    Learn more →
    LLY
    Insiders 0.2%Institutions 85.1%Retail & Other 14.8%
    No. of Institutional Holders5,685
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.
    TMO
    Insiders 0.1%Institutions 93.5%Retail & Other 6.4%
    No. of Institutional Holders3,509
    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders — a key signal in Buffett-style analysis. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    High insider ownership aligns management incentives with shareholders. Institutional concentration can indicate smart-money conviction but also crowding risk.

    Insider Buying Activity

    Learn more →
    LLY
    0
    Buys (3M)
    8
    Buys (12M)
    Total value (12M): $4.54M
    MONTARCE LUCAS E
    Chief Financial Officer
    $494,627
    @ $691.79 · 2025-08-15
    ALVAREZ RALPH
    Director
    $500,473
    @ $660.25 · 2025-08-13
    VAN NAARDEN JACOB S.
    Officer
    $647,360
    @ $647.36 · 2025-08-13
    SULZBERGER GABRIELLE
    Director
    $75,018
    @ $641.18 · 2025-08-12
    FYRWALD J. ERIK
    Director
    $1.01M
    @ $642.33 · 2025-08-12
    RICKS DAVID A
    Chief Executive Officer
    $1.05M
    @ $644.77 · 2025-08-12
    SKOVRONSKY DANIEL
    Officer
    $634,405
    @ $634.40 · 2025-08-12
    JACKSON JAMERE
    Director
    $127,913
    @ $639.57 · 2025-08-08
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises
    TMO
    0
    Buys (3M)
    0
    Buys (12M)
    CHAI NELSON J
    Director
    $11,038
    @ $551.90 · 2024-12-09
    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises

    Open market purchases · includes direct & indirect ownership · excludes option exercises.

    Insider Selling Activity

    Learn more →
    LLY
    2
    Sells (3M)
    40
    Sells (12M)
    Total value (12M): $3.63B
    YUFFA ILYA
    Officer
    $2.88M
    @ $1150.77 · 2026-06-10
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $15.75M
    @ $995.36 · 2026-05-06
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $322.38M
    @ $1103.48 · 2026-01-07
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $1.51M
    @ $1085.01 · 2026-01-05
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $3.90M
    @ $1085.04 · 2025-12-29
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $2.85M
    @ $1085.17 · 2025-12-24
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $260,409
    @ $1085.04 · 2025-12-23
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $161.08M
    @ $1095.35 · 2025-11-25
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $17.34M
    @ $1109.30 · 2025-11-25
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $152.06M
    @ $1068.52 · 2025-11-24
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $111.50M
    @ $1058.66 · 2025-11-21
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $39.07M
    @ $1051.66 · 2025-11-20
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $176.10M
    @ $1051.17 · 2025-11-19
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $62.31M
    @ $1034.78 · 2025-11-18
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $10.19M
    @ $1030.68 · 2025-11-17
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $183.80M
    @ $1030.87 · 2025-11-14
    ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
    Officer
    $1.01M
    @ $1010.50 · 2025-11-13
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $48.02M
    @ $1030.26 · 2025-11-13
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $308.41M
    @ $1011.18 · 2025-11-12
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $279.35M
    @ $986.64 · 2025-11-11
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $16.41M
    @ $972.52 · 2025-11-10
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $167.09M
    @ $933.26 · 2025-11-05
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $38.47M
    @ $951.56 · 2025-11-05
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $479,038
    @ $910.72 · 2025-11-04
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $266.65M
    @ $888.83 · 2025-11-03
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $260.17M
    @ $863.35 · 2025-10-31
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $3.16M
    @ $863.24 · 2025-10-10
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $9.04M
    @ $852.49 · 2025-10-09
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $86.23M
    @ $850.27 · 2025-10-08
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $22.72M
    @ $848.01 · 2025-10-07
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $137.04M
    @ $850.22 · 2025-10-06
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $161.22M
    @ $837.93 · 2025-10-03
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $92.50M
    @ $821.55 · 2025-10-02
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $107.36M
    @ $794.15 · 2025-10-01
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $177.29M
    @ $821.47 · 2025-10-01
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $86.79M
    @ $763.39 · 2025-09-30
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $18.06M
    @ $763.09 · 2025-09-19
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $81.53M
    @ $764.65 · 2025-09-18
    ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
    Officer
    $734,930
    @ $734.93 · 2025-08-28
    YUFFA ILYA
    Officer
    $783,762
    @ $627.01 · 2025-08-11
    LILLY ENDOWMENT, INC.
    Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
    $225.42M
    @ $805.07 · 2025-07-24
    ZAKROWSKI DONALD A
    Officer
    $716,410
    @ $716.41 · 2025-05-27
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives
    TMO
    1
    Sells (3M)
    21
    Sells (12M)
    Total value (12M): $110.60M
    PETTITI GIANLUCA
    President
    $226,000
    @ $565.00 · 2026-07-27
    PETTITI GIANLUCA
    President
    $185,064
    @ $462.66 · 2026-04-27
    SHAFER MICHAEL D
    Officer
    $802,536
    @ $499.40 · 2026-03-11
    CASPER MARC N
    Chief Executive Officer
    $2.06M
    @ $514.82 · 2026-03-05
    CASPER MARC N
    Chief Executive Officer
    $5.08M
    @ $507.75 · 2026-03-04
    PETTITI GIANLUCA
    Officer
    $216,480
    @ $541.20 · 2026-02-09
    LAGARDE MICHEL
    Chief Operating Officer
    $12.42M
    @ $563.56 · 2025-12-04
    LAGARDE MICHEL
    Chief Operating Officer
    $36.13M
    @ $582.68 · 2025-12-03
    LOWERY FREDERICK M.
    Officer
    $8.15M
    @ $589.81 · 2025-12-02
    SHAFER MICHAEL D
    Officer
    $6.43M
    @ $600.00 · 2025-11-25
    LAGARDE MICHEL
    Chief Operating Officer
    $2.76M
    @ $594.42 · 2025-11-13
    BRITT LISA P
    Officer
    $622,136
    @ $588.59 · 2025-11-12
    PETTITI GIANLUCA
    Officer
    $1.73M
    @ $580.00 · 2025-11-10
    BRITT LISA P
    Officer
    $5.84M
    @ $571.62 · 2025-11-07
    CASPER MARC N
    Chief Executive Officer
    $13.91M
    @ $571.33 · 2025-10-27
    PETTITI GIANLUCA
    Officer
    $229,660
    @ $574.15 · 2025-10-24
    CASPER MARC N
    Chief Executive Officer
    $200,201
    @ $500.50 · 2025-09-05
    HOLMES JOSEPH R.
    Officer
    $189,662
    @ $492.63 · 2025-08-29
    CASPER MARC N
    Chief Executive Officer
    $5.01M
    @ $500.96 · 2025-08-22
    CASPER MARC N
    Chief Executive Officer
    $248,046
    @ $500.09 · 2025-08-20
    CASPER MARC N
    Chief Executive Officer
    $8.15M
    @ $452.99 · 2025-08-07
    PETTITI GIANLUCA
    Officer
    $191,992
    @ $479.98 · 2025-07-25
    PETTITI GIANLUCA
    Officer
    $164,444
    @ $411.11 · 2025-05-12
    PETTITI GIANLUCA
    Officer
    $128,979
    @ $429.93 · 2025-04-28
    BOXER MICHAEL A
    General Counsel
    $2.01M
    @ $532.59 · 2025-03-10
    CASPER MARC N
    Chief Executive Officer
    $9.33M
    @ $518.16 · 2025-03-05
    SHAFER MICHAEL D
    Officer
    $945,038
    @ $530.92 · 2025-03-03
    LOWERY FREDERICK M.
    Officer
    $9.73M
    @ $531.81 · 2025-02-24
    CHAI NELSON J
    Director
    $8,449
    @ $528.06 · 2025-02-19
    PETTITI GIANLUCA
    Officer
    $175,677
    @ $585.59 · 2025-02-04
    WILLIAMSON STEPHEN
    Chief Financial Officer
    $11.58M
    @ $589.36 · 2025-02-04
    CASPER MARC N
    Chief Executive Officer
    $10.62M
    @ $531.23 · 2024-12-03
    CASPER MARC N
    Chief Executive Officer
    $3.26M
    @ $557.89 · 2024-11-01
    CASPER MARC N
    Chief Executive Officer
    $11.01M
    @ $550.51 · 2024-10-31
    CASPER MARC N
    Chief Executive Officer
    $11.05M
    @ $552.46 · 2024-10-29
    PETTITI GIANLUCA
    Officer
    $168,048
    @ $560.16 · 2024-10-25
    BOXER MICHAEL A
    General Counsel
    $1.12M
    @ $560.16 · 2024-10-25
    CASPER MARC N
    Chief Executive Officer
    $12.17M
    @ $608.45 · 2024-09-04
    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives

    Direct ownership only · excludes indirect, option exercises, planned (10b5-1) sales & derivatives.

    🎭 Mr. Market's Mood

    Learn more →
    LLY
    FearGreed
    😐Neutral(59/100)

    "Market is pricing this stock without strong emotion in either direction"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.
    TMO
    FearGreed
    😏Greed(61/100)

    "Market is optimistic — be cautious and ensure you have a margin of safety"

    Composite sentiment score based on 6 market signals. Inspired by Buffett's "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    Composite sentiment score based on market signals. Inspired by Buffett’s "Mr. Market" allegory — fear = potential opportunity, greed = potential risk. Must be used alongside fundamental analysis, not in isolation.

    ⚖️ Buffett Signal

    Learn more →
    LLY
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Neutral (59)
    TMO
    ⚪Awaiting DCF Data

    The Buffett Signal cross-references market sentiment with DCF valuation. Configure the DCF Analysis above to generate a signal.

    DCF Margin of Safety: N/AMr. Market's Mood: Greed (61)
    View LLY Full AnalysisView TMO Full Analysis

    Frequently Asked Questions: LLY vs TMO

    Is Eli Lilly and Company or Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc more undervalued in 2026?▼

    Based on our discounted cash flow model, LLY trades at a 100.0% margin of safety (intrinsic value $1529604356065 vs. price $1149), compared to TMO's 100.0% margin of safety (intrinsic $151245065994 vs. $574).

    Which stock has a wider economic moat, Eli Lilly and Company or Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc?▼

    LLY scores 73/100 (Wide moat), while TMO scores 60/100 (Narrow moat). The moat score measures competitive advantage durability across ROIC consistency, margin stability, revenue predictability, and reinvestment efficiency.

    Is Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc in financial distress?▼

    TMO's Altman Z-Score of 1.5 places it in the Distress zone, signaling elevated bankruptcy risk. LLY scores 2.0 (Grey zone). The Altman Z-Score is a five-factor model that predicts insolvency within two years; scores below 1.81 indicate significant distress.

    Which stock has higher return on invested capital, Eli Lilly and Company or Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc?▼

    LLY earns 37.8% ROIC versus TMO's 7.2%. A higher ROIC means the company generates more profit per dollar of capital employed, a hallmark of durable competitive advantage in Buffett-style analysis.

    Which dividend is safer, Eli Lilly and Company's or Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc's?▼

    TMO's dividend earns a safety score of 94/100 (Very Safe), compared to LLY's 64/100 (Safe). TMO has raised its dividend for 3 consecutive years.

    LLY vs TMO: Which Is the Better Buy in 2026? | SafetyMargin.io